What Trump’s aid freeze means for Ukraine war

President Trump’s freeze on U.S. aid going to Ukraine threatens to create severe problems for Kyiv in its war against Russia, leaving the country more vulnerable to aerial attacks on population centers and key infrastructure.

Experts predict the pause could be felt within a matter of weeks, depending on its scope.

“In terms of the immediate battlefield effect, this is bad,” said George Barros, an expert on the Ukraine-Russia conflict for the Institute for the Study of War.

Barros said the freeze will have “a significant effect” that will become more apparent should the suspension stretch into summer, when ammunition supplies are likely to dwindle. But the biggest gap will be felt when the Ukrainians run low on U.S.-made Patriot interceptors and other air defenses, which could happen within weeks.

“There are certain niche systems and capabilities that the United States provides Ukraine that the Ukrainians do not have an analogue for, and neither do the Europeans, particularly air defense interceptors,” he said.

Retired Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery, a senior fellow with the Washington-based think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said there is simply no European substitute for U.S. air defense munitions such as Patriot interceptors and Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles — used to defend from incoming Kremlin drone and missile attacks on cities. Nor is there an easy replacement for long-range strike weapons such as HIMARS and ATACMS, which Ukrainian troops have used to strike targets just over the border in Russia.

“Their critical infrastructure is getting hammered by cruise and ballistic missiles,” Montgomery said. “Without these weapons systems, more Russian stuff hits, more infrastructure is damaged. Without the long-range strike, Russia can bring contact to the enemy quicker with less risk. This [freeze] makes things worse.”

Jennifer Kavanagh, senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, said once air defenses are gutted, "it will force Ukraine to make choices. Do they defend the power station? Or do they defend their F-16 center on the ground? ... That's where the pinch will be felt first.”

Trump on Monday directed his administration to “pause” all military aid to Ukraine following a contentious Oval Office meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky last week. Trump has been ramping up pressure on Kyiv to sign a critical minerals deal to repay U.S. assistance and agree to major concessions toward a peace deal with Russia.

“The President has been clear that he is focused on peace. We need our partners to be committed to that goal as well,” a White House official said in a statement. “We are pausing and reviewing our aid to ensure that it is contributing to a solution.”

Senate Republicans, who are generally hawkish on Ukraine, on Tuesday defended Trump's move as a negotiating tactic, predicting it wouldn't last long.

But the news has still been met with despair in Ukraine, with parliament member Oleksiy Goncharenko telling Sky News that “thousands of people will die” due to the Trump’s “catastrophic” choice.

“The mood in Ukraine is that of betrayal. The mood is that of hopelessness,” Barros said. “Telling them, ‘Congratulations, you're not getting any more weapons,’ it's a very poor incentive to actually try to increase and boost recruitment numbers.”

Zelensky has quickly sought to remedy the situation, on Tuesday saying Ukraine is “ready to come to the negotiating table as soon as possible” to sign the minerals deal and bring a peace deal closer.

“None of us wants an endless war,” Zelensky said in a statement that did not comment directly on the aid pause. "Nobody wants peace more than Ukrainians. My team and I stand ready to work under President Trump's strong leadership to get a peace that lasts.”

It's unclear what lethal aid earmarked for Ukraine will be affected by the freeze, given that there has been no official statement from the administration on how far the pause will extend and what it will touch.

Trump took office with nearly $4 billion in drawdown authority for Ukraine available from previously approved congressional funding, which could now go unused. And he could move to scrap contracts Ukraine has signed with U.S. defense firms – meant to guarantee a steady flow of newly produced arms into the country for at least the next several years.

Trump could also withhold training for Ukrainians on weapons maintenance, providing spare parts, or allowing European allies to transfer crucial material such as F-16 fighter jet parts. Ukraine also partners with the U.S. for intelligence and relies on Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite network for communication and internet connectivity.

The freeze could not come at a better time for Russia, which over the past six months has seen its military tempo decreasing as it has rapidly burned through troops and ammunition, allowing the Ukrainians to increasingly engage in counterattacks in southeastern parts of the country.

With these trends, the Kremlin would likely have to face a series of very difficult decisions in how it would resource the war in the coming year, experts say, making it an ideal time to press Russia for hard concessions.

With the American aid paused, however, experts said they wouldn't be surprised if the Russians started intensifying their air campaign to try to eliminate what remaining air defense interceptors the Ukrainians have.

“Depending on the intensity of the air campaign, they could run out of interceptors within a matter of days, if not weeks,” Barros said of Ukraine. Once that happens, Moscow “can really unleash fury.”

That has put the spotlight on Europe, which has rallied in support of Ukraine in recent days, with leaders meeting over the weekend to chart a path forward without the U.S. But Europe’s ability to fill the gap is limited by various factors, including domestic politics.

Branislav Slantchev, a political science professor at the University of California, San Diego who studies the war, said despite the supportive rhetoric coming from Europe, leaders will struggle to sell the public on major boosts to defense spending if it requires big sacrifices such as cuts to the social safety net.

“I'm not sure that the Europeans can fill the gap quickly enough, even if they had the political will to do so. Now, they're saying all the right things, but their political reality in Europe is quite difficult,” he said.

Ukraine may be able to sustain its current level of resistance for three to six months, Slantchev said, but will eventually have to make painful battlefield decisions if Trump sticks with the freeze.

“Essentially, they will begin to lose territory, because they will have to essentially withdraw to more defensible positions. They will have to rearrange how they do this. It's going to be a lot harder for them,” he said.

Trump has proven willing to quickly shift positions in foreign relations as negotiations play out, and Slantchev said the aid suspension may be an attempt to see how far he can push Ukraine toward Russia’s negotiating positions.

“This is basically typical Trumpian moves to essentially force Ukraine to show ... the absolute maximum they can concede, and then take this to the Russians and see if it will work,” he said. “My belief is that it will not work, and then all bets are off.”

Colin Meyn contributed.

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