Will remote workers determine the outcome of today's election?

Today's U.S. presidential election could be one of the closest in recent history. The razor-thin margins between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in many polls illustrates how much impact even small demographic changes can have, such as those driven by the recent surge in remote work.

Research by the nonpartisan Centre for Economic Policy Research shows that the flexibility offered by remote jobs has allowed people from traditionally Democratic urban centers to relocate to more affordable suburban or even rural areas, many of which lean Republican or fall in swing states. These shifts inevitably affect voter profiles in battleground states, potentially influencing who wins in these high-stakes regions.

The remote work revolution has brought a level of geographic mobility not seen in decades. Census data show that the percentage of Americans working primarily from home has quadrupled in three years, while the rate of state-to-state moves has increased by more than 12 percent since 2019. Freed from the requirement of daily commuting, many workers are choosing to leave high-cost, left-leaning states and cities such as California, New York, and Chicago, and instead settle in states where housing prices are generally lower and taxes more favorable.

Politically, these migration patterns are significant. Many of those moving out of left-leaning urban centers to suburban or rural areas — often in politically red or purple states — are bringing their voting preferences with them. If even a small percentage of new residents vote along the lines of their previous state’s tendencies, it could shift the political dynamics, especially in close races where margins are often razor-thin.

Counties that offer the highest number of remote jobs tend to be areas that leaned Democratic in the last election. But while remote roles may have originally drawn workers to these urban hubs, many now find themselves opting to live in more affordable suburban or rural areas, a choice that’s increasingly feasible with flexible work.

Since the start of the pandemic, Americans who moved across state lines were 45 percent more likely to be working from home than those who remained in their states. As a result, workers with political preferences shaped in blue states or cities are now relocating to regions that are more ideologically diverse or conservative.

This migration may have already begun to have an impact in key swing states. Texas and Georgia, both red-leaning states for the last two decades, are experiencing demographic shifts that could change their political leanings. An influx of new residents from more progressive areas have made their political future less certain.

This also works the other way. The evidence suggests, for example, that the many Californians flocking to the fast-growing state of Idaho are overwhelmingly Republican. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) has made the same claim about his state — that its new transplants from liberal states tend to be Republicans and have given Florida a more conservative electorate.

Demographic shifts don’t always translate to predictable voting behavior. Some newcomers gravitate toward communities that already align with their political leanings. Others will adapt to the political environment of their new locations.

Either way, the current migration trends, accelerated by the widespread adoption of remote work, suggest that the electorates in these battleground states could be quite different from what they were in 2020. This creates a challenge for political campaigns, which now need to account for an increasingly mobile electorate with motivations and preferences that aren’t as easily defined by geography.

The influence of remote work on the political landscape extends beyond presidential elections. As more Americans leave city centers for nearby suburbs, local and congressional races are also affected. The so-called “donut effect” — the tendency of people to move out of dense city centers to suburban or even rural areas — is causing shifts within metropolitan regions that could affect the makeup of congressional districts and local elections.

In traditionally Democratic strongholds like New York City and San Francisco, there is a notable exodus from the urban core to suburban or exurban areas. Such a reshaping of the voter base could turn suburban areas from purple to blue, while in other regions it may consolidate right-leaning voters. These movements could ultimately alter the political balance in local races, congressional districts, and perhaps even in future state-level elections.

Ideology and party aside, remote workers also comprise a new voter demographic with its own interests and ideals. These are Americans who prioritize quality of life, affordability, and personal values over workplace proximity. Their mobility is increasingly leading them to areas with different political landscapes. Younger workers are especially prominent in this group, as they are more likely to work in industries that support remote or hybrid arrangements and have shown a greater willingness to prioritize lifestyle over job location.

Political parties will likely need to tailor their strategies to appeal to these geographically diverse, often ideologically mixed voters, who could play an outsized role in shaping both state and national elections in the years to come.

The 2024 election is shaping up to be a referendum on many issues, but the influence of remote work is an often overlooked factor that may nonetheless determine the outcome. As both parties vie for an advantage in battleground states, tracking these shifting voter patterns will be crucial. From Florida’s changing suburbs to Texas’s diversifying population, remote work-driven migration will likely remain a key factor in America’s political landscape. Politics in the U.S. is entering a new era — one where voters are more mobile, less predictable, and where the influence of traditional party strongholds may be slowly giving way to a more fluid and dynamic political environment.

The 2024 election may be the first to reveal just how much remote work is transforming the political landscape in America, but it is unlikely to be the last.

Gleb Tsipursky, Ph.D., serves as CEO of the hybrid work consultancy Disaster Avoidance Experts and authored the best-seller "Returning to the Office and Leading Hybrid and Remote Teams."