Youth groups project historic Gen Z voter turnout

Voters under 30 years old are on track to cast a higher-than-expected number of votes during the 2024 presidential election, with youth political groups reporting hour-long lines on college campuses nationwide.

“Across the country, we are seeing young people turn out in droves, forming long lines on college campuses in battleground states. Although no one should have to wait hours to vote, these lines signal what we have known for months: Gen Z will elect Kamala Harris and defeat Donald Trump today,” said Justin Meszler, programming director for Voters of Tomorrow.

Voters of Tomorrow, the nation's largest Gen Z political organizing group, is reporting long lines to vote in battleground states and districts, including at Florida State University, the University of Pennsylvania, the University of Wisconsin–Madison, Lehigh University, Arizona State University, Villanova University, Lafayette College, Cornell University, and Temple University.

The Harris campaign is encouraged by the high levels of enthusiasm and long lines on college campuses, an official said. They are working to send more support and surrogates to encourage students to stay in line and the campaign is pushing to extend voting hours on some college campuses in states like Pennsylvania, where voters are reporting seven hour long lines at colleges like Lehigh University.

Election officials are also sending more machines to these polling places.

Trump's campaign has also been banking on young men to show up in support of him after heavy investments in winning over the group in recent months.

There are more than 41 million Gen Z voters, and both former President Trump and Harris's campaigns have been investing heavily in reaching this demographic, which historically does not turn out in large numbers. That trend has changed since 2018, with each election seeing an even higher proportion of voters under age 30 turn out to vote. Democrats hold a 25-to-30-point advantage within this demographic.

According to Sohali Vaddula, the spokesperson for the College Democrats of America, college Democrat leaders from “across the country” report the “longest lines they’ve ever seen.”

“We are hearing from college Dems' leaders across the country that so many students are showing up to vote that lines at polling locations on campuses are the longest they’ve seen,” she wrote in a statement.

Voters of Tomorrow has also been tracking early voter turnout among young voters, and the demographic has exceeded the group’s projection of early turnout.

“Gen Z voters have blown past their early vote turnout projection by 42% nationally, according to Voters of Tomorrow’s benchmarks based on 2022 voting preference rates,” a spokesperson wrote.

“Pulling from official early vote totals from Secretary of State data as of Sunday evening, the group is tracking youth early vote numbers surpassing initial projections by 249% in Michigan, 118% in Pennsylvania, 80% in North Carolina, and 59% in Georgia,” he continued.

According to Anil Cacodcar, one of the leaders of the Harvard Institute of Politics Youth Poll, while there has been high levels of early voting among young voters, the organization has also seen a “shift among young people to in-person voting.”

“The energy on the ground with youth turnout is a lot more palpable than it was in 2020,” he told The Hill.

David Hogg a co-founder of Leaders We Deserve and March for Our Lives, said this turnout among young people is "no surprise."

"They are doing their part to make sure Donald Trump is defeated, abortion rights are protected and Democracy is saved," Hogg added.

Trump has banked on winning the votes of young men, focusing heavily on the effort in recent weeks. Courtney Hope Britt, the national chair of College Republicans, said the long lines reflect the GOP’s increase in support among Gen Z voters this election season.

“The GOP’s over performance with Gen Z this election cycle drives home the under-discussed reality: Gen Z is more active and more conservative than the Media has reported,” Hope Britt told The Hill.

There is a significant gender gap in support for Harris. Younger women back her by more than 30 points, while younger men only back her by a little over 10 points. Trump is hoping that younger men will show up for his campaign.

“President Trump will win this election thanks to Gen Z males voting for him with their first ever vote,” said Brilyn Hollyhand, chair of the RNC’s youth advisory council. “We’ve seen record setting youth turn out today. If and when Trump wins, Gen Z, specifically young male voters, will be a large part of what sent him over the edge!”

However, Democrats are dismissing Republican optimism about younger men voting for Trump.

“Ultimately, I think the numbers will show that a lot of young men will show up for harris than is being led to believe,” said Simon Isaacs, a Democratic strategist working to engage younger male voters.

“I'm tracking youth turnout across the country and the big surprise is just how many young women are turning out in college campuses,” Santiago Mayer, a researcher with Voters of Tomorrow, wrote. “Trump's mythical first-time male voters just aren't materializing for him.”