The NBA players who have regressed most in 2024-25
With the state of modern NBA contracts, a player regressing unexpectedly from one year to another can have huge consequences for a team's single-season outlook. There are various examples of that in just this very campaign.
Today, we are going to take a look at the NBA players who have regressed the hardest from 2023-24 to 2024-25. In some of their cases, these regressions are injury-related. The most important ability is availability, as they say.
But in others, it is just a matter of the player having a poor year, one that their teams will be hoping is just a blip on the radar and not a sign of things to come.
Joel Embiid (Philadelphia)
2023-24 stats and accolades: 34.7 ppg, 11.0 rpg, 5.6 apg, 1.2 spg, 1.7 bpg, 52.9 FG%, All-Star
2024-25 stats: 23.8 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 4.5 apg, 0.7 spg, 0.9 bpg, 44.4 FG%
Despite only playing 39 games last season, big man Joel Embiid was still magnificent in 2023-24, averaging nearly 35 points per game to go with 11 rebounds and over five assists. In spite of that, his Philadaelphia 76ers still went home in the first round of the playoffs, falling four games to two to the New York Knicks.
After that, Embiid made the questionable decision to participate in the 2024 Olympics, which, in hindsight, Philadelphia very obviously wishes he hadn't.
This season has been a mess for Embiid due to constant issues with his knee, which ultimately forced the 76ers to shut him down. That will mean that over the last two regular seasons combined, Embiid will have participated in just 58 total games, which is hugely concerning for various reasons, with the most obvious being that the former league MVP just turned 31, so if anything, his health luck could get worse as opposed to better going forward.
Regardless, even if it was due to injury problems, there's no question Embiid has seen one of the biggest regressions in the NBA this campaign, seeing his BPM plummet from 11.6 to 3.5 and his Win Shares per 48 Minutes (WS/48) go from 0.275 to 0.125. Basically, the advanced analytics believe Embiid went from being a Top 3 player in basketball in 2023-24 to being roughly in the Top 50 this season.
Here's hoping for Sixers fans' sake that Embiid and doctors are able to figure out how to clean up his knee problems.
For the latest Joel Embiid rumors and salary contract information, click here.
Paul George (Philadelphia)
2023-24 stats and accolades: 22.6 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 3.5 apg, 1.5 spg, 41.3 3PT%, All-Star
2024-25 stats: 16.2 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 4.3 apg, 1.8 spg, 35.8 3PT%
Between injuries and overall inconsistency, nine-time All-Star Paul George has seen a pretty huge regression from last season – his final with the Los Angeles Clippers when he was an All-Star – to this campaign. George has averaged just over 16 points and has shot 43.0 percent from the floor in 2024-25.
Podcast P even had to put his show on hiatus as the Sixers' season went down the drain. And now, according to reports, it seems George might get shut down by Philadelphia entirely as he deals with groin, knee and finger injuries.
George will be 35 by the time next season rolls around and did have a game pretty heavily dependent on athleticism, so that has to be somewhat concerning if you are a 76ers fan. Making matters worse is the fact that George is signed through 2027-28, a year in which he'll have a player option on the final year of his contract, one worth $56.6 million, when he's 37 years old.
Regardless, maybe with better injury luck next season, George will be able to look like his former star self and less like the player who regressed so mightily in 2024-25.
For the latest Paul George rumors and salary contract information, click here.
Lauri Markkanen (Utah)
2023-24 stats: 23.2 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 2.0 apg, 0.9 spg, 39.9 3PT%
2024-25 stats: 19.1 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 1.5 apg, 0.7 spg, 35.0 3PT%
Versatile Utah Jazz big man Lauri Markkanen has seen a significant dip in production this season, going from a 3.6 BPM to a -0.1 this year (the No. 100 mark league-wide) and from a 0.163 WS/48 to a 0.081 (No. 127 in the NBA). Making that particularly worrisome for Utah is the fact that the Finnish sharpshooter just signed a four-year, $220 million extension.
However, Markkanen's dip in play could have to do with the Jazz trying to take him out of his comfort zone this season in order to get him to potentially expand his game to hit the next level as a player (via the Salt Lake Tribune):
Miami is 28-39 at the moment and has lost seven games in a row.
Adebayo's biggest dip has been in his efficiency as a short midrange shooter, which used to be his sweet spot. Last season, the former Kentucky standout shot 51.5 percent from between three and 10 feet of the basket. This campaign, that number is down to 45.2 percent.
Considering Adebayo is undersized and often needs to pull up from the short midrange to score over bigger centers, that dip in production from that area has been quite harmful to his offense in 2024-25.
Perhaps going into 2025-26 knowing he'll need to handle a huge part of Miami's offensive load will help Adebayo bounce back next season.
For the latest Bam Adebayo rumors and salary contract information, click here.
Terry Rozier (Miami)
2023-24 stats: 19.8 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 5.6 apg, 1.0 spg, 44.3 FG%
2024-25 stats: 11.4 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 2.7 apg, 0.6 spg, 39.8 FG%
Over the past couple of seasons, NBA teams might have learned to avoid trading for streaky, undersized guards simply because they are putting up big numbers on bad teams. The Warriors learned that lesson with Dennis Schroeder, trading for him early in the season only to ship him out by the deadline, and Miami has learned that lesson with Terry Rozier as well.
In his final half-season in Charlotte, Rozier was averaging 23.2 points and 6.6 assists on nearly 46 percent shooting from the floor. So Miami, in need of backcourt help, traded a first-round pick for him, in a move that looks borderline disastrous at the moment.
After a somewhat decent start to his time in Miami, Rozier's play has fallen off a cliff this campaign, with the point guard averaging just 11.4 points in 2024-25 on 39.8 percent shooting from the floor. Rozier lost his starting job in Miami and has even seen some DNP-Coach's Decisions lately.
Maybe the neck injury that sidelined Rozier late last season is the reason for that. Or perhaps the fact he's under federal investigation for potential involvement in an illegal sports betting operation has also hurt his confidence.
Rozier discussed his season around a month ago (via the Miami Herald):
Maybe in a more comfortable team situation in 2025-26, Russell will be able to find his low-level All-Star form.
For the latest D'Angelo Russell rumors and salary contract information, click here.
Donte DiVincenzo (Minnesota)
2023-24 stats: 15.5 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 2.7 apg, 1.3 spg, 40.1 3P%
2024-25 stats: 11.6 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 3.8 apg, 1.2 spg, 39.3 3P%
Had we written this a month or two ago, we would have felt much more secure in adding 2-guard Donte DiVincenzo to this article. That's because the former Villanova standout got off to a very slow start to his time with the Minnesota Timberwolves after an excellent 2023-24 in New York.
Of late, though, DiVincenzo has looked much more like that player in Minnesota, as the shooting expert is averaging 14.6 points, 4.6 assists and 1.4 steals on 47.9 percent shooting from three over his last nine games, two of which have been starts – and eight of which have been wins for the Timberwolves.
So we'll still include DiVincenzo in this piece, as overall, as his numbers are still down overall from 2023-24, but it looks like the former national champion is really starting to find his footing in Minnesota.
For the latest Donte DiVincenzo rumors and salary contract information, click here.
Kyle Kuzma (Milwaukee)
2023-24 stats: 22.2 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 4.2 apg, 0.7 bpg, 33.6 3P%
2024-25 stats: 14.5 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 2.3 apg, 0.2 bpg, 28.5 3P%
After averaging a career-high 22.2 points in 2023-24, veteran forward Kyle Kuzma has seen his numbers take a sizeable dip in 2024-25.
In particular, his three-point shooting has been a huge issue, as Kuzma is shooting a career-worst rate from three on the campaign at 28.5 percent. Some thought that maybe he was just taking bad shots with the Washington Wizards, hurting his efficiency, but his production hasn't been much better with the Milwaukee Bucks, as Kuzma's three-point percentage has gone from 28.1 percent in DC to 29.3 percent on his new team.
In addition, Kuzma hasn't provided some huge boost to the Bucks, as the team is just 11-7 with him on the roster.
Regardless, things are going better for Kuzma in Milwaukee. In Washington, Kuzma was making the Wizards a preposterous 13.2 points per 100 possessions worse during his time on the floor. (Coincidence or not, the Wizards are 6-4 over their last 10 games after being 9-47 prior to that.)
Maybe the upcoming playoffs will be Kuzma's time to shine, making this regular-season regression seem like a thing of the past.
For the latest Kyle Kuzma rumors and salary contract information, click here.
Grayson Allen (Phoenix)
2023-24 stats: 13.5 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 3.0 apg, 0.9 spg, 49.9 FG%
2024-25 stats: 10.7 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 2.2 apg, 0.9 spg, 45.0 FG%
Maybe it's a little unfair to include former Duke Blue Devil Grayson Allen in this section, as he's still shooting a hugely impressive 43.4 percent from three on the campaign, but compared to last season, his numbers have still taken a dip overall.
In addition to his three-point shooting taking a dip, his BPM has also gone down from 1.3 to 0.2 while his WS/48 has gone from 0.132 to 0.093.
Of course, it would be ludicrous to blame Allen in the slightest for Phoenix's disastrous 2024-25, but we still have to mention him as a player who has regressed on the campaign.
For the latest Grayson Allen rumors and salary contract information, click here.
Mike Conley (Minnesota)
2023-24 stats: 11.4 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 5.9 apg, 1.2 spg, 45.7 FG%
2024-25 stats: 8.3 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 4.5 apg, 1.2 spg, 39.3 FG%
A very clear example of Father Time taking its toll here, Mike Conley, although still effective, just isn't the player he was in his prime.
Conley is averaging a career-low 8.3 points this season while shooting just 39.3 percent from the floor, both numbers considerably down from what they were in 2023-24.
Regardless, Conley is still a solid role player and isn't sinking Minnesota during his time on the floor by any means, it's just normal age-related regression going on here.
For the latest Mike Conley rumors and salary contract information, click here.
This article originally appeared on Hoops Hype: The NBA players who have regressed most in 2024-25
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