Last month, the U.S. imposed a 25 percent tariff on Venezuelan oil — a direct response to Nicolás Maduro’s refusal to take back thousands of deported Venezuelan migrants, including known members of the violent Tren de Aragua gang.
It was also a response to years of deliberate efforts by the Maduro regime to dismantle democratic institutions, undermine electoral legitimacy, cripple the economy through mismanagement, and enrich insiders through corruption — actions that have fueled the largest displacement crisis in the Western Hemisphere.
More than 7.7 million Venezuelans have fled the country, destabilizing an entire region and placing immense pressure on neighboring states and humanitarian systems.
At first glance, the new U.S. tariff may look like just another foreign policy move. But this one cuts deeper. It strikes at oil, the Maduro regime’s only remaining “legitimate” source of hard currency. And if it holds, the scaffolding upon which the regime has relied for years will start to buckle.
Even more striking is the language tucked into the measure: the 25 percent tariff isn’t limited to Venezuela alone. It may apply to any country that continues to import Venezuelan oil — whether directly or through intermediaries. That includes China and India, two of Venezuela’s largest buyers. If enforced, this would amount to a global quarantine of Venezuelan oil.
Few countries will risk a 25 percent tariff on their exports to the United States just to maintain access to cheap crude. In effect, the U.S. is treating Venezuelan oil like a contagion — and daring others to touch it.
Some in the Venezuelan opposition may see this as their latest chance to bring down the regime. But they always think the next thing will do it. I doubt it.
Oil isn’t the only lifeline keeping the regime alive. Drug trafficking and illicit trade now produce for it as much funding if not more. So the tariff may turn up the heat, but it won’t touch those illicit revenue streams, nor will it disrupt the operations that sustain them.
What we’re likely to see instead is a rapid tightening of cash. Payments to civil servants, retirees and the military could stall. Inflation will spike. Fuel, medicine and essentials will become even more scarce. Paranoia may take hold inside parts of the regime as whispers turn to plots — but there are always plots. Public frustration will boil over again.
Within months, the pressure could hit a breaking point. The regime will scramble for cash. Factions may splinter. Trust evaporates. Desperation takes over. Blackouts, food riots and deeper state dysfunction could follow. The regime might fall — but more likely, it will find a way to survive. It always has.
There’s a road map full of warning signs — a kind of weather gauge for a troubled regime. Repression will intensify. They will squeeze the last value from what remains — rushing gold sales, destroying the environment, especially in the Amazon basin.
If things get worse, Maduro will reach for lifelines — Moscow, Tehran and Beijing. But even his allies are losing interest in underwriting ...
