Voters in Wisconsin and Florida are set to decide on several key statewide and congressional races that are shaping up to be the first critical bellwethers of the national mood since the 2024 election.
In the Badger State, voters will be weighing in on a high-stakes race between liberal candidate Susan Crawford and conservative candidate Brad Schimel for an open seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court, which will determine its partisan tilt.
Voters also will weigh in on a state superintendent race between incumbent Jill Underly and challenger Brittany Kinser in addition to a ballot measure on voter ID.
In the Sunshine State, voters in the 1st and 6th congressional districts will choose candidates to replace former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) and White House national security adviser Michael Waltz, respectively, in the House. The Waltz district race, in particular, has put Republicans on edge amid signs it could be closer than originally anticipated.
Here’s what to watch for:
Do Wisconsin voters deliver a blow to Musk?
The Wisconsin judicial race, which has already smashed fundraising records, will offer the first test of Trump ally Elon Musk’s political and financial influence.
Musk has poured significant resources to support Schimel in the open Wisconsin Supreme Court race.
At least $12.2 million in the race has come from his America PAC, according to the latest campaign filing available Monday morning. Building America’s Future, a group Musk has contributed to in the past, has also spent $4.7 million in the race to back Schimel.
Musk also traveled to Wisconsin on Sunday to hand out two $1 million checks to Wisconsin voters.
President Trump has waded into the race to support Schimel, but it’s Musk who has been the most prominently involved in the last stretch of the race before the election. Musk has also contributed tens of thousands of dollars in the two Florida elections.
At the same time, the Crawford campaign and Wisconsin Democrats have used anger against Musk as a way to gin up their base in the off-year spring election.
Do Democrats make inroads in a deep-red Florida district?
All eyes are on Florida’s 6th Congressional District as Democrats hope to overperform in the deep-red district.
Trump and Waltz won the district by more than 30 points, but the Republican candidate Randy Fine has lagged behind Democratic candidate Josh Weil in fundraising and some polling. Weil has raised $10 million during the campaign, while Fine has brought in less than a million. An internal poll from the Republican firm Fabrizio Ward showed Weil with only a 3-point lead over Fine — a five-alarm fire for Republicans in such a conservative district.
Republicans maintain the seat will stay red, and many Democrats insist the race is about narrowing the margins, but the race has drawn attention from national Republicans and Democrats.
For Democrats, a single-digit margin between the two candidates would be seen as a huge victory. The party likely would tout such a result as a clear referendum on Trump’s first few months in office, though some Republicans have argued a disappointing result would be more a result of Fine’s weaknesses as a candidate.
Does GOP clinch win in superintendent race?
One statewide race in Wisconsin that hasn’t received as much national attention but is also being watched is the race for superintendent of public instruction between Underly and Kinser.
Underly, who succeeded Gov. Tony Evers (D) as superintendent in 2021, ...
