What I would tell Elon Musk to get DOGE back on track

I have never met Elon Musk and may not ever meet him. But if I did, I would reaffirm the unprecedented opportunity the Department of Government Efficiency has to make America great.

I would also warn him that, on its current trajectory, it will fail.

How do I know? Over the years I have worked with and advised a number of secretaries of Defense and our most senior military officers here and abroad on these and other matters.

Why is DOGE headed for failure? First, the optic of Musk’s chainsaw image and the glee with which he’s firing people will generate fierce resentment and anger among the many who will be jobless and the public who will come to despise his arrogance. This will greatly damage the president’s standing.

Second, ridiculing and defaming the government as rife with fraud, abuse, waste and incompetence destroys any incentive for the public to serve in such an organization. No one is interested in joining a failed enterprise even if Musk "fixes" it. I’d tell him he’s eviscerating morale.

Third, the most valuable resource is people; those serving in the government and working in the public. They can help if Musk lets them. People are motivated by positive and not negative and cynical leadership.

Why not ask for their help? He can start by using some of the savings from budget cuts to help dismissed government workers transition to new work. However, unemployment insurance payments will erode those savings.

An appropriate analogy is war. Would you prefer to serve under a general who says you must die for your country or the general who says your aim is to make the other guy die for his? The answer is clear.

Musk might consider a new direction for DOGE that starts with the first principles of analysis and leadership beginning with Congress. Only Congress can appropriate money.

Here the problem is blindingly obvious. This year's budget is $7 trillion; revenues are $5 trillion. Unless DOGE works closely with Congress, that gap will never be closed.

I’d urge him to consider this story. As someone who worked on the margins with the Reagan-era Packard Commission on Department of Defense Acquisition Reform, the CEO of a major U.S. defense company asked my help in applying the findings to his business. The company made everything from bullets to space satellites and was highly representative of the weapons being acquired.

About 100 senior employees volunteered to help. We discovered that on contracts other than those dealing with the highest risk technology, by taking smart and commonsense actions on the production line, savings of 30 percent could be achieved. None required regulatory changes.

The CEO and board were shocked, awed and impressed by these findings. The data developed was unimpeachable. The CEO decided that the proposed savings of about 15 percent would be believable and credible even though more could be had.

Government is not business. However, substantial savings can be achieved if government workers are asked for ideas.

Regarding the Department of Defense, Musk might also consider this: He cannot just cut. He needs to start with the strategy. The secretary of Defense says the strategy is to deter, fight and win. But what have we deterred in reality?

Russia has twice invaded Ukraine. China has not restrained from building a near-peer army or expanding its influence. The Houthis have closed off the Red Sea to substantial amounts of shipping. A thermonuclear war cannot be fought or won. And what is the last real war we won? You have to be over 80 to recall that.

He should also consider that federal and Defense acquisition regulations are huge obstacles to enhancing efficiency and must be dramatically modernized and updated for the 21st century.

Additionally, the organization and procedures of the Pentagon must be fully understood. If Musk and his team are not intimately informed on the central decision-making process or have not met with a single former Pentagon controller who has the financial keys to the kingdom, they are flying blind without a chart, compass or radar.

Last, no matter how bright Musk's team is, so was McNamara's Whiz Kids. And they helped lose the Vietnam War.

Musk has perhaps the last chance to reform the government. Continuing to delight in how many people and how quickly he can cut and amputate makes him the general who asks his men to die for their country. Wars are not won that way.

I hope Musk listens so DOGE can make America better.

Harlan Ullman Ph.D. has been a long-term advisor to heads of governments, senior civilian and military officials and parliaments and NATO. A Vietnam Swift Boat commander with over 150 combat missions and operational patrols, he and David Richards are authors of the forthcoming book, “The Arc of Failure: Can Decisive Strategic Thinking Transform a Dangerous World.”

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