Why the climate and sustainability economy will thrive in a Trump presidency

James Carville, former President Clinton's legendary strategist, boiled down electoral success and successful governance with the following slogan and reflection: "It's the economy, stupid.”

As he recently wrote, “Many Americans do not give a rat’s tail about [President-elect Donald] Trump’s indictments — even if they are justified — or about his antidemocratic impulses or about social issues if they cannot provide for themselves or their families.”

As we transition to the second Trump administration and the perceived political headwinds that threaten climate progress, it is important to pay heed to Carville’s quip and its relevance to the future of climate and sustainability.

As someone who has advised global corporations on sustainability for two decades, I see compelling evidence that economic forces will continue driving climate action forward. By a large margin, the most important issue to voters in the 2024 election was the economy and jobs. Immigration and social issues were relevant, but inflation and the perceived lack of good jobs delivered the popular vote to Trump.

To maintain his electoral mandate, incoming President Trump will have to deliver the economic goods. He will need to create jobs, rebuild the manufacturing sector and support the growth of technology, specifically artificial intelligence, which demands a massive influx of additional energy generation. The Trump administration will not be able to achieve any of these political objectives without continued investment in industries that have a positive impact on climate.

For starters, investment in the climate industry during the last Trump administration and the Biden years helped create 2.7 million jobs, roughly 40 percent of them in manufacturing. In 2023 alone, clean energy job growth outpaced national job growth domestically, 4.2 percent to 2 percent, on average. The manufacturing emphasis on clean energy job creation is particularly notable since these jobs are lucrative and do not demand an advanced degree. According to industry analyses, the average wage for a clean energy manufacturing job is approximately 25 percent higher than the national manufacturing average.

Green jobs are also disproportionately located in the states that propelled Trump to the presidency. For example, electric vehicle and battery production facilities are creating jobs in states like Georgia, Tennessee and Michigan; solar panel manufacturing in Ohio, South Carolina and Arizona; and wind turbine component production in Texas, Iowa and Colorado.

The economic benefits in those states extend beyond jobs. Wind energy royalties and solar land leases are spurring economic revivals in rural areas, while agricultural communities benefit from carbon capture and energy storage projects. Not surprisingly, climate programs draw widespread state-level and congressional Republican support in these states. Let's face it, the one concern that politicians of all stripes can agree on is reelection, the other is that AI is transformative and a driver of future economic growth.

The rub with AI is the unprecedented energy that it needs to power its systems. Microsoft estimates that data centers currently consume about 2 percent of global electricity. However, the rise of AI will dramatically increase energy consumption.

The training of ChatGPT-3 alone consumed an estimated 1,287 MWh, an amount of power that can power a large city of roughly 1 million people, including their homes, businesses, street lights and public transportation needs. By 2027, data centers are projected to consume between 3.7 percent and 7.5 percent of global electricity. The U.S. power grid will need approximately 250-300 TWh of additional annual generation capacity to support this growth by 2030. This represents a 17 percent increase in current U.S. electricity production.

Where will this generation capacity come from?

Initial estimates are that the domestic grid will need to add enough capacity to serve over 200 GW of peak demand by 2030. Major tech companies are already responding to these challenges. Microsoft has committed $1 billion to clean energy purchases, and Google is developing AI systems to optimize data center energy usage. Amazon Web Services is investing in 10 GW of renewable energy projects globally.

In other words, the Trump administration's hands are tied even if it wanted to — and I'm not convinced it does — completely pull back from clean energy investments. It has to continue to invest in renewables and energy storage or risk short-circuiting the AI economy. The same is true for the enterprise business community.

Businesses have to appeal to multiple stakeholders, and while government is an important one, customers, employees and investors are as, if not more, important. Fortune 500 companies that have made client commitments cannot walk away from them without alienating core constituencies, not to mention the existential threat climate change poses to their supply chains and core businesses. With more Big Tech companies currying favor with the incoming Trump administration, the president and his team would be remiss not to listen to what the broader business community says about climate commitments.

Major institutional investors reinforce this commitment. BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street collectively manage $22 trillion in assets requiring climate risk disclosure and mitigation strategies. The insurance industry has emerged as a powerful driver of climate adaptation, with leading insurers excluding high-emission projects and raising premiums in climate-vulnerable regions by an average of 27 percent since 2020.

Supply chain considerations have also become particularly compelling, as major corporations like Walmart Apple and Microsoft require their suppliers to meet specific emissions targets. Additional green jobs will be created as a result of the sizable financial investments these businesses will make to comply. A virtuous cycle indeed.

Beyond regulatory compliance, green investment is good for the bottom line. Studies have shown that companies with strong environmental performance show 4.7 percent higher profit margins than industry peers, while their supply chains demonstrate 23 percent less disruption during extreme weather events. Not to mention the goodwill that these behaviors engender with customers, employees and investors.

Climate progress will continue during the Trump administration because it has, and will continue, to unlock powerful economic momentum. Manufacturing jobs creation in politically important states, the energy demands of transformative technologies like AI, and corporate commitments make climate investment an economic imperative rather than an ideological choice. "It's still the economy, stupid,” and for the incoming Trump administration, supporting climate progress isn't just good environmental policy — it's essential economic and political strategy.

Keith Zakheim is CEO of Antenna Group, the world’s largest public relations firm devoted to the clean energy transition, and host of the Age of Adoption podcast.

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Why the climate and sustainability economy will thrive in a Trump presidency

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