Kickoff of the 2025-26 college football season is still an eternity away in today's landscape. Spring ball has yet to get into full swing, and there is still another transfer portal window for teams to operate in. In other words, a lot could change by the time August rolls around.
One team that has somewhat of a facelift entering this season is the Iowa Hawkeyes. They have replenished positions with young guys getting a shot and infused talent into the roster via the transfer portal.
How that new talent and those new additions mesh together is a story that only time will tell, but one that we can begin to take educated guesses on. CBS Sports looked at Iowa next year and analyzed their 2025-26 win total, which is set at 7.5 wins, and came to their answer with some curious, to say the least, reasoning.
Tom Fornelli of CBS Sports is taking Iowa to not just finish under the 7.5 win total, but to not even hit the .500 mark as he has them finishing 5-7.
Iowa
Over/under 7.5 wins
Wins: Albany, UMass, Indiana, Minnesota, Michigan StateLosses: at Iowa State, at Rutgers, at Wisconsin, Penn State, Oregon, at USC, at Nebraska
Analysis: I didn't plan on coming in this low on Iowa, but here we are. It's not just about the quarterback situation. Iowa has been trending in the wrong direction along the lines of scrimmage in recent seasons. When you combine the questions with a schedule that isn't overly friendly, I think this projection is rather reasonable. Pick: Under 7.5 (-170) - Tom Fornelli, CBS Sports
Taking under 7.5 wins is fair and something anyone has every right to do. The reasoning, though, needs to be sound to make that conclusion, and it may not be bulletproof here.
Iowa exploded offensively last year, rushing for 197.2 yards per game. During the 2023-24 season, they ran for just 115.9 yards per game, and during the 2022-23 season, they mustered up just 94.8 rushing yards per game. Iowa has not just gotten better on the offensive line of scrimmage; they have doubled their output from two years ago.
On defense, Iowa is returning Max Llewellyn, Ethan Hurkett, and Aaron Graves. The trio has 26 career sacks to lead the way up front.
Iowa allowed 115.3 rushing yards per game last year. During 2023-24, Iowa allowed 111.8 rushing yards per game, and during 2022-23, they gave up 101.3 rushing yards per game. This line of scrimmage has stayed stout over the years as well.
Taking under 7.5 wins is a fair play for the Iowa Hawkeyes in 2025, but if data and statistics can show us anything, that won't be due to a regression along the line of scrimmage.
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This article originally appeared on Hawkeyes Wire: CBS Sports offers pick for Iowa football's 2025-26 win total
