With Trump taking over the US military, it’s time to finally change course on Ukraine

For much of the last decade, Joe Biden and Donald Trump took turns lamenting America’s “forever wars,” with each advocating a rapid end to the 20-year U.S. involvement in Afghanistan’s civil conflict.

In February 2020, Trump negotiated a withdrawal agreement with the Taliban. Unfortunately, it was done without the participation or even the knowledge of the Afghan government, and without consulting other U.S. allies fighting alongside Afghans and Americans.

For its part, the Taliban did not honor its commitment to consult with the Afghan government regarding the future of the country. Now that it was clear the U.S. was intent on pulling out, the Taliban simply overran the government in Kabul. The agreement was fatally flawed in relying on the Taliban’s nonexistent good faith.

Yet despite Biden’s demonstrated willingness to reverse and unwind scores of Trump policies and executive actions, he made no effort to correct any of the plan’s deficiencies through either renegotiation or unilateral action. He explained later that, had he tried, the Taliban would have resumed the attacks against Americans it had suspended to get the favorable Trump deal.

Instead, Biden plunged rashly ahead, exploiting the opportunity to get out of Afghanistan and blame any ill consequences on his predecessor. His decision, rejecting the unanimous advice of his military commanders that he follow Trump’s plan to retain 2,500 troops in Afghanistan and keep control of Bagram Air Force Base, created the tragic and humiliating debacle of August 2022, which Trump aptly called “the most embarrassing moment in U.S. history.”

Now, with Trump and Biden again reversing the roles of predecessor and successor, Trump threatens to create an even more grievous American embarrassment in Ukraine.

The president-elect is inheriting a deeply flawed U.S. approach to Russia’s ongoing invasion that has become America’s latest forever war, albeit a proxy conflict since no U.S. forces are fighting on the ground there. The Ukrainians have never requested the presence of any foreign troops — only the arms for their own fighters to repel and reverse Russia’s criminal occupation.

The U.S. and NATO allies have responded by providing Kiev with billions of dollars’ worth of weapons and munitions, but the Biden administration has consistently denied transfer of the most effective systems needed to defeat the Russians. Even now that Biden has grudgingly allowed delivery of some advanced weapons, he has vetoed many of Ukraine’s requests to utilize them in the most productive ways. Biden’s persistent fear that more successful Ukrainian resistance will trigger Vladimir Putin’s dangerous escalation has paralyzed Ukraine’s initiative from the start of the war and created a debilitating strategic stalemate that plays into Russia’s war of attrition.

Just as he warned he would do in the campaign, Trump is pressing to have the Ukraine war ended even before he takes office in January. The goal is certainly laudable from a humanitarian and economic perspective, but the manner by which Trump intends to achieve it is morally wrong — and geostrategically misguided.

According to media reports, Trump intends to push some kind of freeze-in-place ceasefire that would pressure Ukraine to permanently surrender most or all of its sovereign territory that Russia illegally invaded in 2014 and still occupies. Trump’s plan will reward Putin’s aggression and would ratify the Obama-Biden administration’s passive acquiescence to Russia’s invasion of Crimea and Eastern Ukraine, after then-President Obama assured Putin in 2012 that he would be “more flexible” after his reelection.

Trump needs to show how a strong American president, unlike Obama and Biden, responds to threats and bullying. In addition to warning Putin against further escalation, he should tell him to start withdrawing from Ukraine, send North Korean forces home, and demand that China start sending no-strings financial assistance to help Ukraine rebuild its country.

If Putin refuses to follow these measures, Trump should tell him that he will remove all restrictions on Ukraine’s use of Western weapons except for civilian structures and historical and cultural sites, such as the Kremlin’s iconic onion domes. He should also threaten to increase the supply of long-range missiles to Ukraine until Russia stops bombing Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, and say he will work with NATO to accelerate Ukraine’s admission to the alliance. Further, Trump should also significantly increase sanctions on China for helping Russia conduct its aggression.

Finally, he should tell Putin and Xi Jinping that since Russia’s 10-year invasion of Ukraine has clearly emboldened Beijing to step up its own aggression against Taiwan, he is declaring formally and officially, with the full consent and approval of Congress, that America will unconditionally defend Taiwan against any form of aggression.

Since neither Russia nor China wants an actual war with the United States, these steps by Trump showing U.S. resolve would go a long way toward preventing China’s strategic miscalculation and assuring peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific. Maintaining the present course, much less making further concessions to either U.S. adversary, will inevitably bring disastrous conflict.

Trump’s decision now will indelibly mark his place in history.

Joseph Bosco served as China country director for the secretary of Defense from 2005 to 2006 and as Asia-Pacific director of humanitarian assistance and disaster relief from 2009 to 2010. He is a nonresident fellow at the Institute for Corean-American Studies, a member of the advisory board of the Global Taiwan Institute and member of the advisory board of The Vandenberg Coalition.