Women’s Final Four breakdown and predictions: UCLA or UConn? South Carolina or Texas?

Women’s Final Four breakdown and predictions: UCLA or UConn? South Carolina or Texas?The field is set for Friday’s Final Four showdowns. Our experts break down the games and make predictions.

Follow along to see who has the edge when games tip off in Tampa.

No. 1 South Carolina vs. No. 1 Texas

7 p.m. Friday, ESPN

The two programs at the top of the SEC will meet in Tampa with a spot in the national championship on the line. This will be a rematch of the SEC tournament championship held only three weeks ago, a game South Carolina won 64-45. It will also be the fourth time the schools play this season. The Gamecocks lead the overall series 2-1.

These programs have plenty in common. Both have physical and aggressive defenses. On offense, both are efficient and among the nation’s best. Texas relies on pounding teams around the basket, scoring more than 60 percent of its points in the paint, but South Carolina sprinkles slightly more 3-pointers into its offensive diet.

It’s hard to imagine any significant surprises springing up before Friday. The Longhorns will surely know that the Gamecocks will pack the paint and dare their opponent to shoot 3s. Texas is last in the country in 3-point rate and went only 1 of 8 in their early March meeting. South Carolina will anticipate Texas’ ball pressure. The second quarter was the difference in their SEC tournament meeting, as South Carolina outscored Texas in that period 21-6. The Longhorns had six of their seven first-half turnovers in the second quarter, and shot only 3 o 12 from the field. They had defensive lapses, too, as Chloe Kitts and Sania Feagin combined to score nine points as South Carolina shot 53.3 percent in the frame. In the other three quarters, the Gamecocks had only a plus-four point differential. Both teams will look to avoid lulls, and both saw their offenses stall out at times in the Elite Eight.

Who controls the paint will go a long way in determining who advances. In the Longhorns’ win over the Gamecocks back in early February, Texas scored 40 paint-points and held South Carolina to just 26 — down from their 42.1 average. As part of their success, the Longhorns also hauled in 15 offensive rebounds and converted those chances for 19 second-chance points. Texas wing Madison Booker enters as the most dangerous single player in the matchup, having won SEC Player of the Year, been named a first-team All-American and taken home Birmingham 3 Most Outstanding Player honors on Monday night. But the Gamecocks — with their length, and various defensive options led by Bree Hall — have largely stifled Booker. She is averaging only 12.3 points on 25.9 percent against South Carolina across their three meetings and has more turnovers (eight) than assists (four). Whether Booker can shine will be another key.

What South Carolina lacks in a singular star, it has in a widely talented roster. Six players average between eight and 13 points per game, and no one averages more than 11 shot attempts. The depth allows coach Dawn Staley to pivot quickly when making adjustments, and it can make preparation difficult on opponents — there’s no single player to load up on. Familiarity will help Texas in the ...

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