What part of Putin's capitulation demands don't you understand?
Russian President Vladimir Putin made his duplicitous position crystal clear on this week when he said he was “willing to negotiate with the United States about the war in Ukraine" but kept up his insistence about Ukraine's full capitulation.
That same day, during a Russian Security Council meeting alongside Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov he “reiterated Russia's willingness to engage in peace negotiations with the U.S.;” however, but added that any peace settlement should "eliminate the root causes" of the war in Ukraine.
What are these "root causes"? Lavrov had described them last month as NATO's "aggressive absorption" of Eastern Europe — supposedly in violation of its promises — and alleged Ukrainian government hostility toward ethnic Russians, their culture, their media and their language.
But let's be real here — NATO had nothing to do with this. Mikhail Gorbachev, the late former leader of the Soviet Union, acknowledged there had been no promises not to enlarge NATO at the end of the Cold War. Moreover, as Putin’s war ground to a standoff, Moscow pulled troops and equipment off the border of Finland and out of Kaliningrad to fight in Ukraine. If he is afraid of a NATO invasion either now or in the near future, that's a very funny way to show it.
But there is more. As the Atlantic Council has reported, “Ever since the abortive peace talks of spring 2022 … Russia has insisted that any peace deal must include territorial concessions from Kyiv along with Ukrainian neutrality and the country’s comprehensive demilitarization.” Those territorial concessions include Crimea — illegally annexed by Russia in 2014 — and the partially occupied Ukrainian provinces of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, which were illegally annexed in 2022.
Other non-negotiable demands include Ukraine officially “giving up its pursuit of NATO membership" and accepting "extensive limitations on the size of its armed forces and on the kinds of weapons systems it is allowed to possess.”
No mention of European peacekeeping forces or the return of the Kursk Oblast; however, they would likely reject the former and demand the latter.
Putin’s Presidential advisor Nikolai Patrushev left no doubt about his plans for Ukraine when he said, “It can’t be ruled out that Ukraine will cease to exist at all in the coming year.”
As Secretary of State Marco Rubio described in his Senate confirmation hearing: “Putin’s goal is to have maximum leverage to basically impose neutrality on Ukraine, refit and then come back and do it again in four to five years.”
So what part of Putin’s capitulation demands does the West not understand? What part of Russia’s complete genocide of Ukraine is not clear? Where do you begin to negotiate with this frame of mind?
You do not — and you make it clear to Putin that he will either leave Ukraine on his own accord or be removed.
Other than the occupation of 18 percent of Ukraine and a nuclear arsenal, Putin has little leverage. His military has been decimated, sustaining 823,980 casualties in three years. He has been forced to turn to Iran, North Korea, and Chechnya for ammunition, weapons and soldiers. His economy is on the brink of collapse, and Russian influence is waning with the fall of the Bashar Assad regime in Syria.
On Tuesday President Trump said Putin was losing in Ukraine, commenting that “he isn’t doing so well,” and that he was “grinding it out.” He added, “Most people thought that war would have been over in about one week and now you are into three years.”
Absent was the Bidenesque fear of Putin’s evergreen nuclear bluffing. In its place a president confident he already holds the winning hand in Ukraine. He drove that point home, mocking Putin’s wartime leadership by remarking, “That’s no way to run a country.”
So why fold that hand now?
On Tuesday, Trump threatened to impose "high levels" of tariffs and sanctions against Russia if there is no deal to end the war in Ukraine. He told Putin “it was time to settle his ridiculous War," adding "We can do it the easy way, or the hard way — and the easy way is always better… It’s time to make a deal. No more lives should be lost!!!"
Last week, National Security Advisor Michael Waltz said that Trump was “ready to lift restrictions on the supply of long-range weapons to Ukraine to force Putin to sit down at the negotiating table.”
On Wednesday, Trump gave his special envoy to Ukraine and Russia — retired Army Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg — a 100-day deadline to end the conflict.
The “root cause” of the war in Ukraine is Putin. He has no winning hand and should not be extended a lifeline or any face-saving measures. Trump’s message to Putin should be to leave Ukraine or risk losing your army and your country.
Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as an Army military intelligence officer. Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy.
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