How economists identify recessions and stagflation

Preliminary data from the University of Michigan shows that consumer sentiment, or how people feel about the economy, declined for a second straight month. It all comes as January saw a decline in spending which has some economists warning that the U.S. could face a possible recession. CBS News MoneyWatch correspondent Kelly O'Grady has more on recession risk signs.

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Is the U.S. heading for a recession? Here's what economists say.

Consumers, businesses and investors are increasingly jittery about the risks of a protracted slump. So what exactly is a recession?
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Trump Says a Recession Would Be Worth It, but Economists Are Skeptical

President Trump and his advisers say his policies may cause short-term pain but will produce big gains over time. Many economists are skeptical of those arguments.
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Trump 'an agent of chaos and confusion,' economists warn — but a U.S. recession isn't in the cards yet

Economists say Trump is proving to be an "agent of chaos" with his unpredictable trade tariff policies but a downturn isn't in the cards just yet.
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Risk of ‘Trumpcession’ rising, economists say, as global markets fall

Donald Trump’s brinkmanship and stop-start approach to tariffs rattle investors. Business live – latest updates The risk that the US economy will enter recession this year is rising, according ...
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Are we heading into a recession? Here's what the data shows

With stocks sliding into correction territory in the last week, a question emerges: Is a recession next? Here's what the data and expert economists say.
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Economists thought Trump would try to prevent a recession. That’s now in doubt.

What are President Donald Trump and his team thinking with their recent talk about possible economic pain for the U.S.?
MarketWatch - Mar. 10
How concerned should Americans be about a potential recession?

President Trump's tariffs and a string of rough days on Wall Street are stoking anxiety over a possible recession in the United States. Kristin Myers, editor-in-chief for ETF.com, joined CBS News ...
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Asia-Pacific markets trade mixed despite tariff uncertainty and recession fears in the U.S.

Economists polled by Reuters expect India's inflation rate to slow to 3.98% in February from 5.68% in January.
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Tuesday Briefing: U.S. Recession Fear Rattles Markets

Plus, how a leader’s gambit failed.
The New York Times - Mar. 10
How the sporting goods industry is bracing for tariffs

Economists and industry advocates say tariffs would have a direct impact on the sports world.
ESPN - 3d
Recession fears are mounting — Powell’s stances on these 4 issues could dictate America’s economic path in months ahead

The Federal Reserve will hold its benchmark interest rate steady at its meeting this week, economists say, as it remains in a “wait-and-see” mode until the effects of President Donald Trump’s ...
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How to Spot and Let Go of Bad Clients as a Leader

Learn to identify harmful clients, understand the hidden costs they bring, and confidently part ways while safeguarding your business.
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How the gold bullion boom sent a US recession alarm blaring

Gold-adjusted GDP forecasts. Really!
Financial Times - Mar. 10
Germany can spend almost €2tn without harming growth, economists say

FT survey finds ‘large fiscal capacity’, but economists urge would-be chancellor Friedrich Merz to spend funds wisely
Financial Times - Mar. 10
Report highlights how communities hardest hit by climate change can build resilient water systems

A new report identifies ways to create resilient water and wastewater systems in communities hardest hit by climate change
ABC News - 3h
‘There Are No Guarantees,’ Treasury Secretary Says of Recession

Scott Bessent could not guarantee that the economy is recession-proof.
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Person of interest identified by U.S. investigators in search for missing Pittsburgh student

A person of interest has been identified in the weeklong search for missing University of Pittsburgh student Sudiksha Konanki, according to U.S. authorities.
NBC News - 6d
Canadian police identify remains of murdered Indigenous woman at landfill

Police said they had identified Morgan Harris, 39, and had also found more remains of another person. Canadian police have identified the remains of a murdered Indigenous woman at a landfill and ...
The Guardian - Mar. 10
Lutnick: ‘There’s going to be no recession in America’

Commerce Sec. Howard Lutnick shot down the possibility of a forthcoming recession in America, in an interview on NBC News’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday. “Absolutely not,” Lutnick said when asked ...
The Hill - Mar. 9
How an Iowa woman became a key witness in her own murder

The last words spoken by Angela Prichard, 55, an Iowa wife and mother who called 911 to report she was in danger, was the first clue investigators had to identify her killer.
CBS News - 2d
Yahoo Fantasy Plus identifies 3 boom-or-bust outfielders — should you draft them?

The Fantasy Plus Experts Consensus model has identified three of the hardest outfielders to project. Andy Behrens reveals if he’s in or out on each player.
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Jeff Bezos Says Identifying Your Hidden Strengths Is Key to Success. Here Are 15 Questions to Find Yours

Jeff Bezos, physicists, and an Academy Award winner all say identifying your hidden strengths helps you get ahead. These questions can help.
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Yahoo Fantasy Plus identifies 5 boom-or-bust infielders — should you draft them?

The Fantasy Plus Experts Consensus model has identified five of the hardest infielders to project. Scott Pianowski reveals if he’s in or out on each player.
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Yahoo Fantasy Plus identifies 3 boom-or-bust starting pitchers — should you draft them?

The Fantasy Plus Experts Consensus model has identified three of the hardest starting pitchers to project. Dalton Del Don reveals if he’s in or out on each player.
Yahoo Sports - 4d
Yahoo Fantasy Plus identifies 3 of 2025's safest starting pitchers — should you draft them at ADP?

The Fantasy Plus Experts Consensus model has identified three of the safest starting pitchers to project. Scott Pianowski reveals if he’s in or out on each player at ADP.
Yahoo Sports - 1d
Why Trump's rapidly changing economic policies are raising stagflation alarms

If there was one thing President Donald Trump was supposed to represent to many voters, it was the prospect of an upturn in their economic fortunes.
NBC News - 6d
Trump’s reciprocal tariffs could bring stagflation — and deflate his support

Trump campaigned on bringing prices down. If tariffs spike inflation and slow U.S. growth, his popularity could suffer.
MarketWatch - 4h
An Emirati diplomat identified as having a letter from Trump meets with Iran's foreign minister

An Emirati diplomat earlier identified by Tehran as carrying a letter from U.S. President Donald Trump seeking to jump-start talks over Iran’s rapidly advancing nuclear program has met with Iran’s ...
ABC News - 5d
Stocks plunge, market closes down on recession fears amid escalating tariffs

The major stock indexes plunged on Monday amid fears of a possible recession.
ABC News - Mar. 10
Economists forecast slowing US growth and increased inflation

Also in today’s newsletter, US’s campaign against the Houthis and the man moving Meta to the right
Financial Times - 2h
Recession fears escalate across U.S.

U.S. stocks plunged Monday as President Trump declined to rule out the possibility that the nation is tipping into a recession. CBS News MoneyWatch correspondent Kelly O'Grady examines the market's ...
CBS News - Mar. 10
Remains in Manitoba Landfill Are Identified as Serial Killer’s Victim

The decision to search a landfill near Winnipeg had become a political issue in the western Canadian province, largely because the victims were all Indigenous women.
The New York Times - Mar. 8
Larry Summers: Odds of a recession 'close to 50/50'

Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said Monday that the odds of a recession are “close to 50/50.” “I told [Kasie Hunt] @CNN today, I think there is a real possibility of a recession,” Summers ...
The Hill - Mar. 11
Behind Trump's latest comments on a U.S. recession

President Trump seems confident that his tariffs will reap great rewards for the U.S., but he is not ruling out the possibility of a recession. CBS News' Weijia Jiang reports.
CBS News - Mar. 10
Treasury Sec. Bessent: ‘There are no guarantees’ that there won’t be a recession

In an exclusive interview with Meet the Press, Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent reacts to fears of a recession happening as the Trump administration enacts sweeping tariffs on U.S. trading partners.
NBC News - 2d
Bessent says 'there are no guarantees' when it comes to recession

Treasury Department Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday that “there are no guarantees” when it comes to a recession. “Mr. Secretary, can you guarantee the American people here and now that there ...
The Hill - 1d
U.S. stocks plunge as Americans worry about a recession | Special Report

Stocks in the U.S. cratered as investors fret about a potential recession and the changing tariffs that have evolved into a trade war with several nations. President Trump declined to refute the ...
CBS News - Mar. 10
Fetterman: Shutdown would ‘plunge the country into chaos, risk a recession’

Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) said he believes a government shutdown would plunge the United States “into chaos” and risk sending the country into a recession. “Shut the government down, plunge the ...
The Hill - 4d
BofA says this tech stock can work even in a recession. We just bought more shares

Salesforce should be able to continue to grow despite the impact of tariffs and a possible recession.
CNBC - 5d

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