F1 2025 season predictions: World champion, Lewis Hamilton vs Charles Leclerc and biggest shock
Roll up, roll up – it’s pre-season predictions time!
The 2025 F1 season has all the foundations to be one of the most action-packed in the sport’s 75-year history, with a title race set to be extremely close and Lewis Hamilton’s move to Ferrari certain to attract even more eyeballs to the sport.
Lando Norris is the favourite, given McLaren’s constructors’ triumph last year, with four-time world champion Max Verstappen his closest contender, chasing a fifth title in a row.
There are also six new full-time rookies on the starting grid, including British teenager Ollie Bearman – who impressed on debut for Ferrari last year in Saudi Arabia – and Hamilton’s replacement at Mercedes, 18-year-old Italian hotshot Kimi Antonelli.
Less than two weeks out from the season-opener in Melbourne, these are the predictions for 2025:
World champion – Lando Norris
Before testing, I was inclined to go with Charles Leclerc, on the basis that Ferrari could have closed the marginal gap to McLaren in the off-season. But a telling three days in Bahrain have changed that.
McLaren’s standout race-pace last week, with Norris at the helm of their 2025 MCL39 car, was the main on-track headline. Despite a tightly congested top four, McLaren are clearly the frontrunners ahead of the new campaign.
This year should see a limited number of race-by-race car developments, as all 10 teams look to divide resources between the current campaign and new engine and chassis regulations in 2026. Race nine, in Spain, could be a turning point, when the FIA’s new directive on flexi-wings comes into effect, when teams will face stricter limitations on the flexibility of their wings.
Nonetheless, it gives whoever has an advantage at the start a massive opportunity to make hay while the sun shines. And it gives Norris what could perhaps be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.
There is a school of thought that Oscar Piastri could challenge him strongly this year and the Australian will no doubt be eyeing an improvement in qualifying to pose a genuine threat over the course of 24 races.
Yet Norris is their standout driver. He needs to improve – particularly at lights out – but the Briton does have the quality to become a world champion. As he has acknowledged, if he is armed with the quickest car, there can be “no excuses” this time around.
Constructors’ champions – McLaren
While there was little to choose between Ferrari, Red Bull and Mercedes in testing, McLaren were the clear winners. Their 2024 constructors’ title – as they broke a 26-year duck – makes the papaya favourites this year and testing did nothing to dispel that.
Led by chief designer Rob Marshall (formerly of Red Bull), McLaren have cracked the code of this ground-effect era of regulations. The big question is: have they learned their lesson from a fractious intra-team policy last year?
Will Norris and Piastri bang wheels again? McLaren and Ferrari, with two of the strongest driver pairings on the grid, can ill-afford for their drivers to take points off one another, with clear lead drivers in Verstappen and George Russell at Red Bull and Mercedes.
But the signs are that, at least early on, McLaren will have the quickest car.
Constructors’ wooden spoon – Sauber
It was a torrid 2024 season for Sauber.
In 24 races, the team scored just four points. Valtteri Bottas, the ex-Mercedes race winner, failed to register a top 10 finish. Both the Finn and Zhou Guanyu were dropped at the end of the season.
The signings of experienced German driver Nico Hulkenberg and Formula Two champion Gabriel Bortoleto present a solid lineup. But testing still saw them well off the pace. They will do well to avoid finishing last again in 2025
Audi will have one hell of a job on when they take over for 2026.
Who finishes higher out of Hamilton or Leclerc at Ferrari?
Will the performances match the hype? That’s the big question ahead for Hamilton.
Despite the excitement at the biggest transfer in F1 history, the 40-year-old comes into this season after his worst-ever championship position of seventh. He also endured a torrid head-to-head qualifying record, losing 19-5 to Russell at Mercedes.
That will be firmly in his mind as he takes on arguably F1’s quickest driver over one lap. Leclerc has 26 pole positions but just eight race wins – a higher conversion rate will be on his mind this year.
Overall, I back Leclerc to finish higher – and be Norris’s closest challenger.
Biggest shock: Carlos Sainz will win a grand prix
Who is the only driver, other than Max Verstappen, to win a race in each of the last three years? F1’s so-called “smooth operator”.
The unluckiest man on the grid, Sainz was forced to cut short his Ferrari world championship dream after Hamilton’s move. The Spaniard has taken the long-term option at Williams, persuaded by James Vowles’s powerful vision for the future.
Yet Williams looked surprisingly quick in testing, despite all sights set on 2026. Sainz topped the timesheets on day two and set the fastest lap across all three days.
It’ll need a wet race. It’ll need retirements. But should he be presented with an opportunity at the front, Sainz has proved he can capitalise. He oozes composure.
It would be extra special, too, given Williams haven’t won an F1 race since Pastor Maldonado’s victory in Spain 13 years ago. And undoubtedly one of the stories of the season.
Best rookie – Kimi Antonelli
For sake of clarity, I see there being six full-time rookies this year: Antonelli at Mercedes, Isack Hadjar at Racing Bulls, Gabriel Bortoleto at Sauber, Jack Doohan at Alpine, Ollie Bearman at Haas and Liam Lawson at Red Bull.
The latter two are included, despite three and 11 race starts respectively, given it’s their first full-time seat in the sport.
In terms of pure pace, Antonelli impressed in testing. Toto Wolff disregarded the likes of Sainz and Fernando Alonso to promote the highly-rated Italian, who he sees as the sport’s next Max Verstappen. His junior record is terrific, too, and he’ll be healthy competition for George Russell at the Silver Arrows.
Best race – Brazil
I said Silverstone last year – and it was one of the best with Hamilton’s ninth home victory – but for point of difference, I’ll go with Brazil this year.
It’s a safe bet. Come rain or shine, Interlagos rarely disappoints.
Who will be the new drivers on the grid in 2026?
Franco Colapinto, if it hasn’t happened already at Alpine, with Doohan’s spot already looking under pressure even before the season begins.
Other than that, all other teams look pretty full for 2026, with two-year contracts aplenty. One punt could be British teen Arvid Lindblad – a member of Red Bull’s junior team – should Yuki Tsunoda or Hadjar be moved on at Racing Bulls.
As for Cadillac’s prospective 2026 entry? See below.
Who will drive for Cadillac in 2026?
Going by the remit of one experienced driver and one newbie, I’m going to go for Valtteri Bottas and Colton Herta.
Much to the surprise of many, Bottas has opted to stay within the F1 paddock this year as a Mercedes reserve instead of driving off into the sunshine. That speaks volumes about his commitment to the sport, despite his first season without a race seat in 12 years.
As for IndyCar star Herta, I think Cadillac will ultimately look to pick an American driver. Herta was close to a move to RB a few years ago, having impressed in a private test for McLaren. He looks the best-placed American to make the switch across the pond.
Article originally published on 4 March 2025
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