Yahoo Sports AM: How to pick a March Madness winner

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🚨 Headlines

🏀 Alabama State, UNC advance: March Madness got off to a thrilling start with Alabama State beating Saint Francis (PA) on a Hail Mary buzzer-beater in the "First Four" opener. The nightcap was a snoozer: North Carolina 95, San Diego State 68.

🏀 All-Americans: Auburn's Johni Broome and Duke's Cooper Flagg were both unanimous first-team AP All-Americans. Joining them on the first team: Alabama's Mark Sears, Purdue's Braden Smith and Florida's Walter Clayton Jr.

⛳️ Last two standing: Atlanta crushed The Bay to reach TGL's inaugural championship. They'll play New York next week in a best-of-three match with $13.5 million on the line ($9 million to the winners, $4.5 million to the losers).

🏒 Trump, Putin talk hockey: Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to organize hockey games between NHL and KHL players, and President Donald Trump reportedly supported his idea during a phone call on Tuesday. Russia has not competed internationally since being sanctioned in 2022.

🏀 One-and-done: Last March, head coach Darian DeVries left Drake for West Virginia. 12 months later, he's leaving Morgantown to become the head coach at Indiana.

🏀 How to pick a March Madness winner

66 Division I men's basketball teams still have a shot to cut down the nets next month, but history — and data — tells us that some have a much better chance than others.

The winning formula: All but one champion since 2001 has entered March Madness in both the top 21 in adjusted offensive efficiency and the top 44 in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. The lone exception? UConn in 2014 (19th in defense, 57th in offense).

12 teams fit the bill this year:

No. 1 Florida
No. 1 Auburn
No. 1 Duke
No. 1 Houston
No. 2 Alabama
No. 2 Tennessee
No. 3 Texas Tech
No. 3 Wisconsin
No. 3 Iowa State
No. 4 Arizona
No. 6 Illinois
No. 8 Gonzaga

Any surprises? Three of the top 12 overall seeds didn't quite make the cut. No. 2 Michigan State and No. 2 St. John's are lacking offensively; No. 3 Kentucky is lacking defensively.

But wait, there's more: While the trend above is the most data-driven and predictive, it's hardly the only one to consider while filling out your bracket.

Beasts of the East: No team in the western half of the country has won the title since Arizona in 1997. Baylor (Waco, Texas) is the westernmost champion since then, and just two of this year's top 16 overall seeds are west of them: No. 3 Texas Tech and No. 4 Arizona.
The preseason ranking corollary: In the 64-team era (since 1985), no 1-seed or 2-seed who was unranked in the preseason AP poll has ever made the Final Four. That's bad news for 2-seeds Michigan State and St. John's, who are the 38th and 39th teams to fit that description.
The Week 6 rule: Every champion since 2004 was ranked in the top 12 of the Week 6 AP poll. This year's contenders: No. 1 Auburn, No. 1 Duke, No. 1 Florida, No. 2 Tennessee, No. 2 Alabama, No. 3 Iowa State, No. 3 Kentucky, No. 4 Purdue, No. 5 Oregon, No. 7 Marquette, No. 7 Kansas and No. 8 Gonzaga.

And finally… If you're thinking of picking a Cinderella to win it all, consider this: In the 39 tournaments since the field expanded to 64, just five teams lower than a 3-seed have cut down the nets: No. 8 Villanova (1985), No. 6 Kansas (1988), No. 4 Arizona (1997), No. 7 UConn (2014) and No. 4 UConn (2023).

Go deeper:Ranking every team in the tournament(Jeff Eisenberg, Yahoo Sports)

🏀 At long last, W&M is going dancing

William & Mary was established by royal charter in 1693 by King William II and Queen Mary II, making it the second oldest college in America after Harvard (1636). Three centuries later, W&M is finally going dancing.

The drought is over: With a 66-63 win over Campbell in Sunday's CAA title game, William & Mary clinched the first NCAA tournament berth for the women's program, which has been around for 105 seasons, and the first-ever berth for the school as a whole.

It wasn't looking good for the Tribe last week, when they ended their regular season with an 11-18 record. But March loves an underdog, and four days (and four wins) later they became the first No. 9 seed to ever win the CAA tournament.
They trailed 14-0 in the title game before battling back to accomplish what many at the Williamsburg, Virginia, school thought might never happen. "We talked a lot about belief," said coach Erin Dickerson Davis. "You have to believe. Nobody else can believe for you."

What's next: W&M will make its tournament debut tomorrow night in a "First Four" contest against fellow 16-seed High Point. The winner gets the privilege of playing top-seeded Texas.

For the men, the wait continues… The William & Mary men's team, which has been around even longer than the women (120 seasons), still hasn't experienced March Madness. In fact, they're one of just three men's programs that has never made the NCAA tournament despite being eligible since its inception in 1939. The other two? Army and The Citadel.

My take: They should rename the school Mary & William in honor of the women's team making the NCAA tournament first. It's only right.

⚾️ Dodgers open title defense with a win

The 2025 MLB season began just like the 2024 one ended, with the Dodgers riding key hits and dominant pitching to victory.

Dodgers 4, Cubs 1:Los Angeles beat Chicago in Tokyo despite former MVPs Mookie Betts (illness) and Freddie Freeman (ribs) missing the game and Cubs starter Shōta Imanaga hurling four no-hit innings to open the contest.

The Dodgers' star at the plate was Japan's own Shohei Ohtani, who was the only player on either team to notch multiple hits or score multiple runs.
Ohtani's countryman Yoshinobu Yamamoto earned the win after allowing three hits and one run in five innings of work. The bullpen took care of the rest, closing out the game with four scoreless, hitless frames.

What's next: Game 2 of the Tokyo Series is currently underway on FS1. After its conclusion, both teams will return home to finish their spring training schedules ahead of the real Opening Day next Thursday.

Instant reactions:Six takeaways from the season-opener(Jake Mintz and Jordan Schusterman, Yahoo Sports)

📸 Strange sport: Wife carrying

The 17th annual UK Wife Carrying Racewas held on Sunday in Dorking, Surrey, a small town about 30 miles south of London.

A "wife" being weighed in. (Carl Court/Getty Images)

Wife carrying was first introduced as a sport in Finland in 1992. It's exactly what it sounds like, though the "wife" can be anyone (wife, husband, friend, you name it) as long as they weigh at least 110 pounds.

There are many ways to carry another human, but the method at this particular race was Estonian-style, with the "wife" upside down with their legs hanging over the neck and shoulders. Other wife-carrying methods include classic piggyback and the fireman's carry (over the shoulder).

Stuart Johnson and Hattie Cronin, holding their prize, won for the second year in a row. (Carl Court/Getty Images)

The 380-meter course in Dorking takes racers up and down a steep, grassy hill and features two obstacles: straw bales to hurdle over and a "Splash Zone" where spectators throw water at contestants. This year's winners took home a $200 barrel of local ale and $325 toward expenses to represent Great Britain at the Wife-Carrying World Championship in Finland.

📺 Watchlist: First Four

(Greg Fiume/NCAA Photos via Getty Images)

The men's First Four concludes tonight while the women's First Four begins.

Men: The winner of No. 16 Mount St. Mary's* vs. No. 16 American (6:40pm ET, truTV) faces No. 1 Duke; the winner of No. 11 Xavier vs. No. 11 Texas (9:10pm, truTV) faces No. 6 Illinois.

Women: The winner of No. 11 Princeton vs. No. 11 Iowa State (7pm, ESPNU) faces No. 6 Michigan; the winner of No. 16 Southern vs. No. 16 UCSD (9pm, ESPNU) faces No. 1 UCLA.

More to watch:

⚾️ MLB: Dodgers vs. Cubs (6:10am, FS1) … Tokyo Series, Game 2.
🏀 NBA: Pistons at Heat (7:30pm, ESPN); Nuggets at Lakers (10pm, ESPN)
🏒 NHL: Avalanche at Maple Leafs (7pm, TNT); Kraken at Wild (9:30pm, TNT)
⚽️ Women's Champions League: Wolfsburg vs. Barcelona (1:45pm, YouTube); Man City vs. Chelsea (4pm, YouTube) … Quarterfinals, first leg.

*Fun fact: Mount St. Mary's point guard, Xavier Lipscomb, has the name of two other teams in the tournament (No. 11 Xavier, No. 14 Lipscomb). And as long as we're playing that game, St. Mary's (No. 7) is also in the field.

🏀 College hoops trivia

Darian DeVries is set to become Indiana's sixth* head coach since Bob Knight was fired in 2000.

Question: Can you name the five that preceded him?

Hint: Two are active D-I head coaches.

*We're not counting Dan Dakich, who coached seven games in 2008 as interim head coach.

Answer at the bottom.

🏀 My picks: Duke (men) and UConn (women)

Think you have a better bracket than me? (Hint: You probably do!). Enter into the official Yahoo Sports men's pool and women's pool to compete head-to-head with me and my colleagues.

My Final Four picks…

Men: I've got No. 1 Auburn vs. No. 2 St. John's and No. 1 Duke vs. No. 1 Houston in the Final Four, with the Tigers and Blue Devils meeting in the national championship game in San Antonio. Final score: Duke 84, Auburn 78 (the same score as their game back in December).

Women: I've got No. 1 UCLA vs. No. 2 UConn and No. 1 South Carolina vs. No. 3 Notre Dame in the Final Four, with the Huskies and Gamecocks meeting in the national championship game in Tampa. Final score: UConn 72, South Carolina 69.

Trivia answer: Mike Davis (2000-06), Kelvin Sampson (2006-08), Tom Crean (2008-17), Archie Miller (2017-21), Mike Woodson (2021-2025)

We hope you enjoyed this edition of Yahoo Sports AM, our daily newsletter that keeps you up to date on all things sports. Sign up here to get it delivered to your inbox every weekday morning.

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Yahoo Sports AM: How to pick a March Madness winner

🚨 Headlines

🏀 How to pick a March Madness winner

🏀 At long last, W&M is going dancing

⚾️ Dodgers open title defense with a win

📸 Strange sport: Wife carrying

📺 Watchlist: First Four

🏀 College hoops trivia

🏀 My picks: Duke (men) and UConn (women)

Topics

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