Election forecaster moves Nebraska Senate race slightly toward independent challenger
An election forecaster moved Nebraska’s contentious Senate race slightly toward Sen. Deb Fischer’s (R) challenger, Independent candidate Dan Osborn.
Sabato's Crystal Ball shifted the Senate contest from “likely Republican” to “leans Republican” on Thursday, referencing the internal polling that shows Osborn being “competitive” with the two-term incumbent.
“Fischer has led by single-digit margins in her own publicly-released internal polling, while Osborn has produced a flood of internal polls showing him leading, most recently a 48%-46% lead in a Change Research poll (interestingly, his leads have been bigger in some of his other released polls),” Sabato's Crystal Ball managing editor Kyle Kondik and associate editor J. Miles Coleman wrote in an update released Thursday.
Kondik and Coleman mentioned the recent involvement of the Senate Leadership Fund (SLF), a super PAC with links to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), in the race.
“In recent weeks, SLF has upped its involvement in Senate races that we viewed as more fundamentally marginal—such as Michigan and Wisconsin—so their buy in Nebraska suggested to us that the race there also may be more competitive than Likely Republican,” they wrote.
The shift by the election handicapper comes just a few days after Cook Political Report changed the rating of the Senate contest from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.”
Coleman and Kondik said that if Fischer prevails in November, it could be because “history suggests there won’t be a split Senate verdict in Nebraska.”
“Recall that the aforementioned [Sen. Pete] Ricketts [R] is also up for election this year,” the editors said in the update. “According to an analysis from our former colleague Geoffrey Skelley, 1966 was the most recent cycle that saw a split 'double barrel' Senate outcome.”
Fischer's quest to get reelected in deep-red Nebraska has gotten more competitive, with some in the party expressing frustration that allies have to direct additional resources that could have been utilized in other contests to give the party a better shot at grabbing the upper chamber’s majority heading into the next Congress.
“It’s like some of these safe folks feel a little bit immortal. … It’s what happens in these ruby-red states,” one Senate Republican said this week. “You should always take it seriously in Nebraska.”
“It was muscle memory. 'I haven’t had to worry in the past, why should I have to worry about this now?'” the upper chamber member said, talking about the mentality regarding the matter. “They should have anticipated it.”
Date: |
-
Politics - Politico
The POLITICO race to watch: Nebraska Senate
Yesterday -
Top stories - The New York Times
Nebraska Senate Race Tightens as Osborn Gains
Yesterday -
Politics - The Hill
Top Republican super PAC jumps into Nebraska Senate race
3 days ago -
Top stories - CBS News
11 Senate races to watch for the 2024 election
3 days ago -
Politics - Politico
Why Some Republicans Are Praising An Agency They Hate
16 hours ago - Republican Party -
Politics - Politico
The POLITICO race to watch: Nebraska’s 2nd
2 days ago -
Politics - The Hill
Fischer's Senate fight in Nebraska leaves Republicans frustrated
14 hours ago - Republican Party -
Politics - The Hill
Where the Senate races stand
Yesterday -
Politics - The Hill
Sanders tussles with Senate challenger over Trump
3 hours ago - Donald Trump
More from The Hill
-
Politics - The Hill
North Koreans training in Russia are now in combat zone: Ukraine Defense Intelligence
32 minutes ago - Ukraine -
Politics - The Hill
Live updates: JD Vance takes part in NewsNation town hall
46 minutes ago -
Politics - The Hill
Vance addresses unfounded claims of migrants eating pets during NewsNation town hall
1 hour ago -
Politics - The Hill
CDC updates COVID-19 vaccine recommendations for older adults
1 hour ago - Covid -
Politics - The Hill
EPA issues 'zero-tolerance' rule for lead in homes
1 hour ago
Latest in Politics
-
Politics - NBC News
Arizona county heightens security ahead of Election Day
27 minutes ago -
Politics - NBC News
Colorado election officials say they identified at least a dozen fraudulent ballots
31 minutes ago -
Politics - The Hill
North Koreans training in Russia are now in combat zone: Ukraine Defense Intelligence
32 minutes ago - Ukraine -
Politics - The Hill
Live updates: JD Vance takes part in NewsNation town hall
46 minutes ago -
Politics - NBC News
Trump campaigns in critical Arizona less than two weeks before Election Day
1 hour ago - Donald Trump