Why JD Vance is absent from key Ohio House campaigns
TOLEDO, Ohio — Republicans excitedly declared in July that Donald Trump’s decision to pick Sen. JD Vance as his running mate would help them win battleground congressional districts in Ohio.
Three months later, that doesn’t seem to be playing out in one of the state’s toughest elections — where the GOP is looking for any boost it can get as it tries to oust the longest-serving woman in the House.
Republicans had seen Rep. Marcy Kaptur's seat as one of their top pickup opportunities. And several factors went their way this cycle: The party drew a redder district in recent redistricting and they avoided the perils of a candidate with significant personal issues — a critical problem in 2022 that led to Kaptur winning by 13 points.
The GOP hoped Vance could give the party the final leg up it needed. At the Republican convention, two days after Trump selected his running mate, House GOP campaign arm Chair Richard Hudson (R-N.C.) said Vance “sets Ohio on fire” and would provide a “real lift” in key House races.
But a recent poll had Kaptur with a 10-point lead over Republican Derek Merrin, and the Ohio senator turned vice presidential candidate has barely factored into the matchup.
Vance is conspicuously absent from local billboards that prominently feature Trump, Merrin and GOP Senate candidate Bernie Moreno. He’s not been a part of Republican advertising on broadcast, either, according to a POLITICO review of AdImpact data, despite a plethora of outside spending. And in more than a dozen interviews in the Rust Belt district the day after Vance’s effective debate performance, local voters, politicians and union representatives were either apathetic or outright negative about him.
“I don't think [Trump and Vance] have very good character. The things they say, like just last night on the debate. … A lot of the things [Vance] was saying, just like Trump, were outrageous and inflammatory,” said Stephanie Garcia, a 55-year-old insurance worker who paused to talk on the streets of downtown Toledo and indicated she supports Kaptur. “Business wise, it might be best for the country, but character is a big deal for me.”
“I literally have members who told me: ‘I'm voting for Trump, but I'm splitting the ticket. I'm going to vote for Marcy, and I'm going to vote for Sen. [Sherrod] Brown.’ Because they see them in action,” said UAW Local 14 President Tony Totty.
Even for voters who support Merrin and Trump, Vance hadn’t factored into their decision. He was largely unknown to some before the debate.
“I didn't really know anything about [Vance], even though we're both from Ohio, but I thought he really did good [in the debate],” said Darlene Fisher, standing outside of a Kroger grocery store. She was supporting Merrin because “Marcy's been in there too long. I know her personally. She needs to retire.”
While GOP leaders had crowed about Vance after Trump picked him in July, rank-and-file Republicans more quietly expressed fears that he didn’t bring much to the ticket as a senator from a solid-red state with a political worldview similar to Trump's. And if Republicans aren’t using Vance as an asset here in Toledo, it begs the question: Where does he help the party this cycle?
Kaptur has embraced a now-viral clip that concerns Vance from last year’s UAW strike — when she quipped at him at the picket line: “First time here?” Besides that, Kaptur is steering clear of the vice presidential candidate and trying to keep the highly partisan national atmosphere out of her campaign.
Recalling that moment in an interview after finishing an event at the Lucas County Commission offices, Kaptur grew animated: “What does he know about the auto industry and the trucking industry?”
Kaptur has defied political gravity in a district that favored Trump by 3 points in 2020 by keeping close ties at the local level. She’s represented the area for over forty years, and signs of her influence are everywhere. She spoke with POLITICO next to a display in a local county office dedicated to “Lucas County’s Wall of Friends” — where Kaptur was prominently featured.
Just a day after the vice presidential debate and Vance’s strong performance, Kaptur shrugged off any effect he’d have down-ballot: “I think he has high ambitions, and so he's been successful in getting elected in Ohio, but he hasn't had time, really to have any results.” Vance was first elected to the Senate two years ago and built a career largely outside of politics before that.
Another point working against Republicans: Democrats’ switch at the top of the presidential ticket over the summer negated a lot of their extreme top-of-the-ticket liability. A late-July survey after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race showed Trump and Harris basically tied in the district, while Biden had a favorable rating of just 36 percent and a 60 percent unfavorable rating. Vance, who narrowly lost the district in his 2022 Senate race, had a 48 percent unfavorable rating.
Still, Republicans project confidence about the district moving in their direction. Ticket splitting between presidential and House candidates is always a tough swing, and at least some of Kaptur's 2022 victory is attributable to flawed GOP candidate J.R. Majewski.
"After 41 years in Congress with almost nothing to show for it, Marcy Kaptur has left Ohioans behind and Derek Merrin is strategically positioned to capitalize on the Trump/Vance momentum — flipping this seat red and ending Kaptur's tenure of inaction," said Mike Marinella, a spokesperson for House Republicans' campaign arm.
Merrin declined an interview request for this story. He instead sent a statement, saying he was running “to bring the fresh leadership Northwest Ohio needs to fight for those in our community who are truly hurting due to the skyrocketing inflation of the Biden/Kaptur economy. I'm proud to support the Trump/Vance ticket because their economic policies are going to put the American people first and bring back the American dream."
Vance spokesperson William Martin said in a statement that Ohio Republicans are "energized" and that they're confident voters will elect Trump, Moreno and Merrin in November. He added that "Senator Vance is laser focused on making sure we elect President Donald Trump back to the White House, and he is barnstorming the country in order to take our America First message directly to voters."
And it's not just in this district that Vance is a non-issue. He hasn't popped up as a surrogate for Moreno in the Senate race, nor is he a presence in the state's other competitive congressional race in Northeast Ohio, where first-term Democratic Rep. Emilia Sykes is seeking a second term.
Some Republicans defended the party's lack of focus on Vance, saying that with Ohio sliding toward Trump, the senator's time would be better served in more competitive swing states.
“He's got a lot on his plate,” said Republican state Rep. Josh Williams, who represents a Toledo-area district. “He’s been here advocating for change here in Ohio. I believe that there's enough momentum here in Ohio for a true shift in politics here.”
Much of Merrin’s argument against Kaptur has centered around the common battleground theme of immigration, and Republicans have also used the career-politician criticism against her in ads. “Marcy Kaptur has been in Congress for 40 years, 40 years of voting for open borders,” declared a recent National Republican Congressional Committee spot.
Kaptur, like many purple-district Democrats this cycle, pointed to the bipartisan border bill torpedoed by Republicans this Congress as part of the work she and other lawmakers had done to address a surge in migration at the southern border. And she embraces her lengthy tenure in Congress head-on.
“I think one of the problems the country is having right now is people don't stay in elected office long enough,” she said, pointing to long-term problems facing the region like water quality in the Great Lakes or rail infrastructure. “We have to have people who are experienced, and I just think that people have to dedicate their lives to the Republic, to their communities. ... We can't have green people being elected at every level who come with no experience in governance.”
Her longevity has given her a boost in name recognition, though that could also cut against her. The seniority issue elicited strong opinions from voters. Robert Voltz, a 42-year-old Jeep worker out walking his dog who said he was undecided on the House race, said: "I know who Marcy is. I don’t know who her opponent is.” And Susan Hinkel offered an expletive for Kaptur as she left Kroger, adding: “Time for her to go home.”
The 78-year-old Kaptur isn't giving any hints about her future retirement plans if she wins reelection.
“I don't know that answer, but the seniority I hold belongs to the people I represent,” she said. "They stuck with me through thick and thin, and I hope they'll say the same about me someday, that I stuck with them through thick and thin.”
Date: |
-
Top stories - The New York Times
Why Is Trump Gaining With Black and Hispanic Voters?
Five possible explanations for the increases in support, particularly among young men.1 hour ago - Donald Trump -
Top stories - The New York Times
Why ‘Saturday Night’ Omits the Influence of Carol Burnett
A new film about the show doesn’t mention her. But in many ways her hit sketch series helped define the early vision of Lorne Michaels.1 hour ago -
Business - The New York Times
Why Millennials Prioritize Spending Money to Improve Their Lives
Placing a high value on personal growth, millennials and Gen Z appear more likely than older generations to make hobbies and nonessential purchases a spending priority.1 hour ago -
Top stories - The New York Times
Why Millennials Prioritize Spending Money to Improve Their Lives
Placing a high value on personal growth, millennials and Gen Z appear more likely than older generations to make hobbies and nonessential purchases a spending priority.1 hour ago -
World - The Guardian
Welcome to the club: why are private members’ clubs booming?
Whether it’s an exclusive establishment with a years-long waiting list or a working men’s club at the heart of its community, there’s nothing like a sense of belonging. And when times are tough, ...2 hours ago -
Top stories - The New York Times
She Was a Key Aide to Eric Adams. Her Ties to China Ran Deep.
Winnie Greco, a top fund-raiser and senior adviser for Mr. Adams, has long had dealings with people and groups connected to China’s communist regime. He kept her close even so.3 hours ago - China -
Sports - ESPN
PSU escapes USC behind Warren's 17-catch day
Penn State hailed Tyler Warren as a "game saver" after he tied the FBS single-game record for tight ends with 17 catches in a 33-30 come-from-behind win in overtime over USC.4 hours ago -
Top stories - NBC News
Oregon-Ohio State is a reminder of why College Football Playoff expansion is a good thing
Saturday’s back-and-forth result was an example of why the expansion of the playoff this year — to 12 teams — could endure as a good thing. For exactly 60 minutes, both teams looked to be among the ...6 hours ago - College Football -
Sports - ESPN
Ducks' Holden tossed for spitting at Ohio State CB
Ducks WR Traeshon Holden was ejected in the second quarter of Saturday's game for spitting into the face of Ohio State cornerback Davison Igbinosun.8 hours ago -
Business - The New York Times
Executives and Research Disagree About Hybrid Work. Why?
Companies like Amazon have required a return to the office five days a week despite findings showing benefits to employers that allow some remote days.9 hours ago -
Top stories - The New York Times
Why These Americans Want to Be Mexican Citizens
More than 25 years after Mexico began recognizing dual nationals, some U.S.-born children of Mexican immigrants are claiming citizenship in the country that their parents once left.10 hours ago -
Politics - The Hill
Watch live: JD Vance hosts town hall in Pennsylvania
GOP vice presidential hopeful Sen. JD Vance (Ohio) is hosting a town hall in the battleground state of Pennsylvania Saturday evening. The event, according to the campaign, will focus on the economy ...13 hours ago -
Top stories - BBC News
Key moments of Alex Salmond's life and career... in 107 seconds
A look back at some of the key moments from the life and career of former Scottish first minister Alex Salmond.15 hours ago -
Top stories - The New York Times
Harris Releases Medical Information From White House Doctor, Daring Trump
Vice President Kamala Harris released a letter from her doctor saying that she is in “excellent health,” as her campaign tries to capitalize on the lack of health information shared by her rival.15 hours ago - Donald Trump -
Top stories - The New York Times
This Is Why Trump Imagines He Will Win
The way he is now running is the best window we have into what kind of president he will be in a second term.16 hours ago - Donald Trump -
Politics - The Hill
Watch live: Vance campaigns in battleground Pennsylvania
Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), former President Trump's running mate, is rallying voters in the critical swing state of Pennsylvania Saturday. His visit comes less than a week after Trump held two ...16 hours ago -
Sports - ESPN
Sources: Ducks DE Burch uncertain vs. Ohio St.
Oregon star defensive end Jordan Burch's status against Ohio State is in flux after he suffered a lower-body injury in practice Thursday, sources told ESPN.16 hours ago -
World - The Guardian
Trump campaign worked with Musk’s X to keep leaked JD Vance file off platform
Journalist who published vetting document on Republican running mate was kicked off site formerly known as Twitter. Donald Trump ’s presidential campaign worked with X to prevent information about ...19 hours ago - Donald Trump -
Politics - NBC News
Harris and Trump hit campaign trail with 24 days until Election Day
With just over three weeks until election day, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are hitting the campaign trail. Trump visited Aurora, Colorado Friday where he claimed ...21 hours ago - Donald Trump -
Top stories - The New York Times
In This ‘Oval Office,’ Tourists Can ‘Solve or Start a World Crisis’
The White House Historical Association has opened a new museum that aims to provide insight into the difficult choices that presidents face.21 hours ago -
Politics - The Hill
Mass voter challenges are on the rise: Here's why
With just weeks to go before the election, some people have had to fight for their right to vote.22 hours ago -
World - The Guardian
Trump makes gains as poll figures trigger anxiety for Harris campaign
The Guardian’s 10-day polling average tracker showed vice-president with two-point nationwide lead, down from 4%. Tightening poll figures have triggered nervousness and anxiety in Kamala Harris’s ...23 hours ago - Donald Trump -
Politics - The Hill
Key disaster loan program 'quickly exhausting' funds after hurricanes
Officials are warning a key federal program that provides disaster loans to businesses and homeowners is running critically low on funds in the aftermath of back-to-back hurricanes, increasing the ...Yesterday -
Top stories - ABC News
Abortion, voting rights, other key issues on the ballot in states this election
While the presidential race may be getting the spotlight this election season, key regulations are up for grabs in several states way down at the bottom of the ballot.Yesterday -
World - Yahoo News
Starmer Returns to Campaign Basics After a Rough First 100 Days
Yesterday -
Politics - CBS News
Trump campaign requested use of military aircraft for final stage of campaign
Former President Donald Trump's campaign requested military assets to enhance his security in the final weeks of the campaign, two sources said.Yesterday - Donald Trump -
Politics - CBS News
Trump campaign requests use of military aircraft
After two assassination attempts, and amid heightened intelligence about potential Iranian plots threatening to kill former President Donald Trump, his campaign is asking that military aircraft be ...Yesterday - Donald Trump -
World - The Wall Street Journal
Israeli Military Intensifies Campaign Against Hezbollah in Lebanon
Two peacekeepers were injured when explosions rocked the headquarters of the United Nations mission on the Lebanon-Israel border.Yesterday - Israel -
Politics - The Hill
House urges action on misinformation
Welcome to The Hill's Technology newsletter {beacon} Technology Technology The Big Story Tech leaders pressed on hurricane misinformation A few House Democrats called on major tech leaders to do ...Yesterday -
Politics - NBC News
Why Trump voters are poised to swing the Senate majority: From the Politics Desk
Former President Donald Trump's voters will decide whether Sen. Jon Tester wins another term in Montana — and whether Democrats can hang onto their Senate majority.Yesterday - Donald Trump -
Sports - CBS Sports
Battling distance and expectations, Penn State can emerge from USC game as Ohio State's true Big Ten threat
Big Ten teams are 1-8 on the season when traveling at least two time zones for conference gamesYesterday - College Football -
Top stories - BBC News
Why this hurricane season has been 'extraordinary'
Hurricanes Helene and Milton have bookended a particularly stormy period. What's behind it?Yesterday -
Politics - Politico
Milton threatens to trigger flood insurance reckoning for Congress
Lawmakers are preparing to step in if the hurricane overwhelms the National Flood Insurance Program.3 days ago -
Politics - NBC News
Chuck Todd: Why control of the House will shape the next presidency
One of the more remarkable aspects about the current political era is how closely contested control of all parts of the federal government is these days.4 days ago -
Politics - Politico
Capitol police chief: New intel bureau is key as Congress threats rise
October 3
More from Politico
-
Politics - Politico
The five factions Johnson has to appease to keep the speakership next year
His most outspoken and well-known critics are the nearly dozen GOP lawmakers who voted to advance an ouster effort against him earlier this year, but they’re not alone.Yesterday -
Politics - Politico
Senate Republicans to save millions of dollars on ads — thanks to the FEC
A paralyzed FEC won’t block Republicans from using a new strategy that allows them to run TV ads for their candidates at a fraction of the cost.2 days ago - Republican Party -
Politics - Politico
Johnson slams door on Congress returning for disaster aid
Congressional leaders say new disaster spending legislation can wait until the lame duck.2 days ago -
Politics - Politico
Biden: Congress should come back to fund storm response
One day after Hurricane Milton struck Florida, the president called on lawmakers to return from their preelection recess to approve more money for a fund that helps small businesses recover.2 days ago - Joe Biden -
Politics - Politico
Milton threatens to trigger flood insurance reckoning for Congress
Lawmakers are preparing to step in if the hurricane overwhelms the National Flood Insurance Program.3 days ago