March Madness: How to win your NCAA women's tournament pool and a look at what history tells us

Congratulations to the 12 teams left in the chase for the women’s Division I national championship.

Wait. We mean 68, right?

Not really. Technically, yes, there are 68 teams in the women’s tournament field, but history tells us that only 12 — at the most — have a chance to be the last team standing in Tampa in a few weeks at the Final Four.

Since the NCAA women’s tournament was born in 1982, there have been 32 No. 1 seeds that have gone on to win the national championship, along with seven No. 2 seeds and three No. 3 seeds.

That’s it. No other seeds need apply.

Also needing to not apply: Cinderellas. Put simply, teams with more than a handful of losses on their record don’t win the women’s national championship.

The only teams to win the national title with five or more losses on their record were Tennessee (28-6 in 1987), Tennessee (30-5 in 1991), Tennessee yet again (29-10 in 1997) and Texas A&M (33-5 in 2011).

So, using the less-than-five-losses theory — combined with the prerequisite of having to be a top-three seed — that leaves us with UCLA, South Carolina, Texas, TCU, USC and UConn.

But this isn’t about how to pick a champion. It’s how to win your bracket. (And yes, you should be in a women’s bracket pool, because A, it’s just as fun as a men’s pool and B, it's another chance to look smart.)

Here are some tips:

Why the rankings matter

We could almost just go ahead and say it’ll be UCLA, South Carolina, UConn, USC and Texas as the five finalists for the national title. The reason? They’re currently holding down spots 1 through 5 in the AP Top 25.

The only teams to be ranked outside the top five in the final AP poll going into the tournament — and this year’s rankings could change in the final pre-tourney poll on Monday — were UConn (No. 6 in 2004), Texas A&M (No. 7 in 2011), Tennessee (No. 7 in 1987), LSU (No. 9 in 2023) and Tennessee (No. 10 in 1997).

Pick some upsets ...

Teams seeded 9 through 12 went 1-15 in their Round of 64 games last season. That’s not good.

But in 2022 and 2023, those teams busted brackets. Teams seeded 9 through 12 got seven Round of 64 wins in 2023, and eight in that round in 2022.

There’s going to be a lot of chalk at the top. The middle is where a smart bracket player will separate from the others in their pool.

... but not really big upsets

Harvard is the only 16 seed to beat a No. 1 seed in the women’s tournament; it happened in 1998. Teams seeded No. 14 and No. 15 are a combined 0-240 in tournament games.

There have been five instances of a No. 13 seed beating a No. 4 in the last 20 tournaments — Wright State in 2021, Marist in 2012 and 2007, Liberty in 2005 and Middle Tennessee in 2004. It’s rare. Expect it to stay that way.

Round of 64 winners

Spokane 1: UCLA, Georgia Tech, Baylor, Ole Miss, LSU, Florida State, N.C. State, Harvard.

Birmingham 2: South Carolina, Indiana, Maryland, Green Bay, North Carolina, West Virginia, Duke, Vanderbilt.

Birmingham 3: Texas, Creighton, Ohio State, Tennessee, Notre Dame, Michigan, TCU, Louisville.

Spokane 4: USC, California, Kentucky, Fairfield, Florida Gulf Coast, Iowa, South Dakota State, UConn.

Round of 32 winners

Spokane 1: UCLA, Baylor, LSU, N.C. State.

Birmingham 2: South Carolina, Maryland, North Carolina, Duke.

Birmingham 3: Texas, Tennessee, Notre Dame, TCU.

Spokane 4: USC, Kentucky, Iowa, UConn.

Regional semifinal winners

Spokane 1: UCLA, LSU.

Birmingham 2: South Carolina, Duke.

Birmingham 3: Texas, Notre Dame.

Spokane 4: USC, UConn.

Regional final winners

Spokane 1: If healthy, LSU will be extremely tough. Going with UCLA here in a very close pick in a rematch of last season's Round of 16.

Birmingham 2: South Carolina had an argument to be the No. 1 overall seed. The Gamecocks will have to settle for a Final Four trip instead.

Birmingham 3: Texas is elite. But Notre Dame's guards are going to be too much. The Irish head to Tampa.

Spokane 4: USC vs. UConn. A rematch of a two-point USC win in December. UConn wins this time.

The Final Four

UCLA vs. UConn. Notre Dame vs. South Carolina. Oh, this is going to be fun.

UConn vs. South Carolina for the trophy.

And in the end, Geno Auriemma, Paige Bueckers and Azzi Fudd find a way. The Huskies — at long last — return to the women's college basketball mountaintop.

___

AP March Madness: https://apnews.com/hub/march-madness

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