Whole-Hog Politics: Setting a baseline for Trump and the GOP

Welcome to the first, ahem, serving of Whole-Hog Politics, a weekly note that aims to give you a quick and useful overview of the political scene.

Why Whole Hog? Well, first off, barbecue is delicious. And, in many parts of our great nation, you might find a pig roast at the center of a political gathering. In other places, it’s a clambake, a bean dinner, a fish fry, or, believe it or not, a possum feast.

In West Virginia, where I grew up and learned to cover politics, they still host ramp dinners. Every spring, politicians are invited to come and eat heaps of our strong wild onions and compliment the delicious taste without knocking their hosts over with their ramp-y breath.

(Still far milder than what they make the politicians eat in Arkansas.)

Our Whole-Hog identity is a nod to a time when people actually enjoyed politics and saw more fun in the necessary work of choosing our leaders. I work hard to keep what’s happening today in the proper historical context, which will be part of what we do every week in this note. It’s tempting as it is to believe that we live in “unprecedented” times, but every generation has felt that way. We have unique challenges and opportunities, but we are not different from the old politicos who figured out that voters were more inclined to hear a speech after a bellyful of barbecue.

Politics is too important to take so seriously all the time, so we’ll have a little frivolity as well as reader mail where you and I will be able to talk about what’s on your mind.

I also chose the name because we’re aiming to give you a wide array of political news, both from The Hill and some other outlets. In a time when hyperspecialization is the trend in media, we’re going the other way. My hope is that if you can spare 10 or 15 minutes of your week, you could feel reasonably up to date on what’s happening in American politics.

To be good citizens, we have to be informed citizens. But so much of what’s on offer in political news is meant for insiders — or wannabe insiders. It’s not a virtue, though, to make it hard for the people the system is supposed to be serving to have a reasonable understanding of what’s happening and what may happen next in politics.

I have devoted my vocational life for the past 27 years to covering politics. I love it. I love the data. I love the big, vivid personalities and dramas. I love these things for themselves, but more so because I love my country. Covering politics has given me a front-row seat to see how history is made, and what I want to do with you, gentle readers, is give you the best of all of it. Everything but the squeal, you might even say.

You’ll also get deeper dives on the topics I think might be useful or that you’ll find fascinating.

In our first outing, though, let’s keep it pretty simple and just do a little level setting. This note is getting underway at about the same time as a new Congress and a new presidential term. Given the absolute frenzy of activity in Washington, it’s hard to believe that we’re less than two weeks into the second term of President Trump. But the hard work hasn’t even started yet.

We are 641 days from the midterm elections, when voters will get to offer a judgement on the performance of Trump 2.0. That’s a lot of news cycles, but as Republicans race to get up and running with their first turn at unified government in seven years, they do so with the knowledge that the verdict of the voters will come swiftly.

In politics, though, it’s not so much about how well one does, but how well one does compared to expectations. The remarkable reprieve that Democrats got from voters in 2022 wasn’t an endorsement of the status quo — as the results in 2024 made clear — but rather that the status quo was better than the alternative and an improvement on where things had been when the Democrats took over.

As a new Quinnipiac University poll makes clear, the blue team is still reeling from the deepening dissatisfaction that set in during the second half of former President Biden’s term. The survey found that 57 percent of registered voters had an unfavorable opinion of the Democratic Party, the highest in the 17 years the question has been asked. It’s substantially worse than the 45 percent of respondents who view the GOP unfavorably, which about breaks even. Forty-three percent held a favorable view of the Republicans. But compare that to the corresponding favorable number for Democrats: 31 percent.

Ugh.

When it comes to assessing how voters feel about Republicans, though, we don’t need to go spelunking into the cross tabs. Maybe not since Franklin Roosevelt has a party been so closely identified with its supreme leader. Trump is the GOP and the GOP is Trump, and if you ever wonder if that’s so, remember the looks on the faces of normie Republican senators as they extolled the virtues of Cabinet nominees whom two years ago they would have crossed the street to avoid talking to.

So where does Trump begin?

Gallup has been tracking job approval ratings for every president since Dwight Eisenhower, and the venerable pollster has its first assessment of the second Trump term. What Gallup found was that Trump 47 starts in pretty much exactly the same place as Trump 45. Eight years ago, 45 percent of respondents approved of the job Trump was doing and 45 percent disapproved. Now, 47 percent approve and 48 percent disapprove. His first term had the lowest start in history. His second term has the second lowest.

This tells us a couple of things. First, there’s no real honeymoon for a repeat president. Trump remains a hugely divisive figure, beloved by some, intensely loathed by others but with a net effect of leaving him slightly underwater and without some kind of broad popular mandate. This suggests that the 2024 election was far more a referendum on the party in power than a mandate for a full-bore MAGA agenda.

But it also carries good news for the GOP. The story of many of Trump’s predecessors, including Biden, was to come in on a high and immediately start losing ground with voters as soon as the difficulties of governing presented themselves. With Trump, there’s no enchantment outside of the GOP base, so there can’t be so much disenchantment.

That’s not to say that Trump and his party can't lose ground, but it is definitely to say that the electorate has managed its own expectations, which may prove useful when Democrats come hard after the party in power for the next 641 days.

Holy croakano! We welcome your feedback, so please email us with your tips, corrections, reactions, amplifications, etc. at WHOLEHOGPOLITICS@GMAIL.COM. If you’d like to be considered for publication, please include your real name and hometown. If you don’t want your comments to be made public, please specify.

NUTRITIONAL INFORMATION

Trump Job Performance

Average Approval: 47.6%

Average Disapproval: 44.2%

Net Score: +3.4 points

[Average includes: Emerson: 49% approve, 41% disapprove; Quinnipiac 46% approve, 43% disapprove; Gallup 47% approve, 48% disapprove; Ipsos/Reuters: 45% approve, 46% disapprove; Echelon Insights: 51% approve, 43% disapprove]

Little support for sweeping tariffs

Would you favor or oppose imposing a tariff, also known as an import tax, on all goods brought into the U.S. from other countries?

Strongly/somewhat favor: 29%

Neither favor nor oppose: 24%

Strongly/somewhat oppose: 46%

[AP/NORC January 2025 poll of 1,147 U.S. adults]

ON THE SIDE: HALL OF INFAMY

The Atlantic: “On a Wednesday morning in October 2014, in a garage in the woods of Pennsylvania, Tommy Trotta tried on some new jewelry: a set of rings belonging to the baseball great Yogi Berra. … Trotta never competed past Little League. But there was more than one way into a hall of fame. In a methodically planned heist in the dark and rain of that October morning, he’d climbed onto a balcony at the Yogi Berra Museum & Learning Center, in Little Falls, New Jersey. ... He’d cut through a double-reinforced window built to withstand foul balls from an adjoining stadium. Then he’d used a 20-volt DeWalt grinder, with a fire-rescue blade, to slice open a bulletproof display case labeled BASEBALL’S RING LEADER. … Where earlier generations [of northeastern Pennsylvanians] had descended into the ground for raw minerals, Trotta broke through windows. His mother lode was the championship rings, belts, and trophies — veined with precious metals and gemstones — that sat, almost for the taking, inside low-security sports museums across America.”

PRIME CUTS

Tim Scott courts Brian Kemp for Georgia Senate race: Semafor: “The newly elected chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee met last week with Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, who’s emerging as the top potential GOP recruit for the midterm elections as the party seeks a challenger to Sen. Jon Ossoff. … Kemp is focused on his state’s legislative session and isn’t in a rush to decide on a Senate run. … Until he makes a decision, though, he’s likely to freeze the entire field in Georgia. … This is undeniably a tough cycle to lead the NRSC, but Scott has a few advantages. The biggest one is his 53-seat majority to defend. Democrats need to net four seats to claw back the Senate, which means defending Ossoff, Sen. Gary Peters, D-Mich., and the rest of their incumbents — plus beating [Susan Collins], [Thom Tillis] and two more Republicans in red states.”

Michigan’s Gary Peters to retire as Dem bench eyes promotion: The Hill: “Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) announced on Tuesday that he will not seek reelection to the Senate in 2026, dealing a blow to Democrats in their hopes of clawing back seats in the midterms. … Democrat Debbie Stabenow retired at the end of 2024 and Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) narrowly kept her seat in Democratic hands. … Now, the party must put up a repeat performance in 2026. … Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) was quick out of the gate to say she will not be running for the seat. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is also likely to consider running to replace Peters. … On the GOP side, a number of names are expected to take a look, including Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Mich.), Rep. John James (R-Mich.) and former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.). The GOP has not won a Senate seat [in Michigan] in three decades.”

Haaland will run for governor of New Mexico: The Hill: “Former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland will run to be the next governor of New Mexico. … She will be jumping into the race to replace Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D), who is term-limited. Haaland most recently led the Biden administration Interior Department, an agency that oversees public lands, oceans, energy development and tribal affairs. The appointment made her the first Native Cabinet secretary. She is a member of the Pueblo of Laguna and describes herself as a ‘35th generation New Mexican.’ … Previously, she represented New Mexico’s 1st District in Congress. … Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.), who was also seen as a potential gubernatorial candidate, recently told Semafor that he will not be running.”

Nancy Mace eyes 2026 promotion: Politico: “Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) publicly acknowledged that she’s eyeing a 2026 gubernatorial run — potentially setting up the firebrand member of Congress for another statewide run. Mace has long been rumored to be considering a bid, with Gov. Henry McMaster termed-out in 2026. … Trump backed Mace in her GOP primary race for South Carolina’s 1st District last year, and she has recently cast herself as a die-hard supporter of the president. … But Trump and Mace haven’t always been on the same page politically. She heavily criticized Trump after the Jan. 6, 2021, storming of the Capitol. … Should she enter the race, she’ll likely face competition from several other South Carolina politicians. State Attorney General Alan Wilson and Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette are also potential candidates, among others.”

GOP immigration push splits Dems: Wall Street Journal: “Days into full Republican control of Washington, House Democrats’ divisions on immigration are spilling into the open, with members split on how forcefully to respond to Trump’s executive orders on immigration and other Republican-led border security measures. … Republicans’ rapid moves have exposed long-simmering rifts between Democrats’ progressive wing and more centrist members. … Dozens of members have warmed to tighter restrictions to respond to voter concerns. But others say they want Democratic leaders to more forcefully respond to Republican-led immigration measures, which they see as cruel. … Some Democrats wanted leaders to have taken a stronger stance against the Laken Riley bill. … During Trump’s first term, Democrats were unified in opposing Trump’s policies. … It is different this time, with party leaders saying they will be more selective with their opposition.”

SHORT ORDER

Former Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) sentenced to 11 years in prison—New Jersey Globe

Dems flip Iowa state Senate seat that Trump carried by 21 points—Des Moines Register

Pelosi backs Wikler as DNC chair election nears—The Hill

Colorado Dems snag top recruit for battleground House district—Colorado Sun

TABLE TALK

Hey now…

“People are aroused. I haven't seen people so aroused in a very, very long time.”—Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) speaking to reporters at a press conference.

What was the question?

“It’s one thing to win an election, but another thing to win this cultural moment we’ve been having where people see Republicans as the answer.”—Vice President Vance speaking at a closed-door retreat for House Republicans.

You should email us! Write to WHOLEHOGPOLITICS@GMAIL.COM with your tips, kudos, criticisms, insights, rediscovered words, wonderful names, recipes, and, always, good jokes. Please include your real name — at least first and last — and hometown. Make sure to let us know in the email if you want to keep your submission private. My colleague, the nimble Nate Moore, and I will look for your emails and then share the most interesting ones and my responses here. Clickety clack!

FOR DESSERT

Picture If You Will: WTOC: “In November, a Savannah man did what hundreds of millions of Americans do every year: he bought something online. But Sylvester Franklin did not get what he paid for. Franklin decided it was time [for] some new tools, so he logged onto AliExpress, and ordered a drill. ‘They sent me this. A picture is what they sent me,’ Franklin says. That’s right: Franklin ordered a drill from AliExpress — and what he got was a printed photo of the drill he ordered. But it gets worse. ‘I paid $22.47 for a pressure washer, and this is what I get,’ Franklin says. ‘It’s a screw.’ Franklin has been going back and forth with AliExpress since he ordered the items in November, still hasn’t received a refund. … Franklin says he only spent around $40, but wants others to take a lesson from his story: this picture may be worth a thousand words but not the 40 bucks he paid.”

Chris Stirewalt is the politics editor for The Hill and NewsNation, the host of "The Hill Sunday" on NewsNation and The CW, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and the author of books on politics and the media. Nate Moore contributed to this report.

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