Will Belarus join North Korea in fighting Russia’s war?

Last month, Ukraine announced it had made its first contact with North Korean forces. The skirmish occurred in Russia’s Kursk province, where Ukraine has made gains in recent months.

The Ukrainians were successful during the attacks. According to reports, the North Koreans likely sustained casualties during the fighting, and Ukrainian forces are standing firm. Ukraine continues to hold over 1,000 square kilometers of Russian territory.

Aside from the event, the North Koreans and Russians in Kursk province are experiencing other issues. First, they are struggling to overcome language barriers. Russian officers have had to take time to teach North Korean soldiers basic military commands, which has been a painful process for Russia.

It is estimated that North Korea has sent around 10,000 troops to help Russia with its ongoing invasion of Ukraine. According to defense experts, North Korea’s involvement will not alter the scales of the war. Instead, it suggests that the Russian Federation’s invasion is not going according to plan, and that it is desperate for assistance.

In addition, the Russian and North Korean soldiers are struggling with military operations. Both militaries use different tactics, which has made coordinating efforts an issue. In one instance, the Daily Beast even reported that North Korean soldiers fired upon and accidentally killed Russian soldiers who were fighting alongside them in Kursk.

Given these issues, Russia may turn to Belarus to help it in its fight.

Over the past two and a half years, Russia has used Belarus as a staging ground for its operations. Russian forces have stayed in Belarusian barracks, the Russians have transported soldiers and equipment from Russia into Belarus and they have previously entered Ukrainian territory from the north.

In addition, the Russians have launched bombardments on Ukraine from Belarusian territory. Russia even deployed nuclear weapons to Belarus.

There are also advantages for Russia in having Belarus join its war. First, the Belarusian government and Belarusian military still operate in Russia. This would mean that Belarusian and Russian soldiers would be able to easily communicate with one another.

In addition, Belarus and Russia hold several military exercises and drills throughout the year. They are interoperable with one another as they have operated together before. Belarusian soldiers would be familiar with Russian tactics and battleground operations.

Finally, Belarus and Russia neighbor Ukraine. The soldiers in these countries are familiar with the terrain and landscape of the region, something the North Koreans lack.

However, the Belarusian government understands that sending its soldiers to aid Ukraine would be a costly and unpopular mistake. Most Belarusian citizens oppose the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The majority of citizens also do not want Belarus to send its soldiers to fight in Ukraine.

Aside from civilian opposition, numerous members of the Belarusian military do not support the war. In fact, several officers resigned in protest and others have joined foreign legions in Ukraine to fight against the Russian invasion.

Finally, the Belarusian government is aware of its unpopularity and fears the nation’s opposition movement. Belarus officials understand that sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine would spark outrage nationwide, leading to protest movements. Therefore, to avoid losing power, the Belarusian government is doing everything possible to push back against Russia’s request to send soldiers to join its war.

But Russia is getting impatient and desperate, and it may use forceful tactics to have Belarus enter the invasion. The Russian Federation understands that it is Belarus’s largest trading partner. Russian trade and loan programs have helped the Belarusian economy stay afloat.

Should Russia determine that the North Koreans are not enough to help it in its invasion of Ukraine, then Russia may opt to use financial pressure to have Belarus join. This would condemn thousands of Belarusian soldiers to their deaths.

Now, as Ukrainian forces continue to hold their ground against the invading Russian and North Korean forces, they will be on high alert as they monitor the situation in Belarus. Ukraine understands the complexities Belarus would bring to the war but is prepared to accept the challenge.

North Korea’s involvement in Russia’s war has done little to alter the battlefield. Russia will continue to turn to Belarus for additional assistance, and at the same time, Ukraine will continue to operate carefully to defend its homeland against the ongoing invasion.

Regardless of what is to come, Ukraine will be ready.

Mark Temnycky is an accredited freelance journalist covering Eurasian affairs and a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center.

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