Forest boosted in Europe race as Brighton hold Man City

Anthony Elanga, Pep Guardiola and Pervis Estupinan — Nottingham Forest have not played in Europe since 1995-96 [Getty Images]

Nottingham Forest boosted their hopes of securing Champions League football next season with a 4-2 win at struggling Ipswich.

The result allowed third-placed Forest to open a six-point gap to Manchester City in fifth, who were held to a 2-2 draw at Etihad Stadium by a Brighton side also chasing European football.

And with second-placed Arsenal facing fourth-placed Chelsea on Sunday (13:30 GMT), Nuno Espirito Santo's Forest side look set to gain on more than one front as they bid to participate in European competition for the first time since 1995-96.

Sixth-placed Newcastle, who play Liverpool in the Carabao Cup final on Sunday (16:30 GMT), are now only a point behind City and two adrift of Chelsea - and could also benefit as they will have a game in hand following this weekend.

Brighton, like Newcastle, are on 47 points, while Bournemouth's hopes of drawing level on that tally faltered with a 2-1 loss at home to Brentford.

The Bees are 11th, seven points behind City, with Fulham in 10th hoping to push their European credentials when they play Tottenham on Sunday (13:30).

'We have nine games, nine finals'

At this stage last season Forest were battling to stay in the English top flight.

However, despite overseeing the transformation from relegation candidates to a charge for Champions League qualification, Nuno is not ready to get carried away.

"You know what I think about the table," said Forest's Portuguese manager.

"What we have is to focus on ourselves, focus on ourselves. Work as much as we can because there is a lot of football to be played yet.

"Fourteen of our players are going away on international break. We wish them all the best and hope they can come back healthy so we can continue the journey."

Manchester City boss Pep Guardiola scratches his head — Manchester City are hoping to qualify for the Champions League for a 15th successive season [Getty Images]

Meanwhile, Pep Guardiola said he could feel the anxiety around Etihad Stadium during City's draw against the Seagulls, but he remains confident they will qualify for Europe's elite club tournament.

"I'm always confident - in that I am a master. I do have moments [when] I can doubt but I find the right way, the positiveness in everything.

"It is harder to get top four than people think and I respect Nottingham [Forest] and Brighton.

"I know it will be difficult for many reasons but we have nine games, nine finals."

Can Seagulls and Bees mount European push?

Speaking to BBC Match of the Day, Brighton midfielder Jack Hinshelwood outlined their growing confidence of qualifying for Europe for only the second time in their 124-year history.

"The run we're on we've gone into every game believing we can beat anybody. The fans have been unbelievable. If we can keep this momentum going it's going to be hard to stop us," he said.

"Last season we had a taste of what Europe can be like. As a club we're driving to getting back to that feeling."

Brentford captain Christian Norgaard also applied an optimistic tone to their prospects after defeating Bournemouth on the south coast.

"We knew, at this time of the season, where we are and where they are, it was a must-win game if we want to go for something a bit bigger this season.

"Why not try to go for it [qualify for Europe]? We are pretty clear of the relegation battle. Now we should be able to play with that freedom, to really try to attack the last nine games.

"There are so many good teams fighting for those European spots, but I think we have the quality to nail one of them."

Who is set to qualify for Europe?

Opta's League Prediction model estimates the likelihood of teams finishing in each position.

The model evaluates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and the Opta Power Rankings.

The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances, plus it considers the strength of opponents.

It estimates Liverpool are 100% certain to finish in the top four and have a 99.51% chance of winning the Premier League title.

Arsenal currently have a 99.15% probability of ending the season in the top four, while Nottingham Forest's chances are up to 65.88%, while Manchester City's hopes of qualifying for the Champions League for a 15th successive season have dropped to 57.12%.

Chelsea at 36.18% and Newcastle at 30.52% are also tipped to be strongly in contention, but there is then a drop-off to Brighton and eighth-placed Aston Villa, who are given just 6.48% and 2.47% chances respectively.

These figures were accurate as of Saturday, 15 March, 19:25 GMT

How do countries earn extra Champions League spot?

Each country's league earns a coefficient ranking based on how their teams perform in Uefa's three men's club competitions: the Champions League, Europa League and Conference League.

Coefficient points are earned through match results - two for a win and one for a draw.

The points earned by clubs from the same domestic league are added up and divided by the number of clubs the league has in Europe.

For example, if the Premier League had 100 points, that would be split by the number of teams playing in Europe (seven), giving England a coefficient of 14.28.

This season, bonus points are available to clubs playing in the Champions League, which is advantageous to leagues with more clubs competing in it, such as Germany and Italy.

Countries that finish in the coefficient table's top two earn an additional Champions League spot for the following season.

Those spots are awarded to the teams who finish in the first position below the standard Champions League allocation in those leagues.

In the Premier League, the top four clubs automatically qualify for the Champions League via league position, so any additional place would go to the team in fifth.

Additional spots for the 2024-25 Champions League were given to Bologna and Borussia Dortmund, who finished fifth in Serie A and the Bundesliga respectively.

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