Trump’s Putin gambit: How to hammer Moscow with sanctions that bite

President Trump has never been shy with words. Yet until now, he has tiptoed around Russian President Vladimir Putin with puzzling restraint. That ended with his latest salvo on Truth Social: a vow to unleash “large-scale banking sanctions, sanctions, and tariffs on Russia until a ceasefire and final settlement agreement on peace is reached."

It is a seismic jolt to the Ukraine peace talks — the first time Trump has brandished the threat of American economic might to force Putin’s hand.

This is the right play. The test is whether Trump will swing the hammer with the precision it demands.

Sanctions do not work unless they break something vital. The Biden administration learned this lesson the hard way after Russia’s expanded invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Biden’s sanctions were expansive, targeting Moscow’s financial networks, its ghost tankers, and its domestic industry, but they dribbled out too slowly over three years. They stung but never crippled Putin’s war machine to the breaking point.

Trump’s escalation should instead be a sledgehammer, applying an unbearable blow that will leave Moscow desperate for the relief of peace.

Surprisingly, Trump’s statement conspicuously omitted energy, the one pressure point that could push Putin over the financial edge. Without a dramatic change in oil and gas sanctions, Moscow can keep bankrolling its war. If Trump truly wants to cripple Putin and force him to negotiate, the centerpiece of his strategy must be to end a Biden-era loophole in energy sanctions.

Trump can start by gutting Russia’s oil lifelines. The Biden-era “price cap” on Russian crude, pegged at $60 per barrel, was an attempt to limit the Kremlin’s oil revenue. Limited enforcement and gaping loopholes — such as shipping crude to India before selling it back over to Europeans and Americans — left Putin with too much energy revenue.

If he means business, Trump should slash the Biden-era cap to just $35 — or maybe lower — then lock it down tight.

Energy dollars fuel Russia’s aggression. Choke them off, and Putin’s war machine sputters.

Next, turn the screws on Europe. Trump loves thumping the Europeans for slacking on defense spending. Now he can force them to end their complicity in funding Putin’s war.

Last year, Europe spent more on Russian oil and gas than it did on aid to Ukraine, according to recent financial data — a striking irony. Trump must demand real economic consequences for countries that prop up Moscow’s war economy by purchasing its energy. His bully pulpit can help break Europe’s addiction to Russian oil and gas, pushing allies to ditch Moscow and lean on U.S. alternatives. It’s not just about economic competition — it’s about shutting down Putin’s financial arteries.

Finally, Trump should hit Russia’s industrial underbelly with secondary sanctions on the banks and transhippers that enable “shadow trades.” Largely originating in the U.S. and shipped via resellers from Europe and Asia, these constitute the illicit exports of the high-end tools, electronics and industrial hardware that Russia needs to keep its military factories humming. Ending these trades would be a major blow — one that Putin would feel immediately.

And what about tariffs? Higher tariffs on Russian goods may sound tough, but in reality, it would be small potatoes. U.S.-Russia trade in 2024 amounted to a mere $3.5 billion — a rounding error in global trade. Tariffs won’t starve the Kremlin war machine the way an ironclad oil price-cap would, or a crackdown on shadow trades. If Trump wants to force Putin to bend, he must hit where it hurts most.

Together, these steps would form a vise squeezing Russia's resources for war and shutting down its enablers. Trump’s statement is a bold gambit, but if he hesitates, the Kremlin will immediately call the bluff. Press forward, and Trump can accomplish what Biden couldn’t — force Moscow to halt its invasion on terms beneficial to the U.S.

Trump now has a chance to finish the job — no half-measures, no retreat.

Peter Doran is an adjunct senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

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