Breaking down the UConn women’s basketball team’s bracket, Final Four path in 2025 NCAA Tournament
STORRS — After cruising to a fifth consecutive Big East Tournament title, UConn women’s basketball coach Geno Auriemma would rather have turned around right away to start playing the NCAA Tournament rather than sit with the idle stress of waiting nearly a week for the bracket to be revealed.
UConn landed as the top-ranked No. 2 seed in the field when it was released Sunday night behind No. 1 seeds UCLA, South Carolina, Texas and USC. The Huskies’ path to the Final Four in the Spokane 4 region runs through Trojans for a second straight year, and they expect to make their third straight cross-country trip for the regional rounds. It’s hard not to look ahead in the bracket when the program has reached at least the Sweet 16 in every season dating back to 1994, but after 40 years and 11 national titles with the Huskies, Auriemma knows that maintaining focus is the biggest key to success in March.
“When you finish playing in your conference tournament, and you’re playing really well, you’d love nothing better than to … just keep it rolling and stay with the same routine that you had. Unfortunately, it’s the only time of the year where you get almost two full weeks where you don’t play,” Auriemma said on Sunday. “Players have no interest in practicing at this time of the year. Yes, for the NCAA Tournament it’s a little bit different, but players just want to play games. The trick is, how do we keep everybody engaged during all this downtime before we play?”
The Huskies begin their 2025 tournament against No. 15 seed Arkansas State (21-10) at Gampel Pavilion on Saturday (1 p.m., ABC).
What to watch in the early-round matchups
Upsetting 5-seed Kansas State will be a tall task for 12-seed Fairfield in the first round, but it’s still a favorable matchup for Connecticut’s other representative in the NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats have been one of the best teams in the country when star center Ayoka Lee is healthy, but though the redshirt senior is expected to play in the postseason, she hasn’t seen the court for more than five minutes since Jan. 19 due to a foot injury.
UConn hosts 7-seed Oklahoma State and 10-seed South Dakota State in Storrs for the first round, and the Jackrabbits are one of the most dangerous underdogs in the bracket, entering the tournament on a 19-game win streak. South Dakota State’s three losses this season were all to NCAA Tournament teams, and two were to top-10 opponents Texas and Duke. The Cowgirls can beat just about anyone at their best, but they have been highly volatile all season with four ugly unranked losses on top of their four top-25 wins.
The game between 3-seed Oklahoma and 14-seed Florida Gulf Coast is also one to watch as a direct rematch of last year’s first round game, a 5 vs. 12 battle that Oklahoma narrowly escaped with a 73-70 win. FGCU is one of the best stories of the tournament led by first-year coach Chelsea Lyles, who took over the team two games into the season after longtime head coach Karl Smesko left the program to lead the WNBA’s Atlanta Dream. Since their 0-2 start before Smesko’s departure, the Eagles are 30-1 and won their eighth consecutive Atlantic Sun tournament title to finish undefeated in conference play.
Who could UConn see in the regional?
If chalk holds the Huskies would face 3-seed Oklahoma in the Sweet 16, but the Sooners have one of the more challenging paths to Spokane even if they get past FGCU. The 6-seed coming to Norman is a red-hot Iowa squad that upset Michigan State and took Ohio State down to the wire in the Big Ten Tournament. The Hawkeyes don’t have superstar Caitlin Clark powering them in 2025, but there are plenty of players still on Iowa’s roster with tournament experience after back-to-back runs to the national championship game. UConn was eliminated from the 2024 Final Four by a heartbreaking two-point loss to Iowa, so the Huskies would likely relish an opportunity to return the favor.
If UConn reaches the Elite Eight for an 18th time in the past 20 seasons, a rematch of the 2024 quarterfinal against 1-seed USC feels almost inevitable. UConn pulled off the upset as a 3-seed in Portland last season to advance to the Final Four, but USC redeemed itself with a 72-70 upset of the Huskies on Dec. 21. The Trojans are built around superstar sophomore JuJu Watkins, the favorite to win national player of the year in 2025, and Stanford transfer Kiki Iriafen was a difference-maker with 16 points and 11 rebounds in the team’s win in Hartford.
But the Huskies also weren’t at full strength in that matchup with star guard Azzi Fudd playing just eight minutes coming back from a knee sprain. Sixth-year forward Aubrey Griffin also hadn’t returned from last season’s ACL tear. The Trojans have been one of the best teams in the country all season, but they didn’t gain any momentum in the Big Ten Tournament after blowing a 13-point lead to lose the championship game 72-67 to rival UCLA.
Final Four paths for other contenders
One of the biggest surprises on Selection Sunday was Notre Dame, which fell to a 3-seed in the Birmingham 3 region after it was upset in the semifinals of the ACC Tournament by Duke. The Blue Devils finished behind the Irish in regular-season conference play, but they vaulted up to the two line in Birmingham 2 with a win in the ACC championship game over fellow 2-seed NC State. But it will take a far bigger upset for Duke to reach its first Final Four since 2003 with its path running through reigning champion South Carolina.
Notre Dame is a top contender to make the Final Four as an underdog, matched up below Texas and 2-seed TCU with the opportunity to redeem a 76-68 regular-season loss at the Cayman Islands Classic. But even with wins over three of the top five teams including UConn, their late-season meltdown makes it hard to bet on the Irish. The team has ended its last three straight seasons in the Sweet 16, including an upset last year by Oregon State in a 3 vs. 12 matchup.
UCLA is also on upset watch in Spokane 1 despite its status as the top overall seed. The Bruins have never reached a Final Four in program history, and they have lost to a lower-seeded team in two of their last three tournament appearances. The committee didn’t do UCLA any favors either, placing LSU as the 3-seed and creating the chance for history to repeat itself after the Tigers eliminated the 2-seed Bruins as a 3-seed in the 2024 Sweet 16. NC State, this year’s 2-seed, returns with both stars from its Final Four run in 2024, and Ole Miss, the 5-seed, was the first team to upset a No. 1 team before the regional since 1998 when it took out Stanford in 2023.
UConn’s NCAA Tournament bracket: Spokane 4
Los Angeles
No. 1 USC (28-3) vs. No 16 UNC Greensboro (25-6), 3 p.m. March 22
No. 8 California (25-8) vs. No. 9 Mississippi State (21-11), 5:30 p.m. March 22
Lexington, Ky.
No. 5 Kansas State (26-7) vs. No. 12 Fairfield (28-4), 2:30 p.m. March 21
No. 4 Kentucky (22-7) vs. No. 13 Liberty (26-6), noon March 21
Norman, Okla.
No. 6 Iowa (22-10) vs. No. 11 Murray State (25-7), noon March 22
No. 3 Oklahoma (25-7) vs. No. 14 Florida Gulf Coast (30-3), 2:30 p.m. March 22
Storrs, Conn.
No. 7 Oklahoma State (25-6) vs. No. 10 South Dakota State (29-3), 3:30 p.m. March 22
No. 1 UConn (31-3) vs. No. 15 Arkansas State (21-10), 1 p.m. March 22
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