12:30 Report — The Trump transition begins

12:30 REPORT

It’s finally Friday! What a week it has been. I hope you can all find a way to unwind this weekend. I’m personally planning to decorate for the holidays. I know it’s early, but Thanksgiving is late this year! Here’s what’s in this edition:

The Trump administration is starting to take shape.
DDHQ estimates a 93 percent chance Republicans will keep the House.
What have we learned from the exit polls?
Expect a culture war counteroffensive in Trump’s administration.
Reese’s is selling a massive, deconstructed peanut butter cup.

I’m Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what’s coming up. Send tips, commentary, feedback and cookie recipes to cmartel@thehill.com. Did someone forward this newsletter to you? Sign up here. 

🔀 Post-Election Moves

It’s a whole new world:

Come January, President-elect Trump will return to the White House. Republicans will take the gavel in the Senate and likely keep control of the House.

The first piece of the transition puzzle: Trump made his first selection for his White House. His campaign manager, Susie Wiles, will serve as his chief of staff. Wiles is a widely respected Republican operative from Florida. She’s worked for Republicans all over the political spectrum, most notably for Sen. Mitt Romney’s (Utah) 2012 presidential bid and Sen. Rick Scott’s (Fla.) 2010 gubernatorial campaign. Read more on Wiles

His next step: Finding candidates to serve in his administration. The Hill’s Brett Samuels reports that the transition team has already started vetting candidates. Some names in the mix:

Tesla CEO Elon Musk likely won’t have a formal role but may be influential in the administration.
Former independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could oversee health and food regulation in some form.
Trump adviser Stephen Miller served as a senior adviser in Trump’s first administration and may do so again. He was the architect of some of Trump’s immigration policies.
Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) is a potential pick for secretary of State.
North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum (R) could be Energy secretary.
Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.) could lead the State, Treasury or Commerce Departments.
Former national security adviser Robert O’Brien could be Trump’s pick for secretary of State.
Mike Waltz (R-Fla.) could lead the Defense Department or Department of Veterans Affairs.
Trump ally Richard Grenell could be in the mix for the State Department.
Hedge fund manager John Paulson may be a pick for Treasury.
Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.) could serve as attorney general.

More names to watch

➤ WHAT TRUMP’S WIN MEANS:

For the U.S. military: “The plan includes controversial cultural war issues, reducing wasteful defense spending and decreasing the number of generals in the military, although it also includes less divisive measures, such as enhancing nuclear strategy, prioritizing China and building a resilient military.” (The Hill)

For government funding: If Republicans win the trifecta, they will have to decide whether to complete their annual funding work this year or push December’s funding deadline to next year, when Trump is in office. The latter would give Republicans more control to fund the government as they please, but it also lengthens an already hefty to-do list for early 2025. (The Hill)

For the national debt: That’s unclear. But a new Reuters/Ipsos survey shows that a majority of Americans expect the national debt to rise under Trump.

➤ WHAT’S NEXT FOR KAMALA HARRIS?:

The New York Times lists six options, including joining the private sector, running for lower office or waiting it out to run in 2028.

➤ MORE READS ON WHAT TO EXPECT:

‘What a Second Trump Term Could Mean for Your Money’: The New York Times
‘Federal workers prepare for cuts, forced relocations in Trump’s second term’: The Washington Post
‘Trump Enters Just as the Fed Is Shifting Its Focus’: The Wall Street Journal

📊 Election Results & Analysis

What have we learned from the exit polls?:

Both parties are examining exit polls to see just how President-elect Trump won so decisively, and Vice President Harris lost. The Hill’s Niall Stanage breaks down 5 takeaways:

Latino men moved toward Trump in a big way
The abortion rights wave never materialized for Harris
The young vote shifted several notches to the right
A mixed picture on the Black male vote
Jewish voters stuck with Democrats

➤ MORE ELECTION ANALYSIS:

‘How Trump Won, and How Harris Lost’: “He made one essential bet: that his grievances would become the grievances of the MAGA movement, and then the G.O.P., and then more than half the country. It paid off.” The New York Times

‘One striking pattern hidden in the election results’: “Were voters rejecting Democrats — or just the Biden-Harris administration?” Vox

‘How counties are shifting in the 2024 presidential election’: The Washington Post

What’s going on with the House?:

Control of the House has still not been determined, but it’s looking increasingly likely that Republicans will keep the lower chamber.

As of this morning: Republicans have won 216 seats and Democrats have won 204 seats; 218 is the magic number necessary to win the majority. A total of 15 races have still not been called.

Of the races left: Democrats are leading in nine of the uncalled races; Republicans are leading in the other six. The uncalled races are in California, Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Oregon and Washington. 📝 Here's a list of the uncalled races

The Hill and Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) forecast a 93 percent chance Republicans are successful in maintaining their majority.

📹 Watch DDHQ’s Scott Tranter explain why those races are still too close to call.

📊 Full election results

Democrats are licking their wounds:

“Democrats say they need a fresh start after President-elect Trump’s decisive victory over Vice President Harris, which saw him sweep the swing states, narrow Democratic margins in various blue states and win over key parts of the electorate,” The Hill’s Amie Parnes reports.

What Democrats think they got wrong: “Strategists and operatives say the Harris campaign relied too much on an old playbook that isn’t working in 2024. It relies too much on data and its ground game. Its messaging is ineffective. And it uses surrogates like Beyoncé and Bruce Springsteen as crutches that end up backfiring by making Democrats look like the party of the elite.”

🏃‍♂️ On Capitol Hill

The GOP leadership battle is brewing:

Republicans are celebrating their wins, but that celebration has quickly turned into a battle over who will replace outgoing Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.).

Which senators want the job?: Senate Republican Whip John Thune (S.D.), Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) all have their hat in the ring.

Thune wants Trump to stay out of it: Thune has been urging Trump to give Republican senators space to choose their own leader.

^ Which is leading his rivals to think: Thune is nervous that Trump wouldn’t endorse him to lead the upper chamber. Keep in mind that Cornyn and Scott have a better relationship with Trump than Thune does.

Cornyn is in good grace with the party today: He announced this morning that he raised nearly $33 million during the 2024 campaign cycle to help Republican candidates.

➤ TIDBIT:

“Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) officially rolled out his bid to run the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) on Friday, a move that would put him at the helm of the party’s midterm efforts to maintain and possibly grow its majority next cycle,” reports The Hill’s Al Weaver.

🐝 Internet Buzz

☕ Celebrate: Today is National Cappuccino Day!

😭 The fact this happened at the Spirit Airlines counter has me in tears: A raccoon fell through the ceiling tile at a Spirit Airlines counter at LaGuardia Airport. The video is wild. 📹 Watch the footage

🥜 Get at me: Reese’s launched a deconstructed peanut butter cup kit that includes 10 ounces of peanut butter and a giant milk chocolate shell. (USA Today)