The numbers that suggest Manchester United Women have been overperforming
For large parts of the first half, United dominated possession, were in control of the game and had not allowed Liverpool a touch in the box, let alone a shot at goal. But in the final few minutes before half-time, they were undone by two counter-attacks in quick succession and found themselves trailing 2-0.
United were on a seven-match winning streak before that loss. They had won all five of their 2025 league games — their best start to a calendar year in the top flight — and were looking to consolidate their second-place position in the Women’s Super League, having already beaten their points tally of 35 last season (they are on 36). Liverpool, however, halted that run and United are now third, behind second-place Arsenal on goal difference, while Chelsea are top of the table with 44 points.
Was the Liverpool loss just a blip in an otherwise impressive season? Or had there been warning signs?
Last season, United rarely played the ball long and built through the field more slowly and from a deeper position. This campaign, Skinner wanted to have an even more aggressive press, win turnovers high up the pitch and threaten on transitions with a more direct style of play. Those characteristics were most evident when United went at Manchester City and were clinical, beating City 4-2 in January.
Their passes per defensive action (PPDA), a measure of pressing intensity, has improved. The graph below shows an upward trajectory this season, which illustrates a return to the high-octane closing down towards the end of the impressive 2022-23 season when they finished second, compared to a dip last year when they fell to fifth.
However, there have been instances, such as the 0-0 draw with Aston Villa in November, when United looked turgid and struggled to create. Performances have also slumped in second halves, their 2-0 win against Leicester City in March being a case in point.
In their 1-0 defeat against Chelsea, decided by a penalty converted by Guro Reiten, they registered just three shots, perhaps being understandably cautious given their humiliating 6-0 defeat against the WSL champions in last season’s final game.
United have consistently managed to find ways to win. When their attacking threat was lacking, their defence, for the most part, stood resolute. United have conceded the fewest number of goals (nine) in the league this season.
But they have not dominated possession or the attacking third (see field tilt in the table below) as they wanted to do, and some of their underlying numbers this season suggest their league position represents an overperformance.
Simply looking at the league table does not tell the full story. United had been overperforming at both ends of the pitch.
They have scored 30 goals, about four more than would have been expected from the chances they have created, based on their expected goals (xG) of 25.5. Defensively, they have conceded nine goals, despite an xG against of 16.3. And they are still conceding approximately the same number of shots (11 per game last year, 10 this year) and quality of chances as last season.
United should be conceding more goals based on the quality of chances they are allowing their opponents. Their overperformance in this area is shown by the blue section for the 2024-25 season in the graph below. It is by far the biggest defensive gap compared to what is expected of any other side in the WSL, but the downward trajectory suggests their defensive overperformance has caught up with them in recent weeks.
Defensive overperformance can happen for several reasons, including good goalkeeping and poor finishing.
Heading into the Liverpool game, Phallon Tullis-Joyce — the goalkeeper who has stepped up following the departure of Mary Earps — had barely put a foot wrong. The USWNT international, whose contract expires in the summer of 2026, is having an extremely impressive season.
Her shot-stopping has been very strong, preventing just over six goals more than expected, based on the quality of the shots faced. But given United’s defensive fragility, that was not likely to last forever and three goals conceded on Friday proved that.
It is very rare to sustain these numbers over an extended period when conceding such chances. The 3-1 defeat against Liverpool, a game in which they conceded half as many goals as they had done in the league all season, had been coming. The cracks, which had been painted over, were there for all to see.
At the start of the season and at the restart after the winter break, Skinner said to judge his team on controlling transitions. He had previously praised summer signing Dominique Janssen and Hinata Miyazawa for their “unselfish work” covering spaces that prevented United from being overrun in midfield. But Liverpool carved United open when they hit quickly on the counter and United could not cope with Liverpool’s pace on the wing, especially Olivia Smith, who easily beat Grace Clinton down the byline for the opener.
“We were passive in defensive phases,” Skinner told reporters after the game. “Our final third play was off, the crosses weren’t where they needed to be, the timing of our runs we missed.
“It wouldn’t have been a bad performance had we taken a point tonight.”
Points can always mask average performances and that has generally been the story of United’s season. They have been hard to beat without setting the world alight.
The away loss to Liverpool was by no means a disaster — they are still in a very commanding position, breathing down Arsenal’s neck and four points clear of City in fourth. That is no mean feat, especially since Arsenal’s most recent accounts show their player wage bill to be nearly three times (£9million, $11.7m) that of United’s 2022-23 wage bill (£3.4m), while City is double United’s (£7m). Chelsea do not disclose their wage bill but their total expenses in 2022-23 (£13.1m) were nearly double United’s from the same year (£7.1m).
But, regardless, the pressure is cranking up.
Given United’s ominous run-in of Chelsea, Manchester City and Arsenal, they know they have to take maximum points from their next three WSL games — away against Aston Villa on Sunday, home against Everton next Sunday, then away against West Ham next month — before facing their biggest rivals to give them the best chance to secure Champions League qualification.
When asked what had changed from the 2023-24 campaign, Skinner referenced first and foremost the team “getting used to each other”.
Sources with knowledge of the situation, speaking anonymously to protect relationships, describe a close, tight-knit and connected squad who, on the whole, work hard and get on well with each other on and off the pitch. That, they say, is the main reason for their success.
Players will often socialise together on days off, walking their dogs together or meeting for coffee. The club’s turmoil off the pitch has actually brought them even closer together — but that can only get you so far.
With six league games and an FA Cup semi-final against Manchester City to come, United have to rediscover that steeliness. Sandwiched between Arsenal and City, they cannot afford to slip up.
This article originally appeared in The Athletic.
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