Happy Friday! ✨It feels like everyone I interact with, whether they work in politics or not, really feeling the stress and anticipation of the election. Am I in a bubble or do you agree? Let me know. Here’s what’s in this edition: - A new NYT/Siena poll may be concerning for Harris, despite the tie race.
- Experts are on alert for deepfakes that could throw chaos into the election.
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The Athletic published a hilarious set of data, looking at just how many Uncrustables each NFL team eats per week. The numbers are astonishing.
I’m Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what’s coming up. Send tips, commentary, feedback and cookie recipes to cmartel@thehill.com. Did someone forward this newsletter to you? Sign up here. |
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Why Harris should be concerned about a tied poll: |
The New York Times and Siena College released its final national poll before Election Day, showing Vice President Harris deadlocked with former President Trump.
Why that’s bad news for Harris: Their last poll, taken in early October, showed Harris with a 3-point lead over her rival. The change is still within the margin of error but may show a shift in an incredibly tight race. More from the NYT/Siena poll
The Hill’s Alex Gangitano pointed out: Democratic presidential nominees have won the popular vote in seven of the last eight races. This poll is sparking speculation of whether she could lose the popular vote. But not all polls show this: A recent University of Massachusetts Amherst poll found Harris leading Trump by 2 percentage points.
📊 List of the latest polls, aggregated from The Hill and Decision Desk HQ |
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Be alert and very skeptical of clips you see in the next 11 days: |
Experts are on alert for sophisticated, AI-generated content relating to Vice President Harris or former President Trump that could throw chaos into the election and potentially influence the result. The Hill’s Alexander Bolton has some fascinating reporting on the efforts so far and why lawmakers are concerned.
Some deepfake AI images have been circulating: -
A fake photo of Trump this week, showing him fumbling while working at a McDonald’s drive-thru.
- An AI-generated photo surfaced in August showing a younger Trump sitting next to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein on a private plane.
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The Microsoft Threat Analysis Center claims “Russian actors” are trying to portray Harris in a negative light using deepfake videos, including making “a crass reference” to the assassination attempts against Trump.
And there’s a secondary issue — even when AI is not to blame, it adds an element of doubt to anything: -
Over the summer, Trump claimed that a photo of the massive crowds at Harris’s campaign rallies were AI-generated. However, he had no evidence, and reporters confirmed the crowds.
💡Has this affected the race?: So far, it doesn’t appear that these AI-generated deepfakes have had a harmful effect on the election, but lawmakers in both parties have warned that foreign or domestic actors could drop a bombshell at the last minute. The threat also adds an element of doubt in an already tensely partisan atmosphere.
Read the full report: ‘Parties worry deepfake bombshells could sow chaos before Election Day’ |
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CNN polling guru Harry Enten thinks the winner, whomever that may be, will “more likely than not” sweep the main battleground states. Enten’s electoral model gives a 60 percent chance that the winner will receive 300+ Electoral College votes (270 is the magic number to win.)
A former Romney adviser thinks Harris will win: GOP strategist Stuart Stevens argues that Harris’s campaign is “the best presidential campaign ever run” and thinks she will “win fairly comfortably.” |
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Now, *that’s* main character energy: |
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➤ TIDBITS FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
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Tim Walz stopped to see Cameron Indoor Stadium at Duke: He called it “pretty darn cool,” which is just how I would have guessed Walz describe it. 📹 Watch the clip
A Reuters reporter noticed a number of people leaving Harris’s rally: Here are 📸 some photos
Bruce Springsteen performed at a Harris rally: 📹 Watch Springsteen perform "Land of Hope and Dreams" at Harris’s Georgia rally with former President Obama.
Gwen Walz got a late-night cheesesteak: When in Philly! 📹 Watch the clip |
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➤ MORE READS FROM THE TRAIL:
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There’s been an E. coli outbreak at McDonald’s: |
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McDonald’s pulled Quarter Pounders from roughly 20 percent of U.S. stores this week because of an E. coli outbreak. At least 49 people are sick in 10 states and one person has died, according to The Associated Press.
What happened?: “A preliminary investigation by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration suggested fresh slivered onions that are served raw on Quarter Pounder hamburgers were a likely source of the contamination. McDonald’s also serves raw, slivered onions on one of its breakfast sandwiches, but that sandwich isn’t available at the impacted stores. Other burgers, like the Big Mac, use diced, cooked onions.”
Related: ‘The Dilemma at the Center of McDonald’s E. Coli Outbreak’: “Prepared food is convenient, but it’s also susceptible to contamination.” The Atlantic Plus: ‘McDonald's E. coli crisis shows why vegetables are harder to keep clean than beef’: Reuters |
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🥖 Celebrate: Today is National Breadstick Day! Olive Garden, here I come!
🥪🏈 I giggled so much reading this: The Athletic published a report titled, “Wait, NFL players eat how many Uncrustables?” Apparently, the Denver Broncos consume 700 handheld peanut butter and jelly sandwiches *PER WEEK.* The Seattle Seahawks are in second, eating 320 Uncrustables per week. That’s actually impressive.
🏃♂️ Hey, Joe Biden’s running!: President Biden jogged over to the press corps to make a comment. 📹 Watch the clip |
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The House and Senate are out. President Biden is in Arizona, and Vice President Harris is in Texas. (all times Eastern) |
- 1:30 p.m.: Biden speaks at the Gila River Indian Community in Arizona. 💻 Livestream
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1:30 p.m.: Former President Trump campaigns in Austin, Texas. 💻 Livestream
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2:30 p.m.: Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) campaigns in Raeford, N.C. 💻 Livestream
- 3:15 p.m.: Biden leaves Phoenix and heads to Wilmington, Del.
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6 p.m.: Vance campaigns in Monroe, N.C. 💻 Livestream
- 6:25 p.m.: Harris records an interview with Brené Brown.
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6:30 p.m.: Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) campaigns in Scranton, Pa. 💻 Livestream
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7:30 p.m.: Former President Trump campaigns in Traverse City, Mich. 💻 Livestream
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9:30 p.m.: Harris campaigns in Houston. 💻 Livestream
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I know everyone is feeling the stress of the next 11 days, so let’s leave things on a light note. Watch these dogs’ reactions when they’re told they’re good boys and good girls. |
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