College basketball bubble watch, bracketology: The bubble teams to know on Selection Sunday
Selection Sunday is here.
Much of the men's NCAA tournament field is decided, but there's a fair amount of uncertainty on the bubble. There are around half a dozen spots that could go to any number of teams who have decent tournament cases.
Here's a brief look at the teams that we think are on the precipice of making the tournament. There will definitely be at least a few of them left on the outside looking in after the selection show.
Boise State (24-10, 14-6 Mountain West): The Broncos got blown out in Saturday’s MWC title game by Colorado State. Did they do enough in the MWC tournament to get into March Madness? Boise State won seven of its last nine games and its only two losses in that span were to the Rams. The Broncos rank 44th in the NET rankings.
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Indiana (19-13, 10-10 Big Ten): If Indiana gets in the field, it’ll be because other teams failed to leap them during conference tournament week and not because the Hoosiers got themselves into the field. Indiana closed the regular season with four wins in five games but lost by 13 to Oregon in its first Big Ten tournament game. If Indiana makes the field, the Hoosiers will assuredly be in Dayton for a First Four game. Indiana is 54th in the NET rankings.
North Carolina (22-13, 13-7 ACC): The Tar Heels have a strong analytics case at No. 36 in the NET rankings and 33rd in KenPom’s data. But UNC is 1-12 in Quad 1 games after losing to a Duke team without Cooper Flagg and Maliq Brown on Friday. A victory in that game would have likely put North Carolina in the tournament.
Ohio State (17-15, 9-11 Big Ten): If Indiana is out of the field, Ohio State probably is too. The Buckeyes finished a game back of the Hoosiers in the Big Ten standings and have a worse overall record. Ohio State has also lost five of its last seven games, yet is 41st in the NET rankings.
Oklahoma (20-13, 6-12 SEC): It was hard to see Oklahoma heading to the NCAA tournament during a five-game losing streak that included a home defeat to LSU. But OU ended the season 4-3 after that stretch and got wins over Mississippi State, Missouri and Georgia, all three teams who are seeing their names in the bracket on Sunday. Will that be good enough? Oklahoma is 43rd in the NET rankings.
San Diego State (21-9, 14-6 MWC): How does the committee view the Mountain West? We know that Colorado State is in the field by virtue of its win over Boise State on Saturday. New Mexico and Utah State should be as well, as they each finished 26-7. Things get dicey from there. It’s hard to see the MWC getting five bids, so if it’s a four-bid league, it’s down to SDSU or Boise. The Aztecs are 52nd in the NET rankings.
Texas (19-15, 6-12 SEC): It could be an extremely pivotal Sunday for the Longhorns. If Texas gets in the field, the SEC could have a record 14 of its 16 teams in the NCAA tournament. If Texas isn’t in the field, it’s not out of the question to see the school making a coaching change. There have been rumblings about Rodney Terry’s job status over the course of UT’s first season in the SEC. Thanks to the strength of the conference, Texas is 39th in the NET rankings.
UC Irvine (28-6, 17-3 Big West): The Anteaters are probably on the wrong side of the bubble after losing the Big West title game to UC San Diego late Saturday night. Irvine is just 62nd in the NET rankings thanks to a weak non-conference schedule without a signature win.
Utah State (26-7, 15-5 MWC): We mentioned the Aggies earlier as likely in the field, but they’re worth mentioning here just in case the selection committee does something weird. The Aggies are a solid 37th in the NET rankings and played just six Quad 1 games. But Utah State was 8-3 in Quad 2 games. That should be enough.
West Virginia (19-13, 10-10 Big 12): If West Virginia gets bumped from the field, we can blame the Mountaineers’ Big 12 tournament loss to Colorado as a big reason why. WVU had a chance to make an extremely strong case with a good showing against eventual Big 12 tourney champ Houston. Instead, the Mountaineers didn’t even get a chance to play the Cougars. West Virginia is 51st in the NET rankings.
Xavier (21-11, 13-7 Big East): Is the Big East a four or five-bid league? If it’s the latter, the Musketeers are in the field. If they fail to make it, a 1-9 record in Quad 1 games is a big reason why. Xavier counters that by going 8-2 in Quad 2 games and is 45th in the NET rankings. Like Indiana, it could be one of the very last teams in the field.
March Madness automatic bids 2025
America East: Bryant
American Athletic: UAB vs. Memphis, 3:15 p.m. ET Sunday
Atlantic 10: George Mason vs. VCU, 1 p.m. ET Sunday
ACC: Duke
ASUN: Lipscomb
Big 12: Houston
Big East: St. John's
Big Sky: Montana
Big South: High Point
Big Ten: Wisconsin vs. Michigan, 3:30 p.m. ET Sunday
Big West: UC San Diego
CAA: UNC Wilmington
Conference USA: Liberty
Horizon League: Robert Morris
Ivy League: Cornell vs. Yale, 12 p.m. ET Sunday
MAAC: Mount Saint Mary's
MAC: Akron
MEAC: Norfolk State
Missouri Valley: Drake
Mountain West: Colorado State
Northeast: Saint Francis
Ohio Valley: SIU Edwardsville
Patriot League: American University
SEC: Tennessee vs. Florida, 1 p.m. ET Sunday
Southern: Wofford
Southland: McNeese
SWAC: Alabama State
Summit League: Omaha
Sun Belt: Troy
West Coast: Gonzaga
WAC: Grand Canyon
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