Florida governor's race exposes DeSantis-MAGA fissures

President Trump’s endorsement of Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) for Florida governor is revealing fissures among the state’s Republicans in a state that has become the center of the GOP universe.

Trump’s endorsement is extremely valuable in Florida given his widespread popularity in the state. The public backing of Donalds, who announced his candidacy for governor on Tuesday, has led many to ask whether the primary is effectively over.

But on Monday, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), who has also played a starring role in the state’s GOP wins, took a swipe at Donalds, suggesting he has not played a role in conservative wins in that state. The governor then went on to tout his wife, Florida first lady Casey DeSantis, as someone who would be able to take his record “to the next level.”

The developments could be setting the stage for a potentially bruising GOP primary, one that resurfaces tensions that go back to DeSantis’s presidential primary against Trump.

DeSantis and Donalds fell out over the congressman endorsing Trump over the governor in the 2024 Republican presidential primary, as well as over state education guidelines set by DeSantis on African American history in 2023.

“Here’s the bottom line: The governor does not want Byron to be the next governor,” said one Florida Republican operative.

Initially, DeSantis had his sights set on then-Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody to be his successor in the state’s GOP primary. However, DeSantis ended up tapping her to replace Secretary of State Marco Rubio in the Senate. That appeared to clear the field for Donalds, who has not jumped into the race but has told donors he plans to launch a bid.

That has led the governor and first lady to seriously consider a potential gubernatorial bid for the latter.

“She’s not definitively in but leaning toward getting in,” the operative told The Hill, noting the couple has made calls to donors about the possibility.

But Trump’s endorsement of Donalds on Friday shook up the dynamic last week as DeSantis and the first lady were preparing to attend the National Governors Association Dinner on Saturday. The conservative outlet The Floridian first reported Thursday that DeSantis was planning to meet with Trump during the gathering to float the first lady as a candidate. But Trump endorsed Donalds on Truth Social on Thursday evening.

“Trump’s endorsement of Byron Donalds throws a wrench into DeSantis’s plans, turning Florida’s 2026 GOP primary into a battle for the party’s future,” said Dan Eberhart, a Florida-based GOP donor. “It’s MAGA muscle vs. the DeSantis dynasty — Florida Republicans now have a choice to make.”

But not all Florida Republicans think the governor's race has entered that stage yet.

“The MAGA base in Florida is still the DeSantis base,” the Florida Republican operative said.

Early polling shows that Casey DeSantis has an edge when it comes to name ID. A poll released last week by the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research lab found that 33 percent of registered voters in Florida had never heard of the first lady, while 66 percent said they had never heard of Byron Donalds.

“You don’t know what [Donalds is] going to be like as an executive vs. Casey DeSantis, who would be a continuation of Ron DeSantis’s legacy,” the operative said.

Casey DeSantis, who is a former broadcast journalist, has played a major role in her husband’s campaigns, including his run for president. That experience has certainly boosted her name ID, but other Republicans say it may not be enough to overpower Trump’s endorsement.

“To have the president who won the state of Florida by over 10 points endorse or pre-endorse a nominee for governor in the emphatic way that he did it is an earthquake and a thunderclap in Florida politics,” said Justin Sayfie, a Florida Republican strategist.

“It’s hard to know how any person, any individual will perform as a candidate for the first time, so that’s a question mark,” he said. “She’s clearly not going to be receiving the endorsement from Trump.”

Sayfie pointed to the impact Trump’s endorsement had in the 2018 GOP gubernatorial primary, when he threw his support behind Ron DeSantis, who went on to defeat then-rising star and state Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam to become governor.

But others argue that Trump’s endorsement record in Florida is not perfect. Last year, DeSantis campaigned against a ballot measure known as Amendment 3, which would have legalized recreational marijuana in the state. Trump endorsed the measure, but it ended up failing in November. Additionally, Trump’s pick in the Republican primary for the Florida's 7th Senate District, David Shoar, lost to DeSantis’s pick, Tom Leek, who now represents the district.

Donalds has said he is “honored to have President Trump’s complete and total endorsement.” Donalds told The Hill on Friday he has not spoken to DeSantis about his expected gubernatorial run, but he said, “I know we will.” When asked whether DeSantis will endorse him, Donalds said “it’s too early for that.”

Donalds told Fox News' Sean Hannity that on Tuesday “It’s very early” when asked about the possibility of the first lady jumping into the Republican primary.

“I’m the only person in this race, so we’ll see what happens,” Donalds said. “I’m excited to have the full endorsement of President Trump. He has a lot of faith in me.”

DeSantis took a more aggressive tone when asked whether he would endorse Donalds in Tampa on Monday.

“I think people look at it and say you’ve got a guy like Byron, he just hasn’t been a part of any of the victories that we’ve had here over the left over these last years. He’s just not been a part of it. He’s been in other states campaigning doing that and that’s fine, but OK, then deliver results up there,” the governor said.

Despite differences over candidates, DeSantis has proven he is willing to be in lockstep with Trump on policy. On Monday, DeSantis announced the launch of Florida’s Department of Government Efficiency task force, taking a cue from the Trump administration. And earlier this month, DeSantis signed immigration legislation aimed at helping Trump on the issue.

“I think the beef on one hand, it’s slightly overplayed. He agrees with Trump completely on the agenda,” said Ford O’Connell, a Florida Republican strategist. “What they disagree on is endorsements.”

Updated at 10:20 p.m. EDT

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