The race for Europe gifts the Premier League run-in a quiet chaos

Forest, Villa, and Man City are all in the race for spots in European competition next season. Composite: Guardian design

Southampton’s relegation from the Premier League was confirmed on Sunday, with a record seven games remaining. Wolves beat Ipswich, so there is now a 12-point gap between the bottom three and the rest: Ipswich and Leicester look doomed.

The gap at the top, meanwhile, remains a seemingly unassailable 11 points. Leaders Liverpool lost at Fulham but, with Arsenal only drawing at Everton, it didn’t really matter.

In terms of the league, all that really remains to be decided is who finishes in the top five and so qualifies for the Champions League.

That may not be the stuff of legend, but it’s not nothing. The race for a spot in European competition has provided plenty of drama in the past, notably in 2004 when Chelsea beat Liverpool on the final day to qualify for the Champions League; the following month they were bought by Roman Abramovich. But for Jesper Grønkjær’s winner that day, the course of their history might have been very different.

Related: Premier League: 10 talking points from the weekend’s action

While that was all hugely dramatic; the current race may not be. Perhaps it’s all building to a head, but the sides in fourth and fifth both had tricky away games on Sunday: Manchester City at Manchester United and Chelsea at Brentford. Both drew them 0-0. There are tense, thrilling 0-0s, fraught with anxiety and drama; these were not. The Manchester derby, in particular, was as uneventful as that fixture can ever have been, neither side willing to risk anything, and both sides happy to walk away with a point. With almost two months of the season still to play, there is an awful sense of the campaign already being as good as over.

This had many of the makings of a great season; it’s just that somehow the timing has been off. All the traditional big sides are flawed. Manchester United and Tottenham are so bad that it’s not entirely clear they still belong in the “big side” category. A lot of the middle tier – Brighton, Fulham, Crystal Palace, Bournemouth – have had at least spells when they have played superbly. Nottingham Forest have hit a level almost nobody thought possible. The problem is that this is looking like being the worst bottom three in history (in part as a result of the elevation of the middle tier).

At the same time, Liverpool, often apparently playing within themselves, have been by far the best and most consistent side, denying the league a title race. Though, even they have not been at their best for a couple of months.

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