3 things to know about each team Duke might play
Half of this will be useful to remember Friday afternoon; the other half will just apply for Wednesday night’s game.
Duke’s opponent in the first round of the NCAA tournament is TBD. The winner of Wednesday night’s game in Dayton, Ohio, between American and Mount St. Mary’s will fly to Raleigh to face the 1-seed Blue Devils.
American and Mount St. Mary’s tip off at 6:40 p.m. Wednesday, seen on truTV. There have been two 16-seeds to beat a 1-seed, both fairly recently — UMBC over Virginia in 2018, Fairleigh Dickinson over Purdue in 2023. Of those two, only Fairleigh Dickinson won in Dayton and then scored its upset.
In the interest of getting ready for Duke to play one of these teams, let’s dive into both of them.
Here are three things to know about American ahead of Wednesday night’s game:
1. Slow … it … down
American is one of the slowest teams in the country when looking at a few numbers on KenPom.
The Eagles average 63.5 possessions per game, which is the 16th-fewest in the country (going into Tuesday’s games). There are actually three teams in the NCAA tournament field slower — 1-seed Houston, 7-seed Saint Mary’s and 11-seed Drake — but American plays a grinding pace.
An average offensive possession for American lasts 19.7 seconds; the average defensive possession takes 18 seconds off the clock (also, KenPom).
For some Duke perspective, the Blue Devils’ average defensive possession takes 19.1 seconds — tied for the longest in the country with Clemson. But Duke’s offensive possessions only average 17 seconds, which is 98th quickest.
2. Same ole, more success
Duke has a No. 1 ranking in the “Personnel” section of KenPom’s team breakdown.
So does American.
The Eagles are No. 1 in minutes continuity. That’s defined as “determining what percentage of a team’s minutes are played by the same player from last season to this season.”
Simple enough, right?
American was 16-16 without much of anything special to note last season. The Eagles’ longest winning streak was three games; their longest losing streak was also three games. Maybe it’s worth noting here that American and Mount St. Mary’s played last season, with American a 68-65 winner.
The minutes continuity part of this is what stands out. Of the eight American players who have started at least one game this season, seven were on the roster last year — the exception is a freshman (Wyatt Nausadis) who started one game.
It’s not only an older team, but one well versed in playing together.
(Duke's No. 1 ranking is in height.)
3. North Carolina-flavored staff
Duane Simpkins is in his second season as American’s coach and having broken an 11-year NCAA tournament drought, he might not be there much longer.
This is Simpkins’ first college head coaching job after working his way up the ladder. His previous gig was an assistant at George Mason for eight seasons — before then, he was an assistant and recruiting coordinator at UNC Greensboro. His stint in the Triad is the only time he’s spent outside of the DMV and Maryland area, having been at Towson for one year and been head coach of a couple of D.C. private schools (St. Albans School and Sidwell Friends School).
More relevant to the state of North Carolina is an assistant.
Jackie Manuel is in his second season as American’s defensive coordinator. The former Tar Heel started his coaching career at UNCG while Simpkins was there, marking a natural connection to join his staff when he became a head coach. Manuel spent two seasons working with UNC’s men’s basketball team, the first two of Hubert Davis’ tenure.
Here are three things to know about Mount St. Mary’s ahead of Wednesday night’s game:
1. New coach, same players
Mount St. Mary’s won 22 games with a first-year coach, Donny Lind. That transition came after the Mountaineers’ previous coach, Dan Engelstad, left for the ACC — he’s now an assistant at Syracuse.
The most impressive part of this might be how Lind built his roster — or, more specifically, how he didn’t need to.
“From the time I got the job, to not have anybody new go in the portal was surprising to me. I didn't think that was going to happen,” Lind said on Tuesday in Dayton. “(Senior guard) Xavier (Lipscomb) has a lot to do with it. Because of our relationship he was able to work behind the scenes and let everybody know what I was doing, I guess.
“But those guys were talented players but hadn't really had an opportunity to show really how good they were.”
Lipscomb is Mount St. Mary’s sixth-leading scorer; of the five in front of him, only Carmelo Pacheco wasn’t with the Mountaineers last year, having transferred in from Division II UVA Wise.
2. Shorthanded
Speaking of Pacheco, he’s a big missing piece for this game and would miss Friday’s game against Duke, if the Mountaineers advance. He suffered a finger injury and has missed the last three games; Pacheco is a 6-5, 190-pounder who’s a 46.4% 3-point shooter (77 of 166).
Mount St. Mary’s has also been without Terrell Ard Jr., a senior forward averaging 10.9 points and 7.2 rebounds per game. He missed seven games starting in January, returned for four, and then in the fifth game back, suffered another injury. Ard hasn’t played since Feb. 28.
How did the Mountaineers still win the MAAC tournament?
They got 14 points off the bench from Arlandus Keyes, including four 3-pointers, in the title game. Dola Adebayo, a 6-8, 210-pounder, has six double-doubles this season and four have come in the last seven games. Center Jedy Cordilia (6-9, 210) had 24 points and 27 rebounds in three games of the MAAC tournament.
It’s a team that has rallied in the face of some adversity this season.
3. Give it away, now
If you’re wondering how one of the worst teams in the country at protecting the ball won 22 games and is in the NCAA tournament … well, you’re not alone.
Mount St. Mary’s has a 21.7% turnover rate on KenPom, the sixth-worst clip in the country. Of the five teams with a worse turnover rate, only Stephen F. Austin at 14-17 didn’t lose at least 20 games. One of those teams with a worse turnover rate was East Texas A&M, which went 5-26 in its third year in Division I; another was Mississippi Valley State, which had one Division I win.
There isn’t even much of an early-season-games-skew-the-results factor here; the Mountaineers turned it over 19 times in their MAAC championship win over Iona.
Mount St. Mary’s overcomes its turnovers with defense. Specifically, it’s make-you-miss defense — opponents’ e-FG clip against the Mountaineers is 48%, which is the 54th-best defensive rate in the country.
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