Michigan basketball has one objective this week in Indianapolis: Prediction, preview
In each of the past two seasons, Michigan basketball went one-and-done in the postseason, with a Big Ten tournament second-round loss in 2023 and a first-round loss last year.
No matter what happens, the Wolverines are guaranteed to last longer in the conference tourney this year, time-wise at least — as the 3-seed, they start in Friday's quarterfinals (along with 6-seed Purdue) at 9 p.m. in Indianapolis as the final team to tip off the Big Ten's postseason.
The tip time at Gainbridge Fieldhouse is late, but head coach Dusty May has no complaints about the extra few hours; as he pointed out, after five games in 13 days to end the regular season, his team certainly needed time to work on itself.
“We haven't lost faith; we know what type of players they are,” May said of his slumping squad. “(We) also let them know that you don't have to come out and score 30 to help this team win. Just make a hustle play, get an offensive rebound."
Of course, even if the Wolverines are one-and-done in the Big Ten again, they can top the past two seasons just by showing up next week: After missing the NCAA tournament in back-to-back seasons, the Wolverines are already locked into March Madness.
Still, U-M is in a unique spot — likely to be decently seeded for the NCAAs, yet in the middle of a downward spiral, having lost three straight, and four of their final six. Though it may not feel like it right now, as May knows, the postseason brings a clean slate. That's why his team has one objective this week: Play better before it becomes all or nothing.
“I think teams rise and fall with good play,” May said. “I think back to the best runs I’ve been on — there have been games when the big men had monster games, and there are games when the guards took over. But playing good, solid team basketball and on the floor, whether it’s your point guard or your power forward, just getting really good sound leadership on the court is important this time of year."
As the coach who has already been to one Final Four knows, all hope is not lost.
The Wolverines weren't flawless despite their climb from a program-worst 8-24 record. They turned the ball over more than any other team in the Big Ten, and finished near the bottom of the pack in defensive rebounding. Yet even with those struggles, the Wolverines spent ample time atop the Big Ten standings.
But May knows a U-M run in Indianapolis begins with getting its shooting stroke back. Of the Wolverines' 10 rotational players, nine of them are shooting worse on 3-pointers since the start of February than they did in the three months leading up to that.
(The one with better numbers? Sam Walters, who's been out with an injury for the past month.)
Neither Vlad Goldin nor Roddy Gayle Jr. have hit a 3-pointer in more than 45 days, Justin Pippen is 1-for-9 over that span and both Rubin Jones and L.J. Cason are 3-for-18 — 16.7% — apiece from the floor. Then there's point guard Tre Donaldson, who has gone from shooing 42.9% on 3s hist first three months to less than 30%.
Even Nimari Burnett has dropped from 44% to a 34.6% shooter on 3s while Danny Wolf (11 for 35) has hit less than 33.3% beyond the arc the past six weeks. Michigan, which hasn't shot better than 35% on 3s since the start of February, a run of 11 games in which the Wolverines are 360th in the nation (out of 365 teams) in 3-point shooting.
May didn't mince words about what he thinks that would normally mean.
“On March 10 (if you’d told me that), I’d say I’m probably on an airplane on March 10 to go recruiting … that we probably didn’t make the Big Ten tournament," he said "In full transparency, I wouldn’t think we’d be 14-6 — I think we’d be 6-14 if you told me we’re going to shoot 30% from 3 over the course of the Big Ten season."
"But we have guys that are going to make shots, without a doubt in my mind."
That has to start this week in Indianapolis.
Tony Garcia's prediction for Michigan basketball vs. Purdue
Both teams are headed in the wrong direction after splitting the regular-season series. Neither is shooting the way it wants, but one is playing in its home state. The pick: Purdue 75, Michigan 69.
Tony Garcia is the Michigan Wolverines beat writer for the Detroit Free Press. Email him at apgarcia@freepress.com and follow him on X at @RealTonyGarcia.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan basketball: Big Ten tournament all about finding its shot
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