What’s realistic for foreign policy under Trump 2.0

President-elect Donald Trump has yet to be sworn in, yet he is already setting the tone for a drastic shift in foreign policy — one with significant implications for friends and enemies alike.

Indeed, Trump’s calls to annex or purchase Greenland and the Panama Canal, absorb Canada as the 51st state, and rename the Gulf of Mexico belies a much more muscular, albeit more isolated, United States.

As Trump sees it, the U.S. should anchor its foreign policy not on alliances or free trade policies, but rather on what is solely in the interests of the U.S., even if it means economic or military coercion aimed at our allies.

This is a considerable departure from the Biden-Harris administration’s foreign policy. Too often, President Biden’s dithering and predictable foreign policy did little to deter America’s adversaries, who rarely believed Biden’s threats. Trump’s unpredictability, willingness to use the American military, and disdain for traditional alliances may constrain America’s enemies while pushing our allies to do more themselves.

Of course, as with many things Trump says, it is often more important to look beneath the surface rather than take it literally.

In this case, whether or not he actually intends to add Canada as the 51st state or send troops to subdue Panama and Greenland is less relevant than what his threats infer about the new direction he intends for America’s foreign policy.

To that end, it is clear that Trump foresees a more forceful U.S., with a focus on the Western Hemisphere and ensuring that neither Russia nor China encroach on America’s near-abroad.

Moreover, in keeping with his long-standing disdain for international organizations and proclivity for breaking traditional norms, Trump will likely take more unilateral actions to defend U.S. interests, rather than working with allies to advance common goals.

To his credit, during Trump’s first term, breaking from established norms resulted in some genuine successes, such as the Abraham Accords and spurring NATO countries to spend more on defense.

However, the world today is radically different than it was eight years ago, and Trump’s new foreign policy is likely to have both legitimate benefits as well as potential risks.

America’s three biggest foreign policy challenges — the Russia-Ukraine, Taiwan-China, and Israel-Iran conflicts — are significantly more volatile, as is the situation in Venezuela.

Right from the start, Trump’s preference for a Western Hemisphere free from outside influence will be tested in Venezuela, where dictator Nicolas Maduro was just sworn in for a third term after an election that many countries — including the U.S. — deem fraudulent.

The opposition leader, Maria Corina Machado was briefly detained during a protest against Maduro’s inauguration. The internationally-recognized winner of the election, Edmundo Gonzalez remains exiled due to fear of arrest.

An ally of Russia and China, Maduro’s Venezuela is also a key source of illegal migrants crossing the U.S. border. This presents Trump’s foreign policy with a concrete test. Will he stand for freedom and commit to pushing Russia and China out of what he considers America’s backyard?

Or will Trump make a deal with Maduro to keep Venezuelan oil on the market and fulfill a campaign promise to keep prices low?

In Ukraine, Trump has made no secret of his goal to end the war, as he does not perceive it to be within America’s sphere of interests. And while ending the war is in everyone’s interest, forcing a ceasefire on Ukraine that is advantageous to Russia's Vladimir Putin does little to make the world safer or even forestall a possible Russian invasion of a NATO country.

At the same time, how Trump handles China’s designs on Taiwan remains contradictory, reflecting his view of foreign policy as transactional in nature.

While clearly opposed to China’s rise and cognizant of the threat Beijing poses, Trump has previously suggested that Taiwan needs to pay the U.S. for its defense.

Given Taiwan’s importance to American technological superiority — and the China hawks Trump appointed to his cabinet — it stands to reason that the U.S. will take a much more hostile approach to China, even if a military commitment to defend Taiwan is absent.

Perhaps the biggest difference in American foreign policy under Trump will be seen in the Middle East.

Trump’s attitudes toward Iran are a welcome departure from the appeasement and diplomacy-at-all-costs approach of former President Obama and current President Biden.

In that same vein, Trump’s preference for strong allies likely means he will look more favorably on Israel, which has decimated Iranian proxies in Lebanon and Gaza, as well as Iran’s own air defense.

Unlike defending Ukraine, Trump sees preventing Iran’s development of nuclear weapons to be squarely within American interests.

His threats of using the military — or supporting an Israeli strike — to prevent a nuclear Iran are significantly more credible than Biden’s, and will likely force Iran to be more pliant.

Similarly, a return to strong sanction enforcement on Iranian oil exports will drastically weaken the regime and cripple its ability to support terrorist proxies.

Further, Trump’s pledge that “all hell will break out” if Hamas does not release the remaining Israeli hostages stands in stark contrast to President Biden, who has vacillated between soft condemnations of Hamas, and support and then criticism of Israel.

An American foreign policy in the Middle East that elevates realpolitik over lecturing countries on human rights may also make a deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel more likely.

Taken together, American foreign policy in Trump’s second term figures to be defined by a clear delineation of what is in American interests and what is not, with a robust defense of the former and largely ignoring the latter.

Put another way, Trump’s focus on America’s preeminent role in the Western Hemisphere is reminiscent of the great power competitions of centuries past, as well as a modern take on the Monroe Doctrine, with defined spheres of influence.

Conversely, by prioritizing American interests over alliances, Trump may inadvertently embolden American enemies to carve their own spheres of influence, by force if necessary.

How this plays out remains to be seen. But given the failures of the last four years, it is worth trying something new, no matter how unorthodox it may seem.

Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant and the founder and partner at Schoen Cooperman Research. Saul Mangel is vice president at Schoen Cooperman Research.

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