Good news, everyone! We appear to have reached peak longevity | Emma Beddington
Forget blue zones, superfoods and hi-tech rejuvenation therapies: study after study suggests our dreams of immortality will never come true. But maybe that’s just the kick in the pants humanity needs
The news hasn’t been good for people planning to live for ever. First came Dr Saul Newman’s investigative work into supercententarians – those aged 110 or older. In a paper titled “Supercentenarian and remarkable age records exhibit patterns indicative of clerical errors and pension fraud”, Newman reported that high concentrations of supposedly extremely old people occurred, implausibly, in places with the highest rates of poverty – a predictor of the worst health – and with no birth certificates. In the US, the number of supercentenarians declined by between 69% and 82%, depending on the state, when birth certificates were introduced.
Guttingly for anyone who spends a fortune on jasmine tea and nattō by following the Okinawa diet, Newman’s research also challenged the notion of “blue zones”, pointing to high error and fraud rates in those mythic, much-admired areas with high concentrations of centenarians. In 2010, more than 230,000 Japanese centenarians turned out to be missing, imaginary, clerical errors or dead; in Greece, 72% of census-reported centenarians in 2012 were discovered to be dead (“or, depending on your perspective, committing pension fraud”). Dump the daikon! Banish Greek beans! (Not really: they are still good for you, just not “live to 120” good.)
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