Trump’s hush money case seems like small potatoes. It’s not
Amazingly, we are still hearing that the indictments of Donald Trump in Manhattan are the least important of the four sets of charges against the former president. Okay, in some ways they are. They don’t involve the insurrection, the attempt to steal the 2020 election or the theft of hundreds of classified documents.
But in other key ways, the Manhattan trial starting April 15 is the most important: Trump’s actions may have altered the outcome of the 2016 election; it may be the only trial reaching completion before November; these offenses cannot be pardoned by Trump or another Republican president; and a conviction in Manhattan could have a substantial impact on the 2024 election.
This case is not, at its core, about hush money payments to an adult film actress. Those are the elemental facts, but they are not the essence of the charges. The Manhattan indictments revolve around Trump’s effort to keep the salacious story from damaging his electoral chances in the 2016 campaign’s final days, in violation of tax and campaign finance laws.
Let’s review. In October 2016, Trump was reeling from the release of the devastating “Access Hollywood” tape, where he boasted about grabbing women between their legs because, in his words, “when you’re a star, they let you do it.” The country was outraged. His support was crumbling. Key Republican elected officials announced they wouldn’t support him.
But on the very same day the video became public, WikiLeaks released a huge tranche of emails connected to Hillary Clinton. The country’s attention was drawn away from the Trump tape as the press focused relentlessly on the Clinton team emails, the disclosure of which was a central part of Russia’s interference in the 2016 election.
Still, the anger over the “Access Hollywood” tape remained a potential threat to the Trump campaign. All the while, Stephanie Clifford — aka Stormy Daniels — with whom Trump had an extramarital affair in 2006, had begun to feel threats to her safety and that of her child. “Going public, she came to believe, would protect her and her family,” wrote Olivia Nuzzi in a profile of Daniels. “At least if something tragic happened — a single-car crash, an ‘overdose,’ a gas-leak explosion — there would be a record of her accusations. There would be cause for suspicion.”
Daniels had intended to come forward and reveal her affair with Trump in the hope that publicity would serve as a means of protection. But instead of a highly public revelation, she accepted a $130,000 payment and agreed to remain silent in the belief that it would protect her family.
The money was wired to Daniels’s attorney on Oct. 27 and the non-disclosure agreement was signed the next day — the same day that FBI Director James Comey wrote his second letter about Hillary Clinton’s emails, which had such devastating consequences for her campaign.
Of course we’ll never know, but given that the election was less than two weeks away and people still recalled what Trump said about assaulting women, another display of infidelity — this time with a porn star mere months after his son Barron was born — might have pushed enough voters over to Clinton to have changed the election result.
So these payments weren’t just an effort to keep an affair quiet, they were designed to keep negative information out of the press in the few days before the election. When Trump conspired with Michael Cohen to cook the books, violate the New York tax code and break campaign finance laws, the bookkeeping misdemeanors became felony charges under New York law.
The Manhattan indictments are also critically important because they may be the only ones going ahead before the election. The classified documents case in Florida has been delayed by a Trump-appointed judge. The charges in Georgia have been slowed by a relationship between District Attorney Fani Willis and a now-former member of the prosecutorial team. And the main federal indictments about the attempted theft of the election are on hold as the Supreme Court considers Trump’s expansive claims of presidential immunity.
If Trump is convicted in this case before the election, he or another Republican president will not be able to pardon him. The Manhattan indictments are state charges, and the presidential pardon power does not reach them. Moreover, regardless of what happens in the election or the three other criminal cases, a conviction in New York would meet the constitutional standard of high crimes and misdemeanors for impeachment.
Finally, the indictments in Manhattan are significant because sizable numbers of Americans, including Trump supporters, say they will not vote for him if he is convicted of a crime. Since these charges look like the only chance of a conviction before November, they could potentially lose Trump enough support to reelect Biden.
Yes, the news media has been rightfully consumed with the Supreme Court review of the question of criminal immunity for Trump, the oddly public hearings about Fani Willis’s relationship and the New York business fraud case. But the preliminaries end and the real action starts on April 15, when the Manhattan trial begins.
Even though the case has been brushed aside repeatedly by commentators, it is all about Trump’s first attempt to illegally interfere with and potentially steal an election. The country should pay much closer attention, because a conviction in Manhattan could change the course of this fall’s balloting and, potentially, the future of our nation.
Jason Steinbaum is president of the Chesterbrook Group and is an adjunct professor at the American University School of Public Affairs. He worked on Capitol Hill for more than 30 years.
Date: | |
Tag: | Donald Trump |
Topics
Filter
-
Former Trump lawyer: Trump 'can't take the stand' in hush money case
Former Trump White House attorney Ty Cobb joins Meet the Press NOW as the Supreme Court weighs former President Trump’s immunity claim and prosecutors in the former president’s criminal case in Manhattan call two new witnesses to the stand.NBC News - Politics - Donald Trump -
Comparing Donald Trump's hush money trial to John Edwards, Bill Clinton cases
Donald Trump's hush money trial is underway, and it's drawing attention to past high-profile litigation involving political stars and salacious affair allegations.ABC News - Top stories - Donald Trump -
Trump lawyer on hush money case: 'I don’t have hopes really that high'
Alina Habba, an attorney for former President Trump, signaled she does not have high hopes for the former president’s success in the New York hush money trial. “But I don't have hopes really that high at this moment that the New York courts will ...The Hill - Politics - Donald Trump -
Trump trial: Defense attorneys begin cross-examination of David Pecker
The New York criminal trial of Donald Trump resumed with testimony from former National Enquirer publisher David Pecker.CNBC - Business - Donald Trump -
In Trump immunity case, Supreme Court seems open to some protection
The Supreme Court convened to consider whether former President Donald Trump is entitled to broad immunity from criminal charges in the 2020 election case.CBS News - Politics - Donald Trump -
Justices Seemed Ready to Limit Election Case Against Trump
Also, Harvey Weinstein’s New York conviction was overturned.The New York Times - Top stories - Donald Trump -
In Trump immunity case, Supreme Court seems open to some protection
The Supreme Court convened to consider whether former President Donald Trump is entitled to broad immunity from criminal charges in the 2020 election case.CBS News - Politics - Donald Trump -
Testimony ends for the day in Trump hush money trial
The prosecution continued to question the ex-publisher of the National Enquirer David Pecker as Donald Trump sat in a New York courtroom Thursday for his criminal hush money trial.CNN - Top stories - Donald Trump -
Testimony resumes in Trump "hush money" trial
Former National Enquirer publisher David Pecker will be back on the stand Thursday in Donald Trump's New York criminal trial. The judge in the case has yet to decide if the former president will be held in contempt for violating a gag order. ...CBS News - Top stories - Donald Trump -
New testimony in Trump "hush money" trial
Testimony continued Thursday in former President Donald Trump's criminal "hush money" trial. David Pecker, the former publisher of the National Enquirer, detailed alleged efforts to suppress stories involving adult film star Stormy Daniels. CBS ...CBS News - Top stories - Donald Trump
More from The Hill
-
Riot police drag away protesters at University of Texas as Gaza tensions flare
State troopers in riot gear moved on Monday afternoon to clear out students attempting to occupy a quad at the University of Texas at Austin. Dozens of protesters were arrested on site, escalating tensions that began on Wednesday when the ...The Hill - Politics -
Jill Stein accuses police of assaulting her at protest
Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein on Sunday alleged police assaulted her and other demonstrators shortly before being arrested at a pro-Palestinian protest on the campus of Washington University in St. Louis. “Basically, the police ...The Hill - Politics -
US finds Israeli military units violated human rights
Welcome to The Hill's Defense & NatSec newsletter {beacon} Defense &National Security Defense &National Security The Big Story US finds Israeli military units violated human rights The State Department has determined that at least five Israeli ...The Hill - Politics - Israel -
Evening Report — Protests continue to spread on college campuses
A quick recap of the day and what to look forward to tomorrow {beacon} Evening Report © AP Pro-Palestinian protests escalate on college campuses Hundreds of students have been arrested on college campuses across the country as ...The Hill - Politics -
FCC fines wireless carriers
Presented by Microsoft — {beacon} Technology Technology PRESENTED BY The Big Story FCC fines major mobile carriers $200M The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) issued a fine totaling $200 million to the nation’s four largest mobile ...The Hill - Politics