Why JD Vance is absent from key Ohio House campaigns
TOLEDO, Ohio — Republicans excitedly declared in July that Donald Trump’s decision to pick Sen. JD Vance as his running mate would help them win battleground congressional districts in Ohio.
Three months later, that doesn’t seem to be playing out in one of the state’s toughest elections — where the GOP is looking for any boost it can get as it tries to oust the longest-serving woman in the House.
Republicans had seen Rep. Marcy Kaptur's seat as one of their top pickup opportunities. And several factors went their way this cycle: The party drew a redder district in recent redistricting and they avoided the perils of a candidate with significant personal issues — a critical problem in 2022 that led to Kaptur winning by 13 points.
The GOP hoped Vance could give the party the final leg up it needed. At the Republican convention, two days after Trump selected his running mate, House GOP campaign arm Chair Richard Hudson (R-N.C.) said Vance “sets Ohio on fire” and would provide a “real lift” in key House races.
But a recent poll had Kaptur with a 10-point lead over Republican Derek Merrin, and the Ohio senator turned vice presidential candidate has barely factored into the matchup.
Vance is conspicuously absent from local billboards that prominently feature Trump, Merrin and GOP Senate candidate Bernie Moreno. He’s not been a part of Republican advertising on broadcast, either, according to a POLITICO review of AdImpact data, despite a plethora of outside spending. And in more than a dozen interviews in the Rust Belt district the day after Vance’s effective debate performance, local voters, politicians and union representatives were either apathetic or outright negative about him.
“I don't think [Trump and Vance] have very good character. The things they say, like just last night on the debate. … A lot of the things [Vance] was saying, just like Trump, were outrageous and inflammatory,” said Stephanie Garcia, a 55-year-old insurance worker who paused to talk on the streets of downtown Toledo and indicated she supports Kaptur. “Business wise, it might be best for the country, but character is a big deal for me.”
“I literally have members who told me: ‘I'm voting for Trump, but I'm splitting the ticket. I'm going to vote for Marcy, and I'm going to vote for Sen. [Sherrod] Brown.’ Because they see them in action,” said UAW Local 14 President Tony Totty.
Even for voters who support Merrin and Trump, Vance hadn’t factored into their decision. He was largely unknown to some before the debate.
“I didn't really know anything about [Vance], even though we're both from Ohio, but I thought he really did good [in the debate],” said Darlene Fisher, standing outside of a Kroger grocery store. She was supporting Merrin because “Marcy's been in there too long. I know her personally. She needs to retire.”
While GOP leaders had crowed about Vance after Trump picked him in July, rank-and-file Republicans more quietly expressed fears that he didn’t bring much to the ticket as a senator from a solid-red state with a political worldview similar to Trump's. And if Republicans aren’t using Vance as an asset here in Toledo, it begs the question: Where does he help the party this cycle?
Kaptur has embraced a now-viral clip that concerns Vance from last year’s UAW strike — when she quipped at him at the picket line: “First time here?” Besides that, Kaptur is steering clear of the vice presidential candidate and trying to keep the highly partisan national atmosphere out of her campaign.
Recalling that moment in an interview after finishing an event at the Lucas County Commission offices, Kaptur grew animated: “What does he know about the auto industry and the trucking industry?”
Kaptur has defied political gravity in a district that favored Trump by 3 points in 2020 by keeping close ties at the local level. She’s represented the area for over forty years, and signs of her influence are everywhere. She spoke with POLITICO next to a display in a local county office dedicated to “Lucas County’s Wall of Friends” — where Kaptur was prominently featured.
Just a day after the vice presidential debate and Vance’s strong performance, Kaptur shrugged off any effect he’d have down-ballot: “I think he has high ambitions, and so he's been successful in getting elected in Ohio, but he hasn't had time, really to have any results.” Vance was first elected to the Senate two years ago and built a career largely outside of politics before that.
Another point working against Republicans: Democrats’ switch at the top of the presidential ticket over the summer negated a lot of their extreme top-of-the-ticket liability. A late-July survey after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race showed Trump and Harris basically tied in the district, while Biden had a favorable rating of just 36 percent and a 60 percent unfavorable rating. Vance, who narrowly lost the district in his 2022 Senate race, had a 48 percent unfavorable rating.
Still, Republicans project confidence about the district moving in their direction. Ticket splitting between presidential and House candidates is always a tough swing, and at least some of Kaptur's 2022 victory is attributable to flawed GOP candidate J.R. Majewski.
"After 41 years in Congress with almost nothing to show for it, Marcy Kaptur has left Ohioans behind and Derek Merrin is strategically positioned to capitalize on the Trump/Vance momentum — flipping this seat red and ending Kaptur's tenure of inaction," said Mike Marinella, a spokesperson for House Republicans' campaign arm.
Merrin declined an interview request for this story. He instead sent a statement, saying he was running “to bring the fresh leadership Northwest Ohio needs to fight for those in our community who are truly hurting due to the skyrocketing inflation of the Biden/Kaptur economy. I'm proud to support the Trump/Vance ticket because their economic policies are going to put the American people first and bring back the American dream."
Vance spokesperson William Martin said in a statement that Ohio Republicans are "energized" and that they're confident voters will elect Trump, Moreno and Merrin in November. He added that "Senator Vance is laser focused on making sure we elect President Donald Trump back to the White House, and he is barnstorming the country in order to take our America First message directly to voters."
And it's not just in this district that Vance is a non-issue. He hasn't popped up as a surrogate for Moreno in the Senate race, nor is he a presence in the state's other competitive congressional race in Northeast Ohio, where first-term Democratic Rep. Emilia Sykes is seeking a second term.
Some Republicans defended the party's lack of focus on Vance, saying that with Ohio sliding toward Trump, the senator's time would be better served in more competitive swing states.
“He's got a lot on his plate,” said Republican state Rep. Josh Williams, who represents a Toledo-area district. “He’s been here advocating for change here in Ohio. I believe that there's enough momentum here in Ohio for a true shift in politics here.”
Much of Merrin’s argument against Kaptur has centered around the common battleground theme of immigration, and Republicans have also used the career-politician criticism against her in ads. “Marcy Kaptur has been in Congress for 40 years, 40 years of voting for open borders,” declared a recent National Republican Congressional Committee spot.
Kaptur, like many purple-district Democrats this cycle, pointed to the bipartisan border bill torpedoed by Republicans this Congress as part of the work she and other lawmakers had done to address a surge in migration at the southern border. And she embraces her lengthy tenure in Congress head-on.
“I think one of the problems the country is having right now is people don't stay in elected office long enough,” she said, pointing to long-term problems facing the region like water quality in the Great Lakes or rail infrastructure. “We have to have people who are experienced, and I just think that people have to dedicate their lives to the Republic, to their communities. ... We can't have green people being elected at every level who come with no experience in governance.”
Her longevity has given her a boost in name recognition, though that could also cut against her. The seniority issue elicited strong opinions from voters. Robert Voltz, a 42-year-old Jeep worker out walking his dog who said he was undecided on the House race, said: "I know who Marcy is. I don’t know who her opponent is.” And Susan Hinkel offered an expletive for Kaptur as she left Kroger, adding: “Time for her to go home.”
The 78-year-old Kaptur isn't giving any hints about her future retirement plans if she wins reelection.
“I don't know that answer, but the seniority I hold belongs to the people I represent,” she said. "They stuck with me through thick and thin, and I hope they'll say the same about me someday, that I stuck with them through thick and thin.”
Date: |
-
Sports - Yahoo Sports
Ohio State vs. Oregon: How to watch, kickoff time, channel and more
Here's how to tune in to this week's NCAAF game between Oregon and Ohio State.15 minutes ago - College Football -
World - The Guardian
Trump makes gains as poll figures trigger anxiety for Harris campaign
The Guardian’s 10-day polling average tracker showed vice-president with two-point nationwide lead, down from 4%. Tightening poll figures have triggered nervousness and anxiety in Kamala Harris’s ...20 minutes ago - Donald Trump -
Politics - Politico
The five factions Johnson has to appease to keep the speakership next year
His most outspoken and well-known critics are the nearly dozen GOP lawmakers who voted to advance an ouster effort against him earlier this year, but they’re not alone.1 hour ago -
Politics - The Hill
Key disaster loan program 'quickly exhausting' funds after hurricanes
Officials are warning a key federal program that provides disaster loans to businesses and homeowners is running critically low on funds in the aftermath of back-to-back hurricanes, increasing the ...1 hour ago -
Top stories - ABC News
Abortion, voting rights, other key issues on the ballot in states this election
While the presidential race may be getting the spotlight this election season, key regulations are up for grabs in several states way down at the bottom of the ballot.2 hours ago -
Top stories - The New York Times
Daring Trump, Harris’s Campaign Says It Will Release Her Medical Information
Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign is trying to capitalize on a lack of health information shared by her rival. Candidates are often selective about what they choose to share.2 hours ago - Donald Trump -
Top stories - The New York Times
An Oval Office — Right Across From the White House
The White House Historical Association has opened a new museum that aims to provide insight into the difficult choices that presidents face.2 hours ago -
World - The Guardian
Lock up your TV remote! Why Jilly Cooper’s Rivals was guaranteed to be joyous television
Cooper’s novel is full of wisdom, wit and emotional intelligence. When put on screen, even the gratuitous sex feels oddly wholesome. It begins, of course, with bonking. A closeup on a bare male ...4 hours ago -
World - The Guardian
Tim Dowling: it’s my wife’s birthday. So why are we at the pub quiz?
My wife is enjoying herself but I am distraught. I’m not usually competitive, but quizzes do something to me. It is my wife’s birthday and I have found the perfect present for her, by clicking on ...6 hours ago -
World - Yahoo News
Starmer Returns to Campaign Basics After a Rough First 100 Days
6 hours ago -
World - Financial Times
From beans to chips, vertical integration differs from older models
Technical demands are prompting big companies to take design back in-house while others are pursuing environmental aims7 hours ago -
Sports - CBS Sports
WNBA 2025 Draft Lottery odds: Why the Dallas Wings actually have the best chance at next year's No. 1 pick
Dallas last had the No. 1 pick in 2021, when the team selected Charli Collier12 hours ago -
World - The Wall Street Journal
Israeli Military Intensifies Campaign Against Hezbollah in Lebanon
Two peacekeepers were injured when explosions rocked the headquarters of the United Nations mission on the Lebanon-Israel border.12 hours ago - Israel -
Politics - The Hill
House urges action on misinformation
Welcome to The Hill's Technology newsletter {beacon} Technology Technology The Big Story Tech leaders pressed on hurricane misinformation A few House Democrats called on major tech leaders to do ...13 hours ago -
Politics - NBC News
Why Trump voters are poised to swing the Senate majority: From the Politics Desk
Former President Donald Trump's voters will decide whether Sen. Jon Tester wins another term in Montana — and whether Democrats can hang onto their Senate majority.13 hours ago - Donald Trump -
Sports - CBS Sports
Battling distance and expectations, Penn State can emerge from USC game as Ohio State's true Big Ten threat
Big Ten teams are 1-8 on the season when traveling at least two time zones for conference games16 hours ago - College Football -
Business - The New York Times
Trump Blames Immigrant Surge for Housing Crisis. Most Economists Disagree.
The former president often implies that deportations will bring down housing costs. Reality is more complicated.17 hours ago - Donald Trump -
Politics - CBS News
Obama campaigns for Harris while candidates hit swing states
Former President Barack Obama hit the campaign trail Thursday in Pittsburgh for Vice President Kamala Harris. He made an impassioned plea, focusing his attention on Black men voters, a group Harris ...18 hours ago -
World - The Guardian
Why has Israel detained American journalist Jeremy Loffredo? | Seth Stern
It remains to be seen if the Biden administration’s platitudes about press freedom only apply to journalists they like. American Jeremy Loffredo was one of five journalists reportedly detained by ...19 hours ago - Israel -
Business - The New York Times
Why the NBA Is Making Abu Dhabi Its Middle East Hub
The league has held preseason games in the United Arab Emirates for three years. It says the impact has been positive, but others say it’s helping a repressive regime.19 hours ago - NBA -
Top stories - BBC News
Why this hurricane season has been 'extraordinary'
Hurricanes Helene and Milton have bookended a particularly stormy period. What's behind it?20 hours ago -
Sports - Yahoo Sports
Week 6 Expected Points: Backup RBs key to surviving tough bye week
Zachary Krueger reviews the expected fantasy points from the previous week and highlights some players he's eyeing for Week 6.22 hours ago -
Politics - NBC News
Cities seek more than $750K in unpaid bills for Trump campaign events since 2016
At least four cities and a county are still waiting to be reimbursed for costs associated with local law enforcement and first responders during Trump's visits.Yesterday - Donald Trump -
Politics - CBS News
Harris campaign surpasses $1 billion in fundraising, source says
The Harris campaign has seen a donation windfall in the three months since Harris became the Democratic nominee.Yesterday -
Politics - CBS News
Springfield, Ohio, grapples with real health challenges as well as false claims
What is really happening in Springfield, Ohio, is a microcosm of the health care challenges immigration hot spots throughout the country are facing.2 days ago -
Lifestyle - The New York Times
Here’s Why These Soft Gel Nails (With This Design!) Cost $255
Pricing for soft gel nail extensions depends on the length, size and brand, as well as any nail art, and can run several hundred dollars.2 days ago -
Entertainment - Los Angeles Times
Why Vampire Weekend found 'fifth-album energy' in 'Seinfeld' and the Beastie Boys
The band's latest offering jams together styles and textures with its usual intricacy while relishing a newly noisy edge.3 days ago -
Politics - NBC News
Chuck Todd: Why control of the House will shape the next presidency
One of the more remarkable aspects about the current political era is how closely contested control of all parts of the federal government is these days.3 days ago -
Politics - Politico
‘A temper tantrum from a deranged fanatic’
The latest filing from special counsel draws the wrath of Sen. Tom Cotton.5 days ago -
Politics - Politico
Johnson won't condemn Eric Trump comments blaming Dems for assassination tries
“I'm not going to parse the language of what people say at rallies,” Speaker Mike Johnson said.5 days ago - Donald Trump -
Politics - Politico
Supreme Court to take up Mexico’s lawsuit against US gunmakers
Mexico alleges that gunmakers have contributed to drug cartel violence.October 4 -
Politics - Politico
Capitol police chief: New intel bureau is key as Congress threats rise
October 3 -
Politics - Politico
Senior House Dem joins calls for Eric Adams to resign
September 27 -
Politics - Politico
Gaetz says he will no longer voluntarily cooperate with House Ethics probe
September 26 -
Politics - Politico
House Democrats likely to force action on measure formally reprimanding Clay Higgins
September 26 -
Politics - Politico
Facing GOP attacks, Zelenskyy looks to sell White House on victory
Republicans are sharply criticizing his Sunday visit to a Pennsylvania munitions factory.September 25 - Ukraine -
Politics - Politico
Watch: House passes spending bill to avert government shutdown
September 25
More from Politico
-
Politics - Politico
The five factions Johnson has to appease to keep the speakership next year
His most outspoken and well-known critics are the nearly dozen GOP lawmakers who voted to advance an ouster effort against him earlier this year, but they’re not alone.1 hour ago -
Politics - Politico
Senate Republicans to save millions of dollars on ads — thanks to the FEC
A paralyzed FEC won’t block Republicans from using a new strategy that allows them to run TV ads for their candidates at a fraction of the cost.Yesterday - Republican Party -
Politics - Politico
Johnson slams door on Congress returning for disaster aid
Congressional leaders say new disaster spending legislation can wait until the lame duck.Yesterday -
Politics - Politico
Biden: Congress should come back to fund storm response
One day after Hurricane Milton struck Florida, the president called on lawmakers to return from their preelection recess to approve more money for a fund that helps small businesses recover.Yesterday - Joe Biden -
Politics - Politico
Milton threatens to trigger flood insurance reckoning for Congress
Lawmakers are preparing to step in if the hurricane overwhelms the National Flood Insurance Program.2 days ago