Arizona braces for bruising governor's race

Republicans see a prime pickup opportunity next year in the Arizona governor’s race, where Democratic incumbent Gov. Katie Hobbs faces a tough reelection in a state President Trump won by more than 5 points.

Two Republicans so far have entered the race: developer Karrin Taylor Robson, who ran for governor in 2022 but lost in the primary to Kari Lake, and Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), a former chair of the House Freedom Caucus.

Yet even as the GOP has reasons to be optimistic, the party also acknowledges beating Hobbs will be no easy feat, seeing as as she enjoys the power of incumbency and the GOP will have to contend with a potentially unfavorable midterm environment.

“At first glance Gov. Hobbs should be [a] dead woman walking,” said GOP strategist and Trump campaign alum Brian Seitchik.

Seitchik argued Hobbs didn’t have any real accomplishments “and has shown no ability to persuade a Republican Legislature to pass any significant legislation that she wants,” but he also acknowledged that the GOP was going to have a “very tough fight for the nomination” between the Republican contenders.

Hobbs narrowly eked out a win for her first term in 2022 against Lake, a former local news anchor who questioned the results of the 2020 election.

Republicans in the state argue Hobbs, who has set records with the number of vetoes she has cast against the GOP-controlled state Legislature, has little to show for in her time as governor.

“I think the vetoes are a double-edged sword,” said one Arizona Republican strategist who requested anonymity to speak candidly.

“We’ve seen in other places where governors can run on that, but in many ways, these legislative races this last cycle, where she went all in on flipping the Legislature, were a repudiation, where the whole campaign was about, ‘We need a check and a balance on Katie Hobbs. We can't have one-party control,’” he added.

Democrats, meanwhile, describe GOP lawmakers as unserious, pointing to their recent priorities like legislation that would require the academic standards of geography to include “instruction of the Gulf of America” — President Trump’s renaming of the Gulf of Mexico — in schools.

“I just don't take anything that comes out of their mouth seriously,” said Democratic strategist Rodd McLeod. “We have lower unemployment here in Arizona than the nation does. We have higher job growth in Arizona than the rest of the nation does.”

Democratic Governors Association (DGA) spokesperson Sam Newton noted Hobbs’s work on the state’s water supply and border security. Hobbs recently announced the formation of a joint task force aimed at tackling the border’s security vulnerabilities and transnational criminal organizations.

“Her promise was to put sanity over chaos, and so when there's extreme partisan legislation that would hurt [the state] … she stands up and stops it,” Newton said. “At the same time, she puts politics aside and works with Republicans,” he continued, noting her investments in border security and her work on the fentanyl crisis.

Some of the state’s most prominent Democrats — Sens. Mark Kelly (D) and Ruben Gallego (D) — have also been vocally supportive of Hobbs. Asked whether he was backing her reelection, Gallego responded “absolutely.”

“I’ve worked with her on border issues, economic issues, issues like clean air, very accessible to voters, to me, we've got a good partnership,” Kelly told The Hill. “She’s got a great story to tell for her reelection and she should be our next governor.”

Hobbs is also not without resources, currently sitting on $3.4 million cash on hand.

Yet Republicans believe they might be able to change historical headwinds during the midterm cycle and achieve an upset at the governor’s mansion — despite the fact that an incumbent Arizona governor hasn’t lost reelection since 1966.

Robson and Biggs both have their own advantages in the race. For Robson, she’s previously run for governor before and has the personal resources to help finance a second run, which could take pressure off outside groups like the Republican Governors Association (RGA) and allow them to focus their resources on other races.

While Robson is in the mold of the more mainstream, business-minded Republican, Biggs is more likely to enjoy the support of GOP activists in the state given his conservative bona fides as a former House Freedom Caucus chair.

Robson also touts the fact that Trump expressed support for her during a Turning Point USA event last year, even before she entered the race.

“Katie Hobbs has been a total disaster for Arizona. She’s left the border wide open, given taxpayer money to illegal immigrants, and has created a water crisis for Arizona,” her campaign told The Hill in a statement. “President Trump endorsed Karrin because he knows she’s a winner who will work with him to secure the border and is the candidate to defeat crazy, radical Katie Hobbs.”

While Robson's team says she has Trump’s endorsement, Biggs’s allies assert it’s still an open question.

“I have not seen a post on Truth Social with his unequivocal endorsement of KTR,” said Sean Noble, a Republican consultant who’s supportive of Biggs. “Until that happens, I think that this is an open question. This could be a situation in which he endorses Biggs, or he endorses both, but he hasn't officially endorsed anyone.”

While the GOP primary could still see others enter the race, some donors are already starting to weigh their options.

Eric Stenson, co-founder of accounting firm Stenson Tamaddon, told The Hill in a text message that he was “most likely to back Robson because I think she will be the best for economic development,” adding he could also see supporting Turning Point USA’s Charlie Kirk.

An open question will be how messy the Republican primary could potentially get — a scenario that the party will be eager to avoid given how volatile the 2022 GOP primary became between Robson, Lake and others.

“I do expect that the candidates will bring up what they see as chinks in the armor because of voting or positions that have been taken in those public proceedings,” said former Rep. Matt Salmon (R-Ariz.), who ran for governor last cycle before dropping out and endorsing Robson.

But he suggested neither Biggs nor Robson was running a campaign akin to Lake's.

“I don’t think either of them subscribe to the idea of … personal destruction,” he said.

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