Can Yuki Tsunoda succeed in his first race at Red Bull Racing? And what would be the definition of success?
Tsunoda was promoted to Red Bull’s senior team a week ago in place of Liam Lawson. The two drivers were teammates at RB’s junior F1 team Racing Bulls for the final six races of the 2024 season. After Red Bull Racing moved on from Sergio Perez at the end of the season, Lawson got the call to jump up instead of Tsunoda.
That move lasted two races. Lawson struggled at the Australian Grand Prix and the Chinese Grand Prix. He failed to make it out of the first round of qualifying in Australia and then crashed in wet conditions during the race. In China, Lawson qualified last for both the sprint race and the Grand Prix and finished the main race in 15th.
Those two results in a new car were clearly enough for Red Bull to swap Lawson and Tsunoda. And now the Japanese driver has a ton of pressure heading into his home Japanese Grand Prix on Sunday (1 a.m. ET, ESPN).
Tsunoda, 24, has shown good speed in his Racing Bulls car so far and lost out on a points-scoring finish when he had to pit because of a front wing issue late in the Chinese Grand Prix. But don’t expect that speed to translate to race-winning speed in Japan. Tsunoda is +4000 to win the race at BetMGM and is the No. 7 favorite.
The McLaren drivers of Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri are the favorites at +130 and +175, respectively. Norris and Piastri have won each of the first two races as McLaren appears to be the fastest team once again after winning the constructor’s title a season ago.
Red Bull moved on from Perez at the end of the season because his struggles placed the team behind both McLaren and Ferrari in the constructor’s standings despite Max Verstappen winning his fourth straight world championship. Verstappen is the No. 3 favorite for Sunday’s race, but he’s a distant third at +600. His odds are closer to No. 4 favorite George Russell (+1000) than they are to Piastri.
Verstappen’s success has dwarfed that of whoever he’s been teamed with at Red Bull Racing. Tsunoda joins Daniel Ricciardo, Pierre Gasly, Alex Albon, Perez and Lawson as drivers who have been Verstappen’s No. 2 since the four-time champ was promoted to Red Bull in 2016.
Just how much the team sets its cars up for Verstappen’s driving style at the expense of the No. 2 driver is a bit of an open question and could explain why others have struggled to consistently match his pace. Verstappen has one of the most aggressive cornering styles in F1. It’s an approach that’s unique and hard to replicate.
And that’s why Lawson shouldn’t have been expected to match ...
