Why shooting down mystery drones carries big risks

The buzz around the mysterious flurry of drones above New Jersey and other nearby states has prompted some officials, including President-elect Trump, to call for the U.S. military to shoot down the mystery objects.

But such measures come with major risks, experts say. The objects could be legitimate aircraft, helicopters or other innocuous objects, and debris from falling drones poses a threat to people and property on the ground.

“If people start shooting, things have to come down,” said Jeffrey Wells, a visiting fellow at the National Security Institute at George Mason University who focuses on threats from technology.

Many of the sightings appear to be aircraft or hobbyist drones, and the Biden administration has stressed there is no present threat to any government installations or military sites.

The frenzy around the swarm of flying objects points to a need for the government to increase its transparency with the public about what it is tracking, experts told The Hill this week.

Wells said he was worried that, without answers, the public might start shooting down drones themselves, which could lead to a fatal accident.

“There's a whole bunch of risks that come with that,” he said. “If you damage somebody's $500 drone, big deal, but if you hit a police helicopter or medevac helicopter or a utility company’s drone that's out to see where the downed wire is, now you're creating some additional life risk.”

The drone sightings, which began around late November primarily in northern New Jersey and New York City, have now spread to several other states mostly along the East Coast.

But for the past week, the drones have become a national story, leading to confusion and an air of mystery as to their origins.

Members of Congress and New Jersey and New York state officials are among those who have brought their concern and counsel to social media, calling for the government to take concrete action and to stop downplaying the concerns.

Trump last week called for the U.S. to clarify what was happening and to shoot them down.

“Something strange is going on," he added in a Monday press conference, accusing the government of hiding information.

And Rep. Chris Smith (R-N.J.) decried the failure of the U.S. government to protect American airspace.

“Why can’t we bag at least one drone and get to the bottom of this?” he said in a news conference. “Why can’t we even track a suspect drone to its origin? Have we so little control over our airspace?”

But some Republicans are joining Democrats in advising a more cautious approach. New Jersey state Rep. Brian Bergen (R) pumped the brakes on calls to shoot the drones down in a CNN interview.

“I have seen bullets fly through the sky. It's not a great idea to do over the United States. We shouldn't be shooting things down right now,” he said. “Things should not be shot out of the sky. That is a very dangerous thing to do.”

Pentagon press secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said that drone activity near military bases has become more common and there is no threat requiring a response.

“That said, if there is a threat, there are certain measures that we can take, some passive, some active in terms of detection,” he said. “It could include using our own drones to take down drones, or essentially redirecting them, things like that.

“They use appropriate measures in coordination with law enforcement to either knock the drone out of the sky — it wouldn't necessarily have to be kinetically — or they just monitor it,” he added.

Ryder also said the military is, for good reason, limited from conducting intelligence on domestic soil, preventing troops from carrying out a precise tracking of the drones.

If a drone is a threat, there are a myriad of ways to take down drones besides shooting: disabling them electronically, or using nets or even birds of prey, such as a falcon, to attack it.

Biden administration officials have explained there are more than 1 million drones lawfully registered with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and thousands of them are legally flying every day.

In the past few weeks, the FBI said it has received 5,000 reports of drone sightings, some of which it has investigated with advanced technology and visual experts. Still, they have stressed there is no national security threat.

There are some serious concerns, as drones have been spotted near two military bases in New Jersey. That’s part of a pattern of drones and unidentified, unmanned aircraft seen flying near other U.S. military installations in Virginia and even where American troops are based out of the country, in the U.K. and Germany.

Robert Pape, professor of political science at the University of Chicago and an expert on airpower, said the public’s distrust in the federal government has created a gap in communication that has led to the hysteria.

“This is an issue of public trust,” he said, “and what's happening is that the public is just getting more and more distrustful.”

Pape said the government should deploy more resources to detect the drones and do a better job of communicating with state and local governments and the public about the sightings. But he stressed Americans should “resist supporting political leaders” who call for shooting down the drones.

“It’s obviously not a prescription for stability and success,” he said of shooting them down. “We don't want to live in that world.”

Rep. Mike Waltz (R-Fla.), Trump’s pick for national security adviser, has also pointed to concerns about the government’s transparency, saying that “Americans are finding it hard to believe we can't figure out where these are coming from.”

"It's pointing to gaps in our capabilities and in our ability to clamp down on what's going on here. And we need to get to the bottom of it,” he told CBS over the weekend.

White House national security spokesperson John Kirby disputed the characterization that the U.S. was not being forthcoming.

“We are making a very good-faith effort to be as open and direct with all of you and with the American people as we can,” he told reporters Monday. “There's absolutely no effort to be anything other than as upfront as we can be.”

Kirby stressed that most drones are benign and, with modern technology improving, there’s only going to be more of them in the future.

“It's important for people to understand the ecosystem of drones over the skies of the United States. I mean, there's a lot of activity. And again, the vast, vast, vast majority of it is legal and lawful,” he said.

Congress is now stepping in to address some of the concern.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) called for the U.S. to deploy a special drone-detection device that uses radio wave detectors attached to an aircraft to determine the origin of the objects in the sky. He also said he would introduce a bill to get local police more drone detection tools.

New Jersey Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D) called for a comprehensive plan of action: deploying Reaper drones and counterdrone radars, creating an interagency task force to address the issue and establishing a streamlined process to communicate findings with the public, among other recommendations.

Other lawmakers have called for new regulations on where drones can fly in U.S. airspace.

All flying objects, either drones or aircraft, are required to transmit a broadcast signal using a transponder, which lets the FAA know what’s in the airspace.

Drones have wide latitude to fly outside of private property. Homeowners have around 500 feet above their house as part of their property before it’s considered public airspace.

Wells, of George Mason University, said it was vital for the U.S. to address critical gaps between local partners and the federal government in their efforts to keep an eye on the sky and inform the public about what’s in the airspace.

“Making those kind of more direct feeds to local government to inform citizens, that over your neighborhood really those are airplanes, those are helicopters, those are things that are being operated by your local utility company,” he said.

“We just need to achieve the same level of transparency as well as clear guidance at the federal level that says this is how we engage with local law enforcement to enforce federal statutes as well as to protect people,” Wells added, “so that the people on the ground don't feel that they need to panic, but also that they don't need to take actions buying their own large nets or shotguns.”

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