Why Italy result in Germany will decide 2026 World Cup group

Italy’s Nations League progress is not the only thing in the balance against Germany, as failure would also decide their 2026 World Cup qualifying group.

The second leg kicks off at the Signal Iduna Park in Dortmund this evening at 19.45 GMT.

The Azzurri lost the first leg 2-1 at San Siro, when a pair of headers overturned the Sandro Tonali opener.

If Italy win by one clear goal, then the tie will go to extra time and perhaps even penalties.

The winner goes through to the Nations League Final Four, but that is not the only thing at stake here.

Italy path to 2026 World Cup depends on Germany result

epa11976939 Germany’s forward Jonathan Burkardt (R) kicks the ball against Riccardo Calafiori during the UEFA Nations League quarterfinals first leg soccer match between Italy and Germany at the Giuseppe Meazza Stadium in Milan, Italy, 20 March 2025. EPA-EFE/Daniel Dal Zennaro

Because the victors must participate in that extra tournament this summer, then they will also be placed into a smaller World Cup qualifying group.

If Italy do go through tonight, then they will be in Group A along with Northern Ireland, Luxembourg and Slovakia.

However, in case of elimination, the Nazionale will be in Group I with Estonia, Israel, Moldova and Erling Haaland’s Norway.

Only the top team in each group is guaranteed access to the 2026 World Cup, while the 12 best runners-up and four from the Nations League will enter play-offs in March 2026.

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