Forecasting Inflation

Ohio officer "eaten" by inflatable runaway pumpkin

In Bay Village, Ohio, two officers responded to an unusual call about an inflatable pumpkin that had blown off a nearby lawn and was blocking traffic. One of the officers was then swallowed up by ...

WATCH: Cop 'attacked' by giant inflatable runaway pumpkin

A police officer in Ohio was “attacked” by a giant inflatable runaway pumpkin in the middle of the street while he was trying to clear it away from traffic, police said.

Inflation Cooled Further in September, PCE Index Shows

Overall inflation slowed in September from a year earlier, though some signs of stubbornness lingered under the surface.

Business - The New York Times - October 31

The start of a new round of gilt market carnage?

Parsing 101 words from the OBR

Business - Financial Times - October 31

Why Cooling Inflation Hasn’t Eased Sticker Shock

The term refers to what we have internalized as the fair price for a product or service. It’s often out of sync with what things now actually cost.

Business - The New York Times - November 1

Economists warn Trump’s policies will trigger inflation

US president-elect won on claims he could rid of high prices yet many analysts think he will do the opposite

World - Financial Times - 2 days ago

More growth, inflation and uncertainty: the BoE’s Budget verdict

Spending boost has reinforced the monetary policy committee’s caution about scope for further interest rate cuts

World - Financial Times - Yesterday

China growth forecast upgraded at Goldman Sachs amid stimulus efforts

World - Yahoo News - October 14

Citi and BofA join other big US banks in beating gloomy forecasts

Stronger than expected earnings add to hopes of a ‘soft landing’ for economy

Business - Financial Times - October 15

TotalEnergies forecasts 66% drop in its third-quarter oil-refining margins

The French oil company’s warnings comes on the back of a slump in the global market for products including jet fuel, diesel and gasoline that saw BP and Shell post similar warnings last week.

Business - MarketWatch - October 15

ASML Expects Slower Semiconductor Recovery, Weighing on Chip Stocks

The company posted orders below analysts’ expectations as chip makers held back spending on key production equipment.

Business - The Wall Street Journal - October 15

U.S. unemployment rate to stay low in 2025, top forecaster says

U.S. economic growth should moderate in 2025 but remain relatively strong, and the unemployment rate will look a little better, Harvard economist Karen Dynan said Tuesday.

Business - MarketWatch - October 15

Meet the Election Denier Forecasting a Trump Win in the 2024 Election

Seth Keshel has become a darling among election deniers by factoring widespread voter fraud — the existence of which has been widely debunked — into his election predictions.

Tech - The New York Times - October 15

Flying Into Storms Improves Forecasts, but It Is Rare in Asia’s Typhoon Alley

While observational flights have improved forecasts for many storms in the Americas, such flights have been far fewer for storms that have hit Asia.

World - The New York Times - October 16

TSMC beats forecasts with 54% surge in profits on soaring AI demand

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co said its sales were boosted by strong demand from smartphone makers and artificial intelligence firms

Business - MarketWatch - October 17

Victoria at risk of tornadoes as thunderstorms and giant hail lash Australia’s south-east

Bureau of Meteorology warns parts of Victoria to brace for ‘dangerous’ storm and intense rainfall that could lead to ‘life-threatening flash flooding’. Follow our Australia news live blog for ...

World - The Guardian - October 18

Hizbollah warns of escalation in Israel conflict after Yahya Sinwar killing

Threat from Lebanese militant group follows death of Hamas leader in firefight in Gaza

Business - Financial Times - October 18

British retail sales beat forecasts to rise for third straight month

Tech purchases fuel unexpected growth of 0.3%

Business - Financial Times - October 18

Trump has gained in 538's forecast, but the election is still a toss-up

538's 2024 presidential election forecast shows a very close, toss-up race, with Trump taking a small lead.

Tariff surge would damage global growth, IMF warns

In a forecast two weeks before US election the fund says greater protectionism would drag down world economy

Business - Financial Times - October 22

Heineken Sales Miss Forecasts as Consumers Shy Away From Beer

The Dutch brewer posted sales below analysts’ expectations in the third quarter as the group grappled with challenging consumer and industry trends in some markets, particularly the Americas and ...

Business - The Wall Street Journal - October 23

Thales Orders Beat Forecasts Amid Defense-Spending Surge

Thales posted orders above analysts’ expectations for the first nine months of the year as its defense and security business continued to benefit from robust military spending amid high ...

Business - The Wall Street Journal - October 23

U.S. Remains Engine of Global Growth in New IMF Forecasts

The International Monetary Fund issued its latest World Economic Outlook report, saying American economic resilience should buoy worldwide growth.

Business - Inc. - October 23

Tesla shares leap 22% after Musk predicts sales rebound

EV maker adds more than $150bn in market value after billionaire says sales may increase as much as 30% next year

Business - Financial Times - October 24

Equinor's Key Profit Measure Lags Forecasts on Lower Oil Prices and Volumes

The Norwegian energy major reported a sharper-than-expected decline in underlying profit for the third quarter as a drop in oil prices and sales volumes offset resilient gas production.

Business - The Wall Street Journal - October 24

UPS beat on revenue for the first time in 2 years, even as online sales slowed

UPS’s stock jumps toward a three-month high after earnings beat expectations, with revenue topping forecasts for the first time in nine quarters.

Business - MarketWatch - October 24

Germany’s five-year tax haul to fall nearly €60bn short of forecast

Gloomier economic predictions will increase budgetary strains and government coalition tensions