Artificial intelligence can help predict the next pandemic
What if scientists could anticipate the likelihood of an outbreak before it starts? What if, instead of scrambling to contain an emerging threat, we could prevent it?
In the last year, waves of illnesses such as Marburg virus, Mpox and avian influenza (H5N1) have underscored the need for enhanced preparedness to prevent future outbreaks. While the world continues to grapple with the long-term effects of COVID-19, scientists are working to harness the full potential of artificial intelligence in global health security through AI-driven modeling and predictive analytics — hoping to foresee potential outbreaks, assess risk factors and create early warning systems that can save lives.
Researchers at the University of Florida’s Emerging Pathogens Institute, for example, published an algorithm capable of predicting which COVID-19 variant in circulation today is most likely to become dominant in the next three months. This algorithm was used to spot new variants of concern, and it correctly identified 11 out of 11 variants a full 10 weeks before they were officially labeled by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
By training these algorithms on publicly available genetic sequences of SARS-CoV-2, scientists can continue to predict which mutations will pose the greatest threat to public health.
The potential of AI in the lab stretches far beyond COVID-19, however. When applied to other infectious diseases like HIV/AIDS, AI-driven pattern recognition can uncover risk factors that contribute to differences in treatments and outcomes, and even locate where transmission remains stubbornly high.
Months prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, global change studies demonstrated AI’s potential in informing viral emergence trends to potentially beat the next outbreak. Through built datasets and experiential learning, the application of AI for cross-species transmission has been used to understand the transmission of zoonotic diseases, primarily vector-borne diseases, as well as the impacts of global change on disease emergence and spread.
Infectious disease research can leverage both novel and existing data across systems to answer computational questions about the fundamental issues of anticipating emerging pathogens. Such studies are multidisciplinary, involving groups of scientists learning more about host-virus networks, as well as data fluency and knowledge translation.
Given the vast amounts of data being processed today, there is a critical need to enhance the quality of the technology used to analyze it, and to communicate this need to the broader scientific community. Integrating AI into the study of infectious diseases emphasizes the need to strengthen research capabilities for the future, which means pushing the envelope on scientific advancement as it relates to all types of pathogens.
Bacterial diseases like anthrax, for instance, also benefit from AI-enhanced detection techniques. In Southwest Texas, where anthrax transmission is intertwined with how animals interact with their landscape, machine learning is making a world of a difference. Researchers are developing an AI-based model that can forecast the likelihood of an outbreak based on what the first few months of animal cases look like. The goal? To develop a way to determine the likelihood of an outbreak with two months’ notice.
Florida is a top-ranking state for U.S. crop production and serves as a model for disease management in parts of the world with similar climates. Global plant health, too, can benefit from the smart solutions offered by AI. Farmers can use AI to design and build smart agricultural systems tailored for disease management and minimize the impact of disasters on agricultural systems. Agricultural workers can use AI models to support food security and maximize the way growers sanitize tools and practice crop rotation.
By feeding AI models decades of data, algorithms become familiar with varying levels of greenness that correspond to differing amounts of vegetation in an area. After showing the algorithm partial patterns, researchers teach it to find matches from previous years and later fill in the gaps of incomplete data to inform predictions for future years.
These applications are just the beginning. AI’s potential to detect and prevent disease is limitless, and allows us to address public health in a manner that is proactive, not just reactive. The fight to prevent the next pandemic can be different.
Marco Salemi, Ph.D., is the interim director of the University of Florida Emerging Pathogens Institute and a professor in the University of Florida College of Medicine’s Department of Pathology, Immunology and Laboratory Medicine.
-
A swarm of underwater drones can help artificial reefs off Cyprus bring back sea life, officials say
Officials say a first-of-its-kind project will use a swarm of small, independent submersibles to monitor, protect and provide data on offshore artificial reefs whose purpose is to attract new ...ABC News - 5d -
China's Alibaba sees revenue surge on back of artificial intelligence, e-commerce
Chinese e-commerce firm Alibaba Group Holding posted its fastest revenue growth in over a year, beating analyst expectations as it capitalizes on the artificial intelligence boom in ChinaABC News - Feb. 20 -
Move over H5N1: The next pandemic is already here
The widespread use of antibiotics in industrial animal agriculture is contributing to the rise of antibiotic resistance, with over 35,000 Americans expected to die this year from a preventable ...The Hill - Feb. 21 -
DOGE cuts could hamper U.S. response to next pandemic
Around 700 people have been laid off from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in recent weeks due to cuts from the Trump administration. Some public health experts are expressing ...CBS News - 3d -
How DeepSeek used distillation to train its artificial intelligence model, and what it means for companies such as OpenAI
DeepSeek's sudden emergence has put the AI industry's focus on a technique called distillation.CNBC - Feb. 21
More from The Hill
-
Are AOC and Jasmine Crockett sabotaging Democrats’ 2028 chances?
Either Crockett or Ocasio-Cortez getting the Democratic nomination for president in 2028 would be a dream come true and a prayer answered for the Trump-Vance White House,The Hill - 29m -
Trump economic approval ratings sag as inflation fears grow
Polls show that Americans’ confidence is slipping in President Trump’s ability to handle the economy – the most important issue in the 2024 election and the one that likely carried Trump to a ...The Hill - 29m -
GOP governors rush to Trump's defense after ‘jarring’ spat with Zelensky
Red state governors were quick to throw their support behind President Trump following a tense back-and-forth with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office Friday afternoon, citing ...The Hill - 40m -
Maher on ‘deplorable’ Trump-Zelensky clash: ‘The Real Housewives of the White House’
Comedian Bill Maher weighed in on the Oval Office blowup between President Trump, Vice President Vance and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, calling the contentious meeting the “The Real ...The Hill - 1h -
Administration channels Neville Chamberlain with actions on Ukraine
The Biden administration is reportedly seeking a peace deal in Ukraine that gives Russia control over certain territories, despite warnings from allies and critics that this would be appeasement ...The Hill - 1h
More in Politics
-
Trump economic approval ratings sag as inflation fears grow
Polls show that Americans’ confidence is slipping in President Trump’s ability to handle the economy – the most important issue in the 2024 election and the one that likely carried Trump to a ...The Hill - 29m -
Are AOC and Jasmine Crockett sabotaging Democrats’ 2028 chances?
Either Crockett or Ocasio-Cortez getting the Democratic nomination for president in 2028 would be a dream come true and a prayer answered for the Trump-Vance White House,The Hill - 29m -
GOP governors rush to Trump's defense after ‘jarring’ spat with Zelensky
Red state governors were quick to throw their support behind President Trump following a tense back-and-forth with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office Friday afternoon, citing ...The Hill - 40m -
Maher on ‘deplorable’ Trump-Zelensky clash: ‘The Real Housewives of the White House’
Comedian Bill Maher weighed in on the Oval Office blowup between President Trump, Vice President Vance and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, calling the contentious meeting the “The Real ...The Hill - 1h -
Administration channels Neville Chamberlain with actions on Ukraine
The Biden administration is reportedly seeking a peace deal in Ukraine that gives Russia control over certain territories, despite warnings from allies and critics that this would be appeasement ...The Hill - 1h