Trump economic approval ratings sag as inflation fears grow

Polls show that Americans’ confidence is slipping in President Trump’s ability to handle the economy – the most important issue in the 2024 election and the one that likely carried Trump to a second presidential term.

Concerns about affordability, jobs, and inflation are weighing on Trump’s economic approval rating against a backdrop of faltering consumer sentiment and flashing economic warning signs, including a negative forecast for first-quarter GDP growth from the Atlanta Fed.

According to February Gallup polling, 42 percent of Americans are giving a thumbs up to Trump’s economic stewardship while 54 percent are giving him a thumbs down.

Approval of Trump’s handling of the economy also fell to 39 percent from 43 percent in polling released last week by Reuters/Ipsos.

This is notably a lower mark compared to the start of Trump’s first term in 2017, when his economic approval stood at 53 percent. While this could reflect less enthusiasm about the economy more generally, it is also a notable thing to watch for the president’s team.

Trump does still rank well above former President Biden on the economy. Biden left office with 34-percent approval on the economy after overseeing the highest inflation in 40 years during the course of his presidency.

On the economy, some polls still indicate Americans are worried about the direction.

Polling released this week by Reuters/Ipsos shows that 44 percent of Americans think the employment and jobs situation is heading in the wrong direction, compared to 33 percent who think it’s heading in the right direction.

The same poll found that 53 percent think the economy is on the wrong track, compared to 30 percent who think it’s improving; and a whopping 64 percent think their cost of living is getting worse while just 20 percent think it’s getting better.

At the macro level, new worries emerged Friday about the general direction of the economy.

The Atlanta Fed's real-time GDP forecast projected negative 1.5 percent growth for the first quarter. That’s much worse than just last week, when it was predicting 2.3 percent positive growth for the first quarter. A month ago, it was registering 3.9 percent growth.

Trump’s tariffs have prompted some economic concerns. Most of Trump’s threatened tariffs have not been imposed so far, but more are scheduled to come into play in the coming weeks.

“There is early evidence that current policy uncertainty is impacting consumer and business confidence,” Francis Yared and others wrote for Deutsche Bank in a Thursday investor note. “The current policy sequencing may result in the market pricing a heightened risk of recession.”

Consumer sentiment fell off a cliff in February, as measured by the University of Michigan, sliding nearly 10 percent from its January reading and nearly 16 percent from a year ago.

Year-ahead inflation expectations in the survey increased to 4.3 percent this month from 3.3 percent in January, the highest reading since November 2023.

Trump has acknowledged the recent rise in inflation, which has put a pin in the Fed’s schedule of stimulative interest rate cuts. Trump has also been quick to distance himself from it.

“Inflation is back. No, think of it: Inflation’s back,” Trump said on the Fox News Channel television network earlier this month. “And they said, ‘Oh, Trump,’ and I had nothing to do with that.”

A big pillar of Trump’s economic plans this year is to extend his 2017 tax cuts and to add to them. Trump has pledged to end taxes on tipping, and to end taxes on overtime, among other things.

Yet some question just how popular the tax cuts are.

Fifty-six percent of Americans disapproved of the tax cuts when they were first signed into law, while just 29 percent approved, according to Gallup polling from 2018.

That margin decreased somewhat over the subsequent year, shrinking to 46 percent disapproving and 39 percent approving, though it still remained in negative territory overall.

Democrats aiming to get back into power are hoping to use the GOP’s tax plans against Republicans, even as they also attack the majority for potential cuts to Medicaid.

“[Republicans] are asking for something that’s highly unpopular with the general public. It’s a great thing for extremely affluent people [and] high earners, but for average families what they’re suggesting is not palatable,” Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-Mass.) told The Hill in January.

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