2025 NCAA tournament picks: Predictions, odds, lines, schedule for West region, where Florida could reign
[Full NCAA tournament bracket revealed | Printable bracket]
The SEC was historically good this season. The conference received 14 NCAA tournament bids, which is a record. In some ways, the SEC tournament might have been more competitive than the Big Dance will be.
And Florida won the league tournament with ease, with its closest game being a nine-point win in the championship against Tennessee.
Florida might be the best team in college basketball right now. The Gators are well coached, they have balance, a college star in Walter Clayton Jr. and depth surrounding him. Florida is the second-most popular pick to win it all at Yahoo Fantasy Bracket Mayhem, but there are great arguments that Florida should be above the most popular pick, Duke.
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Here are the picks for the first-round games in the West Region, with all odds from BetMGM:
South region picks | East region picks | Midwest region picks
All times Eastern.
No. 10 Arkansas (+4.5) over No. 7 Kansas, 7:10 p.m. Thursday
Seeing this matchup in the first round would have seemed quite odd before the season started. Kansas was No. 1 in the preseason AP poll and Arkansas was 16th. Both were big disappointments. Kansas is a No. 7 seed, its lowest seed since 2000. Arkansas looked like it wouldn't make the NCAA tournament after a five-game losing streak in January, though it rallied to get a berth. Both teams had losing records in road games and were five games under .500 in Quad 1 games. It's impossible to predict what either team will do, so just take the points.
No. 11 Drake (+6.5) over No. 6 Missouri, 7:35 p.m. Thursday
You're going to see a lot of people pick Drake, which went 30-3. The Bulldogs play at a ridiculously slow pace but execute at a high level. Missouri went 2-5 down the stretch, but that can happen when you play in the SEC. Missouri is a pretty good team; those waiting to pick Drake in their bracket probably wanted the Bulldogs to draw a worse No. 6 seed. At KenPom.com, Missouri is the highest ranked No. 6 seed, at 15th overall. This is stubborn pick on a Drake team that has been fantastic all season, though it wouldn't be a surprise to see Missouri flourish now that it is out of the SEC meat grinder.
No. 15 Omaha (+18.5) over No. 2 St. John's, 9:45 p.m. Thursday
Rick Pitino and his Red Storm were one of the best stories in college basketball this season. St. John's won the Big East and reminded everyone that Pitino is one of the best coaches of all time. Still, Omaha can cover a big spread. It protects the ball pretty well, which is big against St. John's, and is a good 3-point shooting team. St. John's is very good, losing four games all season by a combined seven points, but Omaha can do just enough to cover.
No. 14 UNC Wilmington (+15.5) over No. 3 Texas Tech, 10:10 p.m. Thursday
Texas Tech is a good team with some injury issues. Forward Darrion Williams and guard Chance McMillian are both dealing with injuries. Each scores 14 points per game. Texas Tech coach Grant McCasland told CBS Sports Network he expects both players to be available for the first-round game, but they might be limited. UNC Wilmington is an experienced team with a good offense. Both of these teams will play slow, which makes it even harder for the favorite to cover a big spread. If Texas Tech was fully healthy this pick might be different, but a slow pace and limitations to the Red Raiders' second- and third-best scorers give an edge to UNCW.
No. 12 Colorado State (-2.5) over No. 5 Memphis, 2 p.m. Friday
Colorado State is the rare No. 12 seed that's favored (just the third one since 2005, according to BetMGM data analyst John Ewing), and it's valid. Memphis is a team that wins games but rarely blows anyone out. That's a big reason the Tigers' KenPom.com rating is 51st, the lowest among any single-digit seed in the tournament. The other No. 5 seeds rank 18th, 25th and 31st. Meanwhile, Colorado State has been on a tear lately, winning 10 in a row behind blazing-hot shooting. Colorado State's Nique Clifford, a 6-foot-6 guard averaging 19 points per game, is a fun watch. There are not many times that a double-digit seed is favored like Colorado State in this game, and it's usually for very good reason. Ignore the seeds, CSU is the better team.
No. 4 Maryland (-10.5) over No. 13 Grand Canyon, 4:35 p.m. Friday
If you pay attention to college basketball, Grand Canyon has become part of your consciousness. It's a mid-major but one putting a lot of resources into the basketball program. The Antelopes are in the tournament for the fourth time in five years, and because they've been a popular mid-major conversation, it might be tempting to pick them as an upset special. But this Grand Canyon team isn't as good as last year's. The Antelopes didn't win the WAC regular-season title and their efficiency stats are mostly down this season. Meanwhile Maryland, behind star freshman center Derik Queen, is a good Big Ten team without many weaknesses. It will be tempting to take Grand Canyon, but this isn't the mid-major to pick.
No. 1 Florida (-28.5) over No. 16 Norfolk State, 6:50 p.m. Friday
Norfolk State pulled off one of the greatest NCAA tournament upsets ever, beating Missouri in 2012 as a 15 seed. Norfolk State was a 21-point underdog. That's some great history but it's not repeating this year. Florida is fantastic, and it can overwhelm a Norfolk State team that isn't going to shoot many 3s and turns it over a lot.
No. 9 Oklahoma (+4.5) over No. 8 UConn, 9:25 p.m. Friday
UConn has had a weird season. The Huskies looked bad at the Maui Invitational, rebounded to play very well for a stretch, then was good but far from great in the Big East. Part of their struggles came when star freshman Liam McNeeley missed more than a month with a high ankle sprain. Oklahoma is an anomaly, getting a tourney berth with a 6-12 conference record. The Sooners weren't even shipped to the First Four, a sign of how much respect the committee had for the SEC. OU's star freshman, Jeremiah Fears, is worth tuning in for. The line just seems a little inflated, accounting for what UConn was the last couple years and not necessarily this season.
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