Blinken struggles to heal US-Israel rift after Hamas leader’s death

Secretary of State Antony Blinken left Israel this week with little tangible progress on scaling up humanitarian deliveries to the Gaza Strip or brokering a cease-fire and hostage release deal, despite U.S. hopes that the killing of Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar last week would be a turning point toward ending the war.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has shown little interest in diplomacy or halting military operations, instead pointing to Sinwar’s death as evidence that he was right to ignore Western warnings about Israel expanding its crushing war on Hamas.

“It is now clear to everyone, in Israel and in the world, why we insisted on not ending the war,” Netanyahu said shortly after Sinwar’s death was confirmed.

Following a two-and-a-half-hour meeting with Blinken on Tuesday, Netanyahu said Sinwar’s death was “likely to have a positive influence on the return of the hostages … and the day after the war.”

It was one of the few times Netanyahu has publicly expressed openness to discussing the future of the Gaza Strip absent Hamas leadership.

Still, Netanyahu’s words and actions over the past week demonstrate the gap with the U.S., as President Biden pushes for a weeks-long cease-fire deal in Gaza — contingent on Hamas releasing hostages — that would theoretically create space to negotiate the terms for an end to the war.

“The Israelis are no longer taking the advice of the United States, particularly when it comes to Gaza, across the board,” Steven Cook, senior fellow for Middle East and North Africa studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, said during a press call following Sinwar’s death.

“And there’s a sense [in Israel] ... that the United States has just been wrong on a variety of things,” he continued, “that Israel needs to stop taking advice from people who couldn’t get it done in, you know, Afghanistan and other places. That may be unfair, but that was their perspective on things.”

The region remains on edge as it awaits an expected Israeli attack against Iran in retaliation for the the country's Oct. 1 strike against Israel. On Sunday, Hezbollah in Lebanon, which is backed by Iran, targeted Netanyahu’s personal home on the Israeli coast with an explosive drone.

The U.S. has deployed a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense missile defense system in anticipation of blowback from Israel's looming strike on Iran, but U.S. officials have reportedly said they received assurances from the Israelis that they would avoid provocative targets like Iran’s oil and nuclear facilities.

Netanyahu on Tuesday said he told Blinken the Hezbollah attack was a “dramatically significant issue that must not be ignored.”

While Netanyahu opened the door to postwar planning in his meeting with Blinken, the U.S. and Israel appear far apart on what any potential plan might look like.

The U.S. has repeatedly expressed its opposition to Israel’s long-term occupation of Gaza, suggesting a Palestinian-led administration should take control. Netanyahu proposed in February a potential plan that generally calls for a years-long military occupation of the Gaza Strip.

“Right now, the focus needs to be on getting the hostages home, ending this war, and having a clear plan for what follows,” Blinken said in remarks to the press on Wednesday in Tel Aviv, before heading to Saudi Arabia for more discussions. He will also travel to Qatar, one of the main intermediaries with Hamas.

“Saudi Arabia is a critical player in virtually all of these issues, whether it’s potentially Gaza and plans for what follows the end of the war, whether it’s Lebanon, whether it’s dealing with challenges posed by Iran — we’ll be talking about all of that.”

Cook said one of the fundamental gaps between the Biden administration and Israel is that the U.S. “wants deals” and “the Israelis want to win.”

“The Israelis look at this in an entirely different way. They want to change the rules of the game,” he said.

“And the deals that the Biden administration has on offer are not changing the rules of the game. And there’s the rub. And that’s the source of friction and tension. I’m not suggesting that the Israelis are right here, but that’s the difference between the two governments that’s a real problem.”

It’s unclear when cease-fire negotiations might resume after Sinwar’s death. One question is if Hamas will choose a new leader or a point person to participate in talks, given the fate of Sinwar and his predecessor Ismail Haniyeh, who was killed in Iran earlier this year.

Basem Naim, a leader in Hamas's politburo, responded “No” by text when asked by The Hill if there was any progress on negotiations for a cease-fire and hostage release, or if Hamas would agree to release the hostages.

Israeli officials are reportedly pursuing two parallel efforts for a possible truce and hostage release: a broad cease-fire in Gaza and Lebanon and hostage release, and a separate plan that begins with a two-week truce in Gaza in exchange for releasing five hostages.

The U.S. plan, first proposed by Biden at the end of May, called for a six-week cease-fire and release of hostages, the release of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails and increasing humanitarian aid deliveries into Gaza. The six weeks would be used to demonstrate good faith and build trust to negotiate additional weeks of calm and an eventual end to the war.

Previous talks fell apart as some officials blamed Sinwar’s stonewalling, but Netanyahu also faced criticism for moving the goal posts on keeping Israel’s military forces in control of key territory in Gaza.

Blinken, meeting Tuesday with families of hostages held by Hamas, said he discussed with them “the plan that we’ve had on the table and the work that we’re doing on that plan, looking at new frameworks of foreign relations as a possibility.”

The U.S. has expressed growing frustration with the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin raised alarm in a letter on Oct. 13 that humanitarian assistance getting into Gaza had decreased by half, and they told Israel it had 30 days to remove barriers to the flow of assistance going into Gaza or risk jeopardizing U.S. weapons deliveries.

“Since that letter, yes, we’ve seen progress, but it’s not enough,” Blinken said Wednesday.

Shira Efron, senior director of policy at the Israel Policy Forum, said that the Blinken and Austin letter was taken “very, very, very seriously” in Israel.

“This language was not anticipated, even though they knew something was going to come. This is seen as a stark warning. And we’re already seeing the prime minister ordering a surge in humanitarian supplies,” she said during a panel hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Israeli media reported Saturday that Netanyahu ordered the number of aid trucks entering Gaza per day to increase to 250, but the U.S. has called for that number to be 350.

Israeli statistics document 797 aid trucks have entered Gaza between Oct. 1 and 23 — an estimated 35 trucks per day. That’s compared to about 225 trucks per day that entered Gaza in April after a pressure campaign by the Biden administration.

Efron said the April pressure campaign demonstrated the power of U.S. leverage.

“I hope this will be leveraged into action and shifting away from just counting trucks to measuring outcomes,” she said.

“And I do think that the U.S. can bring Israel to do this and put their leverage also, by the way, on the Palestinian Authority where it’s needed, the U.N. to be less principled at times, and also Egypt can be a more constructive partner.”