Democrat defeats Molinaro, flipping key New York House seat blue

Democrat Josh Riley won in New York’s 19th Congressional District, according to Decision Desk HQ, defeating incumbent Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-N.Y.) in a massive victory for Democrats and their quest to take control of the House.

Riley’s win came in his second match-up against Molinaro: The two New Yorkers squared off for the district’s House seat in 2022, a race Molinaro won by 1.6 percentage points.

The victory is a massive boon for Democrats, who had their eyes locked on the race and saw the area as critical to their path back to the majority. Democrats need to net four seats to take control of the lower chamber.

And it puts an end to Molinaro's short stint in the House, during which at times he emerged as a close ally of Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.).

The Empire State district broke for President Biden by 4.6 percentage points in 2020 before Molinaro narrowly captured it last cycle. Biden’s win, however, had fueled hope among Democrats that they could move the seat back into their column this cycle. Cook Political Report rated the seat a “toss-up.”

Riley pulled ahead of Molinaro this time around after running a campaign that leaned in on issues like immigration and women’s reproductive rights, two matters that emerged as of top concern to voters this cycle.

In a sign of the race’s importance, top House lawmakers of both political stripes flocked to the district to campaign with their respective candidates. Less than a week before Election Day, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) appeared at a rally with Riley, and Johnson visited Molinaro in his district.

Riley clinched victory with help from a massive cash advantage. Riley brought in $8.76 million, according to filings with the Federal Elections Commission, which was far more than Molinaro’s nearly $5.12 million.

Riley also led the money game in terms of outside spending: $5.42 million in support of Riley, compared to $2.95 million for Molinaro, according to OpenSecrets.