After Election Day, expect more questions than answers
Today is an unusually fitting date to ask what will happen the day after America’s presidential election — the first anniversary of Hamas’s savage attack that killed approximately 1,200 Israelis.
In the year since, the Middle East has been in even greater turmoil. Israel has declared war against Hamas and has emasculated Hezbollah, decapitating much of its leadership, including Hassan Nasrallah.
How that conflict plays out is not the focus of this column. Rather, it is this: Will this election have as grave and profound consequences for America and Americans as Oct. 7 had for Israel and its region?
Will America have elected its next president by Nov. 6? Will the election be contested as it was in 2020, when Donald Trump denied losing, calling the vote “rigged?” Will it resemble 2000, when the election dispute over Florida's vote went all the way to the Supreme Court, to be settled in mid-December? Will it be like the election of Rutherford B. Hayes in 1876, which wasn't settled until March 2, three days before his inauguration, due to disputes over 20 electoral votes from Southern states?
Second, will there be violence? Will the Jan. 6 riots be repeated, possibly on a much larger scale, following the certification of electoral votes in the Capitol?
Third, if there is no clear winner on Nov. 6, will America have sufficient resilience and perseverance to cope with any outcome?
Finally, will foreign adversaries exploit any major irregularities in the vote to disrupt further the American political system?
Ominously, Nov. 5 is Guy Fawkes Day in Britain, the anniversary of the failed 1605 Gunpowder Plot to blow up Parliament. Because this election appears to be very close and likely to be decided by a handful of states and dozens of districts in the Electoral College, recounts seem inevitable.
Imagine the year 2000 on steroids. That year, there were major court cases in just one state, with Bush v. Gore being the principal one. But could America’s legal and political system resolve dozens of legal cases in multiple states, challenging the vote before Inauguration Day on Jan. 20?
In the case of a 269 to 269 tie, or some other scenario where no candidate gets to 270, the Electoral College vote would not be able to produce an outright winner. The House of Representatives would then elect the president and the Senate the vice president. Here, all sorts of mischief is possible, depending upon which party controls each House of Congress.
Under the procedure outlined in the Constitution, each state House delegation gets just a single vote. One vote each for Wyoming and Vermont, one each for Texas and California. States with evenly split delegations may be forced to abstain. One candidate could have won the national popular vote by a vast amount, yet lose under this arcane process.
And when the Senate chooses the vice president, there's a chance the president-elect and vice president-elect will come from different parties. How would that work out in practice? Probably not well, given the frailties of divided government.
Should the process drag on past Jan. 20, the Speaker of the House would become the acting president. That would certainly test the system and make governing even more difficult, especially since the nation is so divided politically.
Would adversaries, particularly China and Russia, act to exploit such an outcome? There is no doubt they will and already have intervened to influence the outcome, much as the United States did in other places during the Cold War. That is to be expected.
Russia likely benefits most by laying off and letting the U.S. deal with the election chaos. But is it in Chinese or Russian interests to maximize American disruption? If both believe America is in decline, why not accelerate that decline? It is hard to identify exactly what either one could do to advance that disruption.
Finally, do Russia or China have a preference as to who should be president? Trump supporters argue that Trump will be tough on both, and that by default Kamala Harris is their favorite since she, like Joe Biden, will be weak on China and Russia.
But Chinese and Russian leaders may not agree. To them, Harris is inexperienced and untested. In a crisis, because of this inexperience, she may overreact to dispel any perceptions of weakness. That could be worrisome.
There is no single conclusion to be drawn other than that Nov. 6 may be a day of reckoning.
Harlan Ullman, Ph.D., is a senior adviser at the Atlantic Council and the prime author of the “shock and awe” military doctrine. His 12th book is “The Fifth Horseman and the New MAD: How Massive Attacks of Disruption Became the Looming Existential Danger to a Divided Nation and the World at Large."
Date: |
-
Politics - The Hill
Are hurricanes intensifying more rapidly than ever before?
Rapid intensification is defined by the National Hurricane Center as an increase of at least 30 knots (about 35 mph) in maximum sustained winds within a 24-hour period, which can mean a jump of two ...3 hours ago -
Tech - GameSpot
The '90s Called And These Tamagotchi Deals Answered For Prime Big Deal Days
Amazon's Prime Big Deal Days event officially kicks off on October 8, but the online retailer--and its competitors--have already begun to roll out deals on all manner of products. If you're in ...1 hour ago -
Politics - The Hill
Johnson sidesteps question on whether Trump lost 2020 election: ‘This is a gotcha game’
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) on Sunday sidestepped a question about whether former President Trump lost the 2020 presidential election, calling it a “gotcha game” that he would not play. ABC’s ...5 hours ago - Donald Trump -
Sports - CBS Sports
Erik ten Hag isn't the answer to turn Manchester United around, but the club keeps asking the wrong questions
United are stuck in midtable and will be whether they stick with Ten Hag or decide to change the man in charge1 hour ago -
Sports - Yahoo Sports
Aaron Jones (hip) is currently expected to be ready to return after the bye
The Vikings' offense is different without running back Aaron Jones.20 hours ago -
World - The Guardian
Harris sidesteps questions on Netanyahu and taxing the rich; Georgia’s top court reinstates abortion ban – US elections live
Vice-president’s 60 Minutes interview to air tonight; state supreme court reinstates ban a week after a lower court struck it down. Can’t get enough of the US election? Get our free app and sign ...19 minutes ago - Abortion -
Business - MarketWatch
Scholar Rock’s stock soars more than 315% on positive trial of treatment for spinal muscular atrophy
The Phase 3 trial of apitegromab showed statistically significant improvement in motor function.5 hours ago
More from The Hill
-
Politics - The Hill
Supreme Court justices return to bench for new term
Supreme Court justices returned to the bench for the first time since leaving for their summer recess as their new term officially commenced Monday. “I have the honor to announce, on behalf of ...33 minutes ago -
Politics - The Hill
What to know about Hurricane Milton: Florida prepares for storm
Hurricane Milton rapidly intensified into a Category 5 storm on Monday, as Floridians brace for the yet another major storm to make landfall this week. The storm comes less than two weeks after ...38 minutes ago - Florida -
Politics - The Hill
US hits Hamas funding network with sanctions on attack anniversary
The Treasury Department announced Monday, the anniversary of Hamas's Oct. 7 attack on Israel, it would be sanctioning part of the Palestinian militant group’s funding network. The Treasury said its ...42 minutes ago -
Politics - The Hill
Hurricane Milton Live Wobble Tracker: Map shows real-time movements
Hurricane Milton, which reached Category 5 strength Monday, is heading right for Florida's west coast, with a potential landfall near or at Tampa Bay.55 minutes ago -
Politics - The Hill
Will Milton make landfall as a Category 5 hurricane?
Hurricane Milton rapidly intensified into a Category 5 storm on Monday, but will it stay that way?1 hour ago