Early Sunday morning NCAA Tournament odds not favorable for UNC basketball

Sunday, March 16 isn't just any given day in 2025 – it's Selection Sunday, which officially kicks off March Madness. Teams with automatic bids wait to see which opponents they draw, while teams on the bubble cross their fingers – and hope the Selection Committee sees enough for them to get in.

One of those many teams waiting on the bubble are our North Carolina Tar Heels, who advanced to the ACC Tournament semifinals before losing to archrival Duke.

UNC has 22 wins and showed all season long it can play with the country's best teams, but failed to beat many of those teams. That's reflected in North Carolina's 1-12 Quad 1 record, with its lone victory coming against UCLA in December.

As we creep closer to Sunday night, the Tar Heels' NCAA Tournament chances continue fading. That's reflected in Bart Torvik's latest TourneyCast, which gives UNC just a 19.4 percent chance to make the Big Dance.

A few other bubble teams North Carolina fans should keep their eyes on are Texas, Xavier and Boise State. The Longhorns have the advantage of playing in a loaded SEC, which is now college basketball's premier conference. I don't understand the love for the Musketeers, which have just ONE Quad 1 win, but otherwise lack a strong schedule unlike the Tar Heels. The Broncos played in a Mountain West with plenty of NCAA Tournament hopefuls, but like Xavier, their strength of opponent isn't eye-popping.

If North Carolina didn't dig itself in a 20-point hole against Duke Friday night, we wouldn't be stressing nearly as much about bracketology. But alas, UNC failed to complete the comeback and plays the waiting game once again.

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This article originally appeared on Tar Heels Wire: Bart Torvik's TourneyCast gives UNC 19.4% chance for NCAA Tournament

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Early Sunday morning NCAA Tournament odds not favorable for UNC basketball

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Related

UNC basketball odds to make NCAA Tournament according to FanDuel

Joe Lunardi's Saturday night bracketology update has UNC in outside looking in

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