Whole Hog Politics: Inflation clouds hang over budget battle

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Tails of genius

As the 2012 general election was blossoming into full flower, Gallup asked voters who was most to blame for the sorry state of the U.S. economy: Incumbent President Barack Obama or his predecessor, George W. Bush.

It was, in a way, the essential question about Obama’s reelection hopes. The economy was gaining ground, but only barely. The postrecession rebound that had seemed to be well underway at the end of 2009 had fizzled and then vanished. In the reelection year, the recovery had resumed, but only in anemic fashion, and would eventually end with actual economic contraction by the final quarter of 2012.

That’s a recipe for a one-term presidency right there. Unless he was being graded on a curve…

It might seem odd now that Gallup pollsters were still asking about the former president nearly four years after he left office, but not in context. The incumbent’s argument was that Republicans deserved the blame for the financial panic of 2008 and what was then being called the Great Recession that followed. Obama, he said, was just cleaning up their mess.

Remember the car in the ditch? That was Obama’s well-tortured metaphor for how he said Republicans had wrecked the economy and were actively impeding his efforts to get the engine of American prosperity back on the road. So when Gallup asked in mid-June 2012 whether Obama or Bush deserved the blame, it was a good test of the Democrat’s chances in the fall.

Six months after Obama took office, Americans still overwhelmingly blamed Bush, with 80 percent of respondents saying the 43rd president deserved “a great deal or a moderate amount of blame,” compared with 32 percent for Obama. That may be understandable for a honeymoon period. But what happened next is more interesting.

As the years rolled on, the share of people blaming Obama climbed up to about 50 percent, but stayed there. The share blaming Bush slackened a bit but was still a very robust 68 percent as Republican Mitt Romney, a businessman promising to engineer an economic turnaround, started his attack on Obama’s record.

Team Obama had not been able to deliver the strong, stable growth they had promised, but performed a political miracle. They took credit for saving the country and the world from a crippling global depression but avoided the blame for a recovery that continued to disappoint. Those were the days when jobs could either be “saved or created,” a metric that constantly asked voters to imagine how much worse things might have been.

And it mostly worked. Despite widespread dissatisfaction with both the economy and with Obama’s signature health insurance program, he won a decisive victory over Romney. The campaign’s tagline spoke to its backward glance: “Osama bin Laden is dead, and General Motors is alive.”

So can Joe Biden be to inflation for Donald Trump and the GOP as Bush was to recession for Obama?

The news this week on inflation has been grim. Real grim. While the economy continues to grow at a pretty stout rate and unemployment remains at rock-bottom levels, the prices for almost everything continue to climb. Some level of inflation is a byproduct of economic growth, but when it exceeds the benefits of that growth, voters revolt.

And when Americans expect prices to rise, as they very much do right now, it tends to cause sellers to charge more and workers to seek more in payment for their services. Fear of inflation can cause inflation itself. What makes this New Year’s surge in prices so concerning is that the pace of price increases had been slackening for months, until September of 2024, when it ticked back up. January was the fourth straight month to see the rate of price increases climb. At 3 percent, we’re now getting outside of what’s considered tolerable in a growing economy.

Ulp.

The White House is going straight to the Obama playbook (and not just on dealing with unfriendly reporters). “The Biden administration left us with a mess,” said press secretary Karoline Leavitt, which is hardly a stretch when talking about an inflation report that only included 11 days under the new administration.

But the degree of difficulty goes up from here. Eight years ago, Trump took office after a long period of low, stable inflation rates. Obama had, understandably, feared how a robust recovery might cause inflation to rise and put the economy in a flat spin. That undid Lyndon Johnson’s presidency and hung a cloud over his immediate successors. As Biden can attest, once it sets in, inflation is very hard to get back out.

In 2017, Trump and Republicans in Congress were able to keep spending levels high and deliver a massive tax cut without an inflationary spike. Sloshing that much money into the economy might push prices up, but things stayed within the normal range. When the pandemic spending glut came, though — first under Trump and then under Biden — the dam broke and Americans experienced inflation rates unseen since the 1970s.

The fear throughout most of Biden’s term was that inflation, and the only tool available to combat it in the short term — the Federal Reserve jacking up interest rates and restricting the flow of capital — could kill off the postpandemic recovery. But the economy kept growing and the job market stayed strong as the rate of price increases crept down, down, down after the summer of 2022.

The Fed, which was last year ready to call inflation whipped, is now preparing to keep up the fight. Yes, because of the unhappy trend of the past four months, but also because of what’s coming. Trump and Republicans are looking to do what they did eight years ago and deliver a blast of deficit-financed tax cuts that will juice the economy. Add to that new tariffs coming down on imported steel and aluminum as well as a flurry of other levies, and you have a formula for sending prices skyward.

If the Fed responds as history suggests and prudence would demand, not only would it make borrowing for homes and cars harder for consumers, it would push up the cost of financing America’s voluminous debt. Another double whammy.

As much as Trump and the GOP imagine this moment as an opportunity to get right what they failed to achieve before, America 2025 is a very different place than America 2017.

The VoteCast data on the 2024 electorate from The Associated Press and the University of Chicago’s National Opinion Research Center gives pretty clear form to the Trump mandate.

The top four issues to voters were:

The economy and jobs [39%]: Harris 37% – Trump 61%
Immigration [21%]: Harris 10% – Trump 88%
Abortion [11%]: Harris 85% – Trump 15%
Health care [8%]: Harris 78% – Trump 19%

And it seems clear that when voters were talking about the economy, prices were the principal concern.

Thinking about voting in this election, how important to you was each of the following? High prices for gas, groceries and other goods:

Single most important factor [40%]: Harris 33% – Trump 65%
Important factor, but not the most important [47%]: Harris 53% – Trump 46%
A minor factor [9%]: Harris 82% – Trump 17%
Not a factor [3%]: Harris 84% – Trump 14%

For 87 percent of voters, inflation was a big deal, and very clearly they laid the problem at the feet of Biden and his administration, personified by then-Vice President Kamala Harris. In 2016, inflation wasn’t even on the radar screen.

It turned out that 2024 was not a “vibes” election, but a fundamentals election. And there is no problem more fundamental to persuadable voters, especially higher-propensity, older voters, than high prices.

Trump is beyond the reach of voters now, but the members of his party are not. And as Republicans in Congress hammer out a deal on taxes and spending, they are doing so in a very different climate from that of eight years ago. As GOPers consider how to get a deal done that can satisfy both swing-district moderates and fiscal hawks from deep-red districts, they do so with the knowledge that if they get the blame for pushing prices up, it will make what is already expected to be a rough midterm cycle into a bloodbath.

Which brings us back to where we began. Will the strong association of inflation with Biden be strong and durable enough to buy Republicans time to govern the way they want to?

Obama got away with it with Bush, but it still didn’t save Democrats in 2010 from the worst midterm shellacking in more than 70 years. Lawmakers fearing a similar fate this go-around may prove less willing to go along for the ride.

Holy croakano! We welcome your feedback, so please email us with your tips, corrections, reactions, amplifications, etc. at WHOLEHOGPOLITICS@GMAIL.COM. If you’d like to be considered for publication, please include your real name and hometown. If you don’t want your comments to be made public, please specify.

NUTRITIONAL INFORMATION

Trump Job Performance

Average Approval: 47.2%

Average Disapproval: 45.6%

Net Score: +1.6 points

Change from last week: -1.2 points

[Average includes: Marquette Law: 48% approve - 52% disapprove; Pew: 47% approve - 51% disapprove; TIPP: 46% approve - 41% disapprove; Emerson: 49% approve - 41% disapprove; Quinnipiac 46% approve - 43% disapprove]

Dems Favor Moderation

If you had to choose, would you rather see the Democratic Party become more liberal, stay the same or become more moderate? [Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents]

More liberal: 29%

Stay the same: 22%

More moderate: 45%

[Gallup poll, January 21-27, 2025]

ON THE SIDE: A CUT ABOVE

The Atlantic: “Yes, it would take a lot of work, a lot of research, and possibly travel to two other continents. But it could be done. At the right expense, with the most elegant and sturdy of Italian-milled fabrics, and with the greatest of Japanese tailors, a superior suit could be made for anyone, even for me. … Formal male fashion traces back to two personalities: Beau Brummell, the sharp-witted proto-dandy of the early 19th century … and Edward VIII, the Nazi admirer and short-term king better known as the Duke of Windsor. … The British suit, in all its City of London severity, morphed into different shapes around the world. … Meanwhile, in America, as always, we went to work. The suit became a uniform. … It came to be known as the ‘sack suit.’ In the 1950s, Brooks Brothers furthered this concept with an almost subversively casual look: a jacket with natural-width shoulders that hung straight from the body. … This, along with other American touches, such as denim, became the basis for Ivy-style clothes that the Japanese of the ’60s made into a national obsession.”

PRIME CUTS

'Cash is king' as GOP revs up for pricey 2026 cycle: Politico: “Tim Scott, chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said his team believes the battleground map will include six states — three offensive targets in Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire and three defensive ones in Maine, North Carolina and Ohio. … ‘Winning is expensive, so cash is king,’ Scott said. … ‘Just two of our Republican-held states will likely cost over $1 billion dollars combined, $400-600 million in Maine and $700 million in North Carolina.’ … He boasted to donors gathered at The Breakers hotel for the winter meeting that the committee raised $8.5 million in January, the most it has ever raised in a January of an off year. … The Senate map in 2026 is much tighter than it was in 2024. … Republicans reclaimed the majority, flipping four states. But it left the NRSC roughly $24 million in debt.”

‘Uncommitted’ movement under fire after Trump comments: NBC News: “Leaders of the pro-Palestinian movement that rallied opposition to Joe Biden and Kamala Harris in the 2024 election are standing by their strategy amid new criticism that they weakened the Democratic ticket after President Donald Trump said he wants to ‘take over’ the Gaza Strip. … Layla Elabed, a co-chair of the Uncommitted National Movement — which declined to endorse Harris, Trump or any candidate in the 2024 election — said she felt ‘sad, angry, and scared for our communities’ after the president’s Tuesday remarks, in which he also said Palestinians have ‘no alternative’ but to live elsewhere. But she maintained that both sides were to blame. … While it’s impossible to pin down exactly how much the movement affected the outcome of the 2024 election, there are signs that the vocal criticisms from some advocates had an impact at turning Democratic-leaning voters away from Harris.”

Polls: Democrats in despair: Washington Post: “Democratic officials are dispirited just like their base is despondent. To the extent they don’t seem to have much fight in them, that shouldn’t be too surprising; their voters don’t, either. … [According to a new CBS News poll], just 7 percent of Democrats picked ‘excited,’ and just 10 percent picked ‘motivated.’ Only 20 percent said they were even ‘interested.’ … By contrast, many more Democrats said they were ‘demoralized’ (42 percent) and ‘exhausted’ (47 percent). … An AP-NORC poll in December showed significantly more Democrats (72 percent) than Republicans (59 percent) said they felt the need to limit their political media consumption. A CNN poll showed large degrees of internal dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party, including 6 in 10 Democratic-leaning voters who said the party needs at least ‘major changes.’”

Robson launches Arizona campaign, but faces Freedom Caucus in primary: The Downballot: “Wealthy businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson launched her new campaign for governor of Arizona on Wednesday with a video whose sole topic is that she's Donald Trump's choice. But despite that ardent backing from MAGA's master, who pledged in December that Robson was “going to have my support,” the new candidate still has to hold off a hardline foe next year before she can focus on beating Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs. That obstacle is Rep. Andy Biggs. … One such Biggs fan is state Sen. Jake Hoffman, who said that Trump ‘should fire whichever executive consultant or staffer told him to endorse the UniParty McCain network candidate for Arizona governor’ late last year.”

SHORT ORDER

Minnesota Democratic Sen. Tina Smith won’t seek reelection, opening potential battleground — The Hill

Trump Department of Justice drops corruption charges against Eric Adams — New York Times

New Jersey Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill out to early lead in governor’s race — New Jersey Globe

After considering Tennessee gubernatorial bid, Hagerty will run for Senate reelection — The Hill

TABLE TALK

We’ll see what happens

“No. But [Vice President Vance] is very capable. You know I think you have a lot of very capable people. So far I think he’s doing a fantastic job. It’s too early.” — President Trump tells Fox News that he does not view Vance as his successor and declines to back him for the 2028 Republican nomination.

Just when Georgia Dems were ready to give up hope…

“Of course I’m considering all possibilities. No decisions have been made, but I would be telling a lie if I didn’t say I wasn’t considering it.” — Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) hints at a 2026 challenge to Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff (Ga.).

MAILBAG

“I think your [Feb. 7 newsletter] set out some really good facts about how people respond to survey questions regarding transgender issues. As a transgender woman, I understand that generally people when asked will not support the idea of puberty blockers and/or hormone treatment for young children, and I concur. What people tend to miss is we have always had a relatively small number of femboys and tomboys in most communities. Now if they will grow up to be trans women or men is what survey questions cannot answer. I just wish that the Democrats would stop pushing the extreme views like sex change operations on children and the Republicans would stop vilifying an entire population of people, many of which agree with a lot of other positions that the Republicans promote. Anyway, just my take. And thank you for presenting a data-driven opinion, not some world’s-on-fire view of a relevant social issue.” — Helen Villicamba, Fairfax, Virginia

Ms. Villicamba,

I was so pleased to get your note, because it confirms one of my dearest-held beliefs: The American voting public isn’t arrayed in battle, faction against faction. Instead, voters themselves are jumbles of competing and sometimes contradictory interests. There are pure single-issue voters, but certainly among the third or so of the electorate that is at least to some degree persuadable, it is not about good versus evil, but about choosing between competing goods.

Always, the important work here is to look at our fellow Americans not as members of a category but as individuals. The basis of the American creed is that all of us are created equal, not that we are created alike. Our politics tends to highlight differences toward the end of increasing strife and maintaining unity within parties and factions. But the other, more interesting differences get flattened out, squashed under the weight of tribalism.

It was very helpful to hear from you and several other transgender Americans about how they wrestle with the politics of a moment that touches them so personally. In every case, our correspondents displayed the thoughtfulness and perspective evident in your note despite what would be an easy opportunity to trade hate for hate.

It’s easy to believe that Americans are at war with each other, but even a brief inspection reveals that the truth is far more encouraging.

Thanks much,

You should email us! Write to WHOLEHOGPOLITICS@GMAIL.COM with your tips, kudos, criticisms, insights, rediscovered words, wonderful names, recipes, and, always, good jokes. Please include your real name—at least first and last—and hometown. Make sure to let us know in the email if you want to keep your submission private. My colleague, the lowkey romantic Nate Moore, and I will look for your emails and then share the most interesting ones and my responses here. Clickety clack!

FOR DESSERT

Tree Enterprise: New York Times: “For years, officials in the Czech Republic had pushed a dam project to protect a river south of Prague. … In the meantime, a group of chisel-toothed mammals — renowned for their engineering skills and work ethic, and unencumbered by bureaucracy — decided to take on the task. The beavers of Prague simply built dams themselves. … The rodents’ fast work saved the local authorities some 1.2 million euros. … ‘Nature took its course,’ Bohumil Fišer, the head of the Brdy Protected Landscape Area, where the revitalization project was planned, said in the statement. The beavers, he added, had created the ideal environmental conditions ‘practically overnight.’ … The new wetland created by the dams covers nearly five acres, the conservation group said. It is twice as large as the area that the humans had planned, Agence France-Presse reported. ‘It’s full service,’ Mr. Fišer told A.F.P.”

Chris Stirewalt is the politics editor for The Hill and NewsNation, the host of "The Hill Sunday" on NewsNation and The CW, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and the author of books on politics and the media. Nate Moore contributed to this report.

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