European stock market fear index hits seven-month high; China’s retaliatory tariffs on US farm goods kick in – business live
Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news
Analysts at investment bank Jefferies remain optimistic about the prospects for the US economy in the second half of 2025 – while also fearing that it may slow more than expected in the first half of the year.
In an updated US Economic Outlook, Jefferies tell clients:
Broadly, these changes are modest relative to what we were looking for at the beginning of the year. We started out 2025 expecting growth to slow in the first half due to exactly the sort of tensions and uncertainty about policy that we are currently seeing. It now appears that the slowdown will be a bit more pronounced than we expected, but we remain optimistic about the second half of the year and beyond.
We expect that the labor market will continue to cool gradually in the months ahead, with downside risks due to government spending uncertainty. We continue to expect that the Fed cut rates again in June, followed by 2 more 25 bp cuts, but we’re now expecting they will be back-to-back in July and September (rather than every-other-meeting).
‘’Unease about the effect of Trump’s tariffs hangs over financial markets at the start of the week. The prospect of a recession in the US is lurking, with consumer confidence falling, companies facing increasing trade complexity and investors turning more nervous. China’s deflation problem is also weighing on sentiment, and geopolitical concerns are staying in focus, with attacks on Ukraine intensifying.
The FTSE 100 is on the back foot in early trade, unable to shake off the nervousness surrounding the concerns about slowing global growth.
Continue reading...-
China hits US farm goods with tariffs as trade war escalates
Beijing’s latest measures target $22bn of American agriculture products as well as timberFinancial Times - 3h -
China imposes retaliatory tariffs on Canadian farm and food products
China has announced retaliatory tariffs on some Canadian farm and food imports, after Canada imposed duties in October on Chinese-made electric vehicles and steel and aluminum productsABC News - 2d -
China to impose retaliatory tariffs on some Canadian products as trade war heats up
China on Saturday announced retaliatory tariffs on Canadian agricultural goods, hitting back after Ottawa slapped import duties on Chinese-made EVs.CNBC - 2d -
Trump says US economy in 'transition' as trade war escalates
New retaliatory tariffs from China targeting some US farm products came into effect on Monday.BBC News - 3h -
China hits Canada with retaliatory tariffs on agricultural products
Beijing accuses Ottawa of ‘discriminatory’ levies on electric vehiclesFinancial Times - 2d -
Top shipping broker Clarksons says war and Trump tariff fears have hit revenues
Shares in FTSE 250 company fall by nearly a fifth as geopolitical turmoil pushes down freight rates. Business live – latest updates The world’s biggest ship broker has warned that geopolitical ...The Guardian - 1h -
China bond yields jump to three-month highs as investors pare rate cut expectations
Chinese government bond yields moved further away from January's historic lows amid optimism in the faltering economy and a stock market rally.CNBC - 5h -
China Hits Canada With Tariffs in Indirect Riposte to Trump
Beijing, which set steep duties on canola, peas and pork, wants Canada and Mexico to resist U.S. pressure to raise tariffs on Chinese goods.The New York Times - 2d -
‘I hate to predict things’: Trump doesn’t rule out US recession amid trade tariffs
US president downplays recent stock market volatility that followed his ducking and weaving over tariff policy. US politics live – latest updates Donald Trump on Sunday refused to rule out the ...The Guardian - 16h
More from The Guardian
-
Mark Carney to be next Canada PM after winning Liberal leadership race
Former central banker will be only second prime minister in Canadian history without a seat in parliament. ‘Boring guy’ whose economic acumen could help Canada tackle Trump Mark Carney, the ...The Guardian - 13h -
Russian forces recapture villages in Ukrainian-held pocket inside Russia
Volodymyr Zelenskyy to meet Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Saudi Arabia while Ukrainian delegation will meet with Marco Rubio and Trump aides. Russia has taken control of several villages in the ...The Guardian - 20h -
Syrian defence ministry says military operation over and forces ‘paving way for life to return to normal’ – Middle East crisis live
Syria’s defence ministry spokesperson warns of further retribution against forces loyal to Assad. Syria ’s defence ministry has announced it has completed military operations to fight remnants of ...The Guardian - 23m -
‘I hate to predict things’: Trump doesn’t rule out US recession amid trade tariffs
US president downplays recent stock market volatility that followed his ducking and weaving over tariff policy. US politics live – latest updates Donald Trump on Sunday refused to rule out the ...The Guardian - 16h -
Israel to cut off electricity in Gaza in apparent effort to force hand of Hamas
Humanitarian officials say move could hit already meagre water supply, as ceasefire talks grow increasingly chaotic. Israel is to cut off any remaining electricity supplies to Gaza in an apparent ...The Guardian - 13h
More in World
-
Syrian defence ministry says military operation over and forces ‘paving way for life to return to normal’ – Middle East crisis live
Syria’s defence ministry spokesperson warns of further retribution against forces loyal to Assad. Syria ’s defence ministry has announced it has completed military operations to fight remnants of ...The Guardian - 23m -
Air India upgrades its service to this Asian country
Yahoo News - 49m -
President's church donation sparks Kenyan clashes
Yahoo News - 53m -
FirstFT: ‘Canada will never ever be part of America’
Also in today’s newsletter, Ford to inject more than €4bn into its German subsidiary and shadow war in the Baltic SeaFinancial Times - 55m -
Trump’s crypto payday might actually be even bigger
Finally, hard work pays offFinancial Times - 56m
