The stock market is always terrible at valuing technology revolutions

Investors’ surprise over Chinese AI chatbot DeepSeek echoes the belief in first-mover advantage of the dotcom bubble

Sam Altman’s assessment of the new Chinese AI chatbot spoke volumes – “impressive, particularly around what they’re able to deliver for the price”. The OpenAI chief executive remembered to add that his firm would be launching “better models” soon, but his praise for DeepSeek’s R1 version would seem to clear up one question for AI luddites: Is the Chinese product as good as the pundits are saying? Answer: if Altman is saying so, yes, it probably is.

Other mysteries remain, of course. Has DeepSeek really developed the thing on the comical shoestring budget of $6m? Or is the model running on Nvidia chips, just using fewer of them and of the older variety? If so, could it be good news for Nvidia in the long run that the AI game has new entrants? But does a chunk of spending by others on computing power for the AI arms race already represent wasted money?

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